6 ms·

It's a bit of a chicken-egg problem, at least from my perspective in the US, as well as a bit of a vicious cycle. I'm not optimistic. Here's why. (and also wh

It's a bit of a chicken-egg problem, at least from my perspective in the US, as well as a bit of a vicious cycle. I'm not optimistic. Here's why. (and also why I think the fix wouldn't work for many cities in the US at the current time.) In Seattle, if I want to get from a suburb on the east side into the city, during ANY trafficked time, it's going to be at least 2 busses (usually crowded, late, or full, so add another ~1), a decent amount of walking, and a 1.5-2 hour total trip. This compounds with the fact that many of the fringe buses only come once every half/hour, and not at all on weekends. Compare this to a city that had proper infrastructure to start, Philadelphia. I lived a comparative distance, and the population is MUCH higher and denser. But a 5 minute walk and a single 20-30 minute train ride put me anywhere I wanted in center city. While Seattle "has light rail" it's an honest joke next to the coverage in the north-east. As such, there's _no option_ to tax balance, it would end up being highly regressive punishing those forced to live further out and with no option but to use a car. The vicious cycle comes into play as the increased car traffic makes public transit less emphasized, convenient, and more of a perceived negative, leading to increased car traffic, etc etc. (compounded by less people wanting to take the tax burden they don't see a personal benefit to; there are a few different "tragedy of the commons" type effects in this mess.) If we had trains that could get me to work like the sister post says about Stockholm's, no need for additional motivation, I wouldn't own a car for an instant, and didn't until my mid/late 20s when I left the east coast, but that's not the reality of the cities we've built, and now we're in a bit of a hole that I'm not sure how to incentivise people out of.

