5 ms·
Your model strongly predicts that fertility of preexisting natives would be higher in areas with more unskilled immigrants. The opposite is true, and the effec
by JamisonM 8y ago
Your model strongly predicts that fertility of preexisting natives
would be higher in areas with more unskilled immigrants. The
opposite is true, and the effect is not small.
It seems like you have a lot of confounding variables to work through to make this case with such confidence, if you have research that makes this case I would like to see links to it.
- chrchang523 8y agoYes, there are confounding variables; population density in particular jumps out. But once you acknowledge that population density has enough negative causal impact through various channels on native fertility to be worth explicitly controlling for, you've already rejected mozumder's model: what effect does immigration have on population density?
- JamisonM 8y agoWhy would one acknowledge that population density has a "negative causal impact" without evidence of such? You can argue that density and fertility are correlated, sure, but causation is a much higher bar. Why would you restrict the model such that you assume that any increase in density at any starting level of density would decrease fertility? Why would you assume that without evidence?
- chrchang523 8y agoOkay, I was assuming you had at least a little bit of familiarity with the field. There are a lot of papers which cover this. Starting with a Google search on population density and fertility rate, without including "causes" in the search, the top academic results I get are: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304387817300135 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030438781... https://www.jstor.org/stable/27503981 https://www.jstor.org/stable/27503981 http://paa2004.princeton.edu/papers/41719 http://paa2004.princeton.edu/papers/41719 The population density-fertility rate assumption was not made without evidence.