It could certainly be that the German automakers are more concerned about present profitability. That could easily turn into falling victim to the classic innov

It could certainly be that the German automakers are more concerned about present profitability. That could easily turn into falling victim to the classic innovator's dilemma. It seems that by year end, both the Model S and Model 3 will have taken significant market share from their European competitors: http://europe.autonews.com/article/20180220/ANE/180219831/tesla-model-s-outsells-german-luxury-flagships-in-europe http://europe.autonews.com/article/20180220/ANE/180219831/te.... The cannibalization is real, and that's why luxury automakers like BMW have announced plans for 12 fully-electric models by 2025 (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-drive/news/industry-news/bmw-unveils-electric-car-plans-for-2021-andbeyond/article37703938/ https://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-drive/news/industry-ne...). Your points about electrical infrastructure are definitely thought-provoking ones. I'd agree that the infrastructure as of today doesn't exist for widespread adoption. At the same time, the market that Tesla and the luxury European automakers compete for today doesn't hit that 5% threshold (http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html#autosalesE http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-autosales.html#aut...). Add up the market share of car (not truck) sales from BMW, Mercedes, Audi, Porsche, and you're looking at a ~3% market share. I think this section of the video from Sandy Munro is worth a watch: https://youtu.be/CpCrkO1x-Qo?t=1730 https://youtu.be/CpCrkO1x-Qo?t=1730. Munro has been a huge critic of the build quality of the Model 3, but that everything "below the skateboard [the floor]" is seriously impressive. The cells in Tesla's battery pack have a maximum of a 0.2 milliamp difference between cells. Say that I accept your premise that the German automakers today are biding their time, and could spend their R&D money on electric cars if they so chose. Who will they source their battery packs from? Will they try to build their own supply chain for the raw materials? What competence have they demonstrated in creating electric powertrains that deliver the acceleration and speed that we expect from luxury cars? Lastly, I think your "market size estimation" here is dramatically off. BMW last year delivered 2.4 million total cars. They sold 103k "electric" vehicles last year, with 31k of the i3, and the rest probably being comprised of hybrid versions of their existing 3 and 5 series sedans. (https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/latin-america-caribbean/article/detail/T0278223EN/record-sales-for-bmw-group-worldwide-during-2017-while-it-boosts-the-premium-car-market-in-mexico-latin-america-and-the-caribbean?language=en https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/latin-america-caribbean/artic...) This was 65.6% year over year growth. For 2018, they expect "high two-digit growth" to continue. The demand is there, even from their own existing customers.