What if in the future their country ia attacked by the US military for some bullshit made up claims of WMDs? If you weight the outcomes with their probabilities

What if in the future their country ia attacked by the US military for some bullshit made up claims of WMDs? If you weight the outcomes with their probabilities of occuring, they believe that the US military is a net negative. You just have a different cost function and a different pdf of certain events occuring.