NegativeLatency 8y ago
You could build more bike lanes and add transit only lanes. Build out from the city core, and expand it to outlying areas. Prove its value by showing people that alternatives to cars can actually be better. For example if there was an express buss between Bellevue and the U District that didn't have to sit behind cars crossing Lake Washington, I think it would be pretty popular. The chicken and egg problem is hard to crack. Not enough transit riders -> high car usage -> not enough transit riders -> ... If we all throw up our hands and say "too hard" it's only going to get worse. Growing up in Seattle and Tacoma, it was pretty frustrating to hear about the supposed light rail connection between the two that's been promised and delayed countless times over the last 20+ years. See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seattle_process https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seattle_process
- existencebox 8y ago
  A lot of me wonders if the root is less a lack of specifically transit, and more of the broader oft-discussed problem of decaying ability to efficiently build public infrastructure/motivate capital improvements. Novelty hill rd in the NE was supposed to be 4 lanes, even through the switchback, but because of bad contractor (likely back-scratching internally) and a lack of contractual protections, 4 lanes were paid for but 2 were obtained. If we can't even do simple things right (that road typically bottlenecks for ~20-30 miles straight during rush hour, and is single lane, so no bus advantage) and your aformentioned rail link, it's really a moot point, so the focus might need to be on governance than on the transit itself. (To address your suggestions, I agree that dedicated bus lanes might be helpful, but worry that given the respective usage volumes 1. would it be effective and 2. can you convince everyone else potential further limitation to their lanes is worth it?. Not to say "throw hands up" but it might need to come coupled with a proposal to offer more car bandwidth. I've always been skeptical of bike lanes on the longer-haul lines outside of city centers, because at least for the area I live in with huge gaps between "stuff", (and with our weather/geography) it's not a feasible form of long-term travel for most people, even for things like picking up groceries. If it can be built without impacting road bandwidth/significantly increasing cost, I obviously see that as a plus, but I'd need to be convinced that the tradeoff actually provided the right outcome. My focus is typically on rail build-out, improving bus usage, and aforementioned governance/efficiency, as these seem to align incentives pretty well among various groups of transit users.)
- sbov 8y ago
  Yeah, LA has a lot of commuter express buses from the suburbs that only have 3-4 stops. The problem is you're stuck in the same freeway traffic that everyone else is. Despite this, I know several people taking these buses, which are ~2.5 hour one way trips during rush hour.
  - DuskStar 8y ago
    LA also seems to be building a ton of rail. The Expo Line to Santa Monica was completed recently, and they're currently building the Crenshaw Line to LAX, the Purple Line extension into Beverly Hills, and a new set of stations downtown with more in the pipeline.
zkms 8y ago
> it would end up being highly regressive punishing those forced to live further out and with no option but to use a car I feel like zoning regulations that altogether prohibit housing density in US cities play an extremely large part in this, and that shitty US transit and strict land-use regulations in US are not two independent phenomena. Allowing landowners to build apartments (or single-family homes on very small lots with high lot coverage and no setbacks, or duplexes/triplexes/quadplexes, etc) with density commensurate with the market need allows transit to suck far less (as does letting transit operators to build their rights-of-way along sensical alignments and allowing commercial density around train stations).
Karrot_Kream 8y ago
Zoning is the problem, especially parking minimums. Not only are areas zoned to only allow single-family homes (thus reducing density), but many zoning codes mandate a certain number of parking spots for every new business, leading to a car-centric lifestyle.
- lev99 8y ago
  I read about this a lot, but looking at different cities from airplane windows really drives this factor home.
- gowld 8y ago
  Put another way, letting people live in comfortable homes, free of noise, light, and smell pollution from neighbors, has transit costs. Having a miserable home in order to get fast commutes isn't a trade everyone wants.
  - freeone3000 8y ago
    While this may be true, I'd like to see some unrented apartments in major cities that can't be filled before we decry this solution. Rents have been skyrocketing - so it appears there's a lot of people who WOULD like this trade, but can't do it.
  - Karrot_Kream 8y ago
    Right now there's very little around the US that's in the middle. On the one hand there's urban areas with no parking-minimums, mixed-use zoning, and cramped development. On the other is suburban and rural areas where there are strict parking minimums and single-family homes everywhere. A more reasonable way to develop a city would be to have a cramped, urban core where everything is well connected, has low parking minimums, and minimal zoning restrictions, surrounded by areas of gradually decreasing density, and holding parking in "rings" around these areas. In my mind, I'd like to organize the city in these rings: walkable, bikable, short-drive/suburban, long-drive/rural. The big issue is the US has made up-zoning impossible. There are no mandatory zoning changes as people move to an area, or anything of that nature. Add to this that many American homeowners derive a significant portion of their equity from their house value and you have a situation where it is very difficult for any area of the US to expand to accommodate to an influx of population.
lev99 8y ago
> In Seattle Seattle is a really bad example if you want to talk about poor public transportation. Seattle is one of the few places where bus ridership is increasing. Living anywhere with 5 miles of downtown (beside some areas divided by water) makes having a car somewhere between optional and inconvenient. It's one of the few places where bus ridership is increasing, and Sound Transit 3's implementation will make the Link Light Rail much more accessible. The number of bike trails and separated bike paths is arguably at the point where we might have too many for bike ridership levels. The city is very anticar, increasing the area where minimum parking requirements are not required, making bus only lanes in high traffic downtown areas, and talking about a downtown toll. Saying it takes 1.5-2 hours to ride a bus from the east side to the city ignores the fact that it takes more than an hour to do so in a car. Not to mention how important the I 90 floating bridge light rail project is to further connect the east side to the city. Transportation sucks in Seattle because of the population growth and the lack of investment in the 60s and 70s. Most of the things Seattle and King County has done in the last 20 years in regards to public transportation is correct with a few notable but not critical exceptions.
- existencebox 8y ago
  I will candidly admit I've only had 5 years of context, but in those 5 years, while bus ridership may be increasing, my perception has not been that it's proportional to population growth, and a brief look at the data seems to back this up. (comparing % growth of ridership to % growth in population over the last 10~ years) [0][1] I don't want to come across as to criticize growth and progress, I don't have enough knowledge on what was done to address that. I just don't find the results to be sufficient; as you said, population growth is a huge factor, and that's what renders this a pressing issue. I agree that we're probably paying for a lack of investment; to the point of my comparison with Philadelphia where the infrastructure was in place. I'd reference my other comment questioning governance, since while you say a few notable but not critical exceptions, I find massive build-out times (Overlake Transit Center, for instance, will be closed until 2023, assuming I'm not confusing dates), lack of funding (discussed this issue at a local city council meeting, apparently it's partly a state/federal problem), and mismanagement (see other comment) to be quite prevelent. I may well be seeing a small slice of this, but my slice's commute is looking anywhere but up, even considering future development. I'd also add that I didn't ignore that it takes an hour in the car. I'd agree, it takes an hour in a car. But you're in your own car, which many people see as a positive despite the mental overhead of driving, and that's still less time, variance, and inconvenience than the bus. I can only speak to the # of cars I see in the lots at work, these are clearly sufficient dis-incentives to the bus as it currently exists, and we can't ignore that if we want to improve the situation. (I'd also note that your mention of "less than 5 miles of downtown" makes me think we may be looking at very different strata of things; perhaps I should have said initially "Seattle Area", the trains I was referring to in Philly go 20+ miles out in many directions) [0]https://www.kingcounty.gov/independent/forecasting/King%20County%20Economic%20Indicators/KC%20Population.aspx https://www.kingcounty.gov/independent/forecasting/King%20Co... [1]https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Qyj31NiW1kc30GX9PCNrmnAn_EEmPn8WaUB_NMkYCQE/pubhtml https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Qyj31NiW1kc30GX9PCNr...
Fire-Dragon-DoL 8y ago
Can't you tax all the people which have a car and are close to public transportation that makes center accessible, with those taxes finance public transit expansion and slowly tax people close to the new expansion?

