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Pretty sure you're being downvoted by making the statement that we're orders of magnitude away, but not providing any data to back up your claim. Even with the

by dpcx 8y ago

Pretty sure you're being downvoted by making the statement that we're orders of magnitude away, but not providing any data to back up your claim. Even with the number of accidents / injuries / deaths caused by self-driving cars, without actual data, they at least seem to being doing as well as humans - though that's completely anecdotal from my side.

Semirhage 8y ago
Fair enough. https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/west/2018/02/01/479262.htm https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/west/2018/02/01/479262... The latest disengagement report showed that Waymo vehicles, in tests conducted from December 2016 through November 2017, on average logged 5,596 miles without Waymo’s safety drivers disengaging the system and retaking the wheel. Its next closest contender was Cruise, owned by General Motors Co, at 1,214 miles on average between disengagements. And later Waymo, for example, drove 352,545 miles in the state during the period with only 63 disengagements. Cruise vehicles drove about a third less, at 127,516 miles, and had 105 disengagements. The third best performance came from Nissan Motor Co , which drove 5,007 miles and had 24 disengagements, meaning that its vehicles had disengagements on average every 208 miles. The numbers fall off sharply after Nissan, with Baidu Inc at an average rate of every 41 miles, chipmaker Nvidia Corp at 4.6 miles on average, and Mercedes, with disengagements every 1.3 miles on average. Some further discussion and context: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/are-autonomous-cars-really-safer-than-human-drivers/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/are-autonomous-ca... Between mistakes a human wouldn’t make unless impaired, such as accelerating into a crash barrier or into a fire truck, and the high rate of human intervention, compared to the rate of fatal accidents per x miles humans have (1.27 per 100 million miles even including drunks, the elderly and new drivers) the argument for “safer than humans” seems utterly insupportable at this time.
- dpcx 8y ago
  That makes sense. Though, with Waymo/Cruise/etc (that are still in the testing phase - at least compared to groups like Uber and Tesla), is there any documentation on why they disengaged? Personally (again, anecdote, but still) I've seen many, many people who, when brought to a new situation while driving, will begin to panic and ultimately stop in the middle of traffic... Often during rush hour. I can imagine that the systems driving these cars could be put in to a similar position (remember the bicyclist and the Waymo car?) and need human intervention to continue.

by dpcx 8y ago

Semirhage 8y ago

Fair enough. https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/west/2018/02/01/479262.htm https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/west/2018/02/01/479262... The latest disengagement report showed that Waymo vehicles, in tests conducted from December 2016 through November 2017, on average logged 5,596 miles without Waymo’s safety drivers disengaging the system and retaking the wheel. Its next closest contender was Cruise, owned by General Motors Co, at 1,214 miles on average between disengagements. And later Waymo, for example, drove 352,545 miles in the state during the period with only 63 disengagements. Cruise vehicles drove about a third less, at 127,516 miles, and had 105 disengagements. The third best performance came from Nissan Motor Co , which drove 5,007 miles and had 24 disengagements, meaning that its vehicles had disengagements on average every 208 miles. The numbers fall off sharply after Nissan, with Baidu Inc at an average rate of every 41 miles, chipmaker Nvidia Corp at 4.6 miles on average, and Mercedes, with disengagements every 1.3 miles on average. Some further discussion and context: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/are-autonomous-cars-really-safer-than-human-drivers/ https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/are-autonomous-ca... Between mistakes a human wouldn’t make unless impaired, such as accelerating into a crash barrier or into a fire truck, and the high rate of human intervention, compared to the rate of fatal accidents per x miles humans have (1.27 per 100 million miles even including drunks, the elderly and new drivers) the argument for “safer than humans” seems utterly insupportable at this time.

dpcx 8y ago
That makes sense. Though, with Waymo/Cruise/etc (that are still in the testing phase - at least compared to groups like Uber and Tesla), is there any documentation on why they disengaged? Personally (again, anecdote, but still) I've seen many, many people who, when brought to a new situation while driving, will begin to panic and ultimately stop in the middle of traffic... Often during rush hour. I can imagine that the systems driving these cars could be put in to a similar position (remember the bicyclist and the Waymo car?) and need human intervention to continue.