NegativeLatency 8y ago

You could build more bike lanes and add transit only lanes. Build out from the city core, and expand it to outlying areas. Prove its value by showing people that alternatives to cars can actually be better. For example if there was an express buss between Bellevue and the U District that didn't have to sit behind cars crossing Lake Washington, I think it would be pretty popular. The chicken and egg problem is hard to crack. Not enough transit riders -> high car usage -> not enough transit riders -> ... If we all throw up our hands and say "too hard" it's only going to get worse. Growing up in Seattle and Tacoma, it was pretty frustrating to hear about the supposed light rail connection between the two that's been promised and delayed countless times over the last 20+ years. See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seattle_process https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seattle_process

existencebox 8y ago
A lot of me wonders if the root is less a lack of specifically transit, and more of the broader oft-discussed problem of decaying ability to efficiently build public infrastructure/motivate capital improvements. Novelty hill rd in the NE was supposed to be 4 lanes, even through the switchback, but because of bad contractor (likely back-scratching internally) and a lack of contractual protections, 4 lanes were paid for but 2 were obtained. If we can't even do simple things right (that road typically bottlenecks for ~20-30 miles straight during rush hour, and is single lane, so no bus advantage) and your aformentioned rail link, it's really a moot point, so the focus might need to be on governance than on the transit itself. (To address your suggestions, I agree that dedicated bus lanes might be helpful, but worry that given the respective usage volumes 1. would it be effective and 2. can you convince everyone else potential further limitation to their lanes is worth it?. Not to say "throw hands up" but it might need to come coupled with a proposal to offer more car bandwidth. I've always been skeptical of bike lanes on the longer-haul lines outside of city centers, because at least for the area I live in with huge gaps between "stuff", (and with our weather/geography) it's not a feasible form of long-term travel for most people, even for things like picking up groceries. If it can be built without impacting road bandwidth/significantly increasing cost, I obviously see that as a plus, but I'd need to be convinced that the tradeoff actually provided the right outcome. My focus is typically on rail build-out, improving bus usage, and aforementioned governance/efficiency, as these seem to align incentives pretty well among various groups of transit users.)
sbov 8y ago
Yeah, LA has a lot of commuter express buses from the suburbs that only have 3-4 stops. The problem is you're stuck in the same freeway traffic that everyone else is. Despite this, I know several people taking these buses, which are ~2.5 hour one way trips during rush hour.
- DuskStar 8y ago
  LA also seems to be building a ton of rail. The Expo Line to Santa Monica was completed recently, and they're currently building the Crenshaw Line to LAX, the Purple Line extension into Beverly Hills, and a new set of stations downtown with more in the pipeline.

zkms 8y ago

> it would end up being highly regressive punishing those forced to live further out and with no option but to use a car I feel like zoning regulations that altogether prohibit housing density in US cities play an extremely large part in this, and that shitty US transit and strict land-use regulations in US are not two independent phenomena. Allowing landowners to build apartments (or single-family homes on very small lots with high lot coverage and no setbacks, or duplexes/triplexes/quadplexes, etc) with density commensurate with the market need allows transit to suck far less (as does letting transit operators to build their rights-of-way along sensical alignments and allowing commercial density around train stations).

Karrot_Kream 8y ago

Zoning is the problem, especially parking minimums. Not only are areas zoned to only allow single-family homes (thus reducing density), but many zoning codes mandate a certain number of parking spots for every new business, leading to a car-centric lifestyle.

lev99 8y ago
I read about this a lot, but looking at different cities from airplane windows really drives this factor home.
gowld 8y ago
Put another way, letting people live in comfortable homes, free of noise, light, and smell pollution from neighbors, has transit costs. Having a miserable home in order to get fast commutes isn't a trade everyone wants.
- freeone3000 8y ago
  While this may be true, I'd like to see some unrented apartments in major cities that can't be filled before we decry this solution. Rents have been skyrocketing - so it appears there's a lot of people who WOULD like this trade, but can't do it.
- Karrot_Kream 8y ago
  Right now there's very little around the US that's in the middle. On the one hand there's urban areas with no parking-minimums, mixed-use zoning, and cramped development. On the other is suburban and rural areas where there are strict parking minimums and single-family homes everywhere. A more reasonable way to develop a city would be to have a cramped, urban core where everything is well connected, has low parking minimums, and minimal zoning restrictions, surrounded by areas of gradually decreasing density, and holding parking in "rings" around these areas. In my mind, I'd like to organize the city in these rings: walkable, bikable, short-drive/suburban, long-drive/rural. The big issue is the US has made up-zoning impossible. There are no mandatory zoning changes as people move to an area, or anything of that nature. Add to this that many American homeowners derive a significant portion of their equity from their house value and you have a situation where it is very difficult for any area of the US to expand to accommodate to an influx of population.

lev99 8y ago

> In Seattle Seattle is a really bad example if you want to talk about poor public transportation. Seattle is one of the few places where bus ridership is increasing. Living anywhere with 5 miles of downtown (beside some areas divided by water) makes having a car somewhere between optional and inconvenient. It's one of the few places where bus ridership is increasing, and Sound Transit 3's implementation will make the Link Light Rail much more accessible. The number of bike trails and separated bike paths is arguably at the point where we might have too many for bike ridership levels. The city is very anticar, increasing the area where minimum parking requirements are not required, making bus only lanes in high traffic downtown areas, and talking about a downtown toll. Saying it takes 1.5-2 hours to ride a bus from the east side to the city ignores the fact that it takes more than an hour to do so in a car. Not to mention how important the I 90 floating bridge light rail project is to further connect the east side to the city. Transportation sucks in Seattle because of the population growth and the lack of investment in the 60s and 70s. Most of the things Seattle and King County has done in the last 20 years in regards to public transportation is correct with a few notable but not critical exceptions.

existencebox 8y ago
I will candidly admit I've only had 5 years of context, but in those 5 years, while bus ridership may be increasing, my perception has not been that it's proportional to population growth, and a brief look at the data seems to back this up. (comparing % growth of ridership to % growth in population over the last 10~ years) [0][1] I don't want to come across as to criticize growth and progress, I don't have enough knowledge on what was done to address that. I just don't find the results to be sufficient; as you said, population growth is a huge factor, and that's what renders this a pressing issue. I agree that we're probably paying for a lack of investment; to the point of my comparison with Philadelphia where the infrastructure was in place. I'd reference my other comment questioning governance, since while you say a few notable but not critical exceptions, I find massive build-out times (Overlake Transit Center, for instance, will be closed until 2023, assuming I'm not confusing dates), lack of funding (discussed this issue at a local city council meeting, apparently it's partly a state/federal problem), and mismanagement (see other comment) to be quite prevelent. I may well be seeing a small slice of this, but my slice's commute is looking anywhere but up, even considering future development. I'd also add that I didn't ignore that it takes an hour in the car. I'd agree, it takes an hour in a car. But you're in your own car, which many people see as a positive despite the mental overhead of driving, and that's still less time, variance, and inconvenience than the bus. I can only speak to the # of cars I see in the lots at work, these are clearly sufficient dis-incentives to the bus as it currently exists, and we can't ignore that if we want to improve the situation. (I'd also note that your mention of "less than 5 miles of downtown" makes me think we may be looking at very different strata of things; perhaps I should have said initially "Seattle Area", the trains I was referring to in Philly go 20+ miles out in many directions) [0]https://www.kingcounty.gov/independent/forecasting/King%20County%20Economic%20Indicators/KC%20Population.aspx https://www.kingcounty.gov/independent/forecasting/King%20Co... [1]https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Qyj31NiW1kc30GX9PCNrmnAn_EEmPn8WaUB_NMkYCQE/pubhtml https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Qyj31NiW1kc30GX9PCNr...

Fire-Dragon-DoL 8y ago

Can't you tax all the people which have a car and are close to public transportation that makes center accessible, with those taxes finance public transit expansion and slowly tax people close to the new expansion?