4 ms·

Wow. That's such a supreme indicator of overconfidence--the belief that I and I alone am so competent that I don't need safeguards. I would not have hoped that

Wow. That's such a supreme indicator of overconfidence--the belief that I and I alone am so competent that I don't need safeguards. I would not have hoped that a high percentage of surgeons have that trait. I wonder if I am guilty of it as well. Something to examine in the mirror in our future endeavors.

supertrope 8y ago
I like to use the term Dunning-Kruger instead of over-confidence or hubris to describe it. Everyone thinks they demonstrate above average skill. During the 2007-2009 financial crisis every single financial services firm justified their executive bonuses by claiming their personnel were above average. Very few car drivers consider themselves below average. Before germ theory gained acceptance or was even understood, physicians and surgeons considered themselves above hand washing as a gentleman's hands are always clean. Ignaz Semmelweis discovered that washing hands and tools in chlorine solution reduced childbirth deaths. But he was unable to convince others. In modern times doctors have answered a survey on the effect of pharmaceutical representatives visit. The overwhelming majority responded that they are not swayed by drug saleswomen, but that other docs are susceptible to choosing a prescription drug because of salesmanship instead of only efficacy & risk.
- inimino 8y ago
  These are examples of illusory superiority[1], or the "Lake Wobegone effect". [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_superiority https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_superiority Dunning-Kruger is something more specific, that people with lower skill in an area overestimate their skill, because they are unable to distinguish competence in that area.
- taneq 8y ago
  It's not the Dunning-Kruger effect because it's overconfidence expressed by highly trained, highly competent experts about their own performance compared to their peers. If anything it's "skilled and too aware of it" rather than "unskilled and unaware of it".
- shanghaiaway 8y ago
  >I like to use the term Dunning-Kruger instead of over-confidence or hubris to describe it. Everyone thinks they demonstrate above average skill. On HN, everyone thinks that everyone but themselves are affected by Dunning Kruger. In fact, calling out Dunning Kruger in others is a symptom of someone under the very same effect.
- vertexFarm 8y ago
  Good points. I feel like in the surgeon's case it's subtly but significantly different, though; these people aren't ignorant amateurs, they're highly trained professionals who do actual work on human bodies, with all the problem-solving skills and knowledge that implies. By all accounts they should be able to accurately assess their own abilities, as opposed to people affected by Dunning-Kruger. I think it's important to be mindful of hubris among the competent as well, perhaps more so because they are the ones actually doing the work in the end. The effects you talk about definitely exist and I feel like a lot of those are arrogance, or possibly even our fundamental inability to observe without bias unless we take very careful precautions ahead of time. Perhaps doctors otherwise used to proper experimental control and thinking scientifically didn't apply the same precautions ahead of meeting with sales reps, because that appeared to be out of context of practicing medicine at the time, even though it is still part of the process. Apparently they are affected by bias without being aware of it. This is wholly conjecture on my part.

supertrope 8y ago

I like to use the term Dunning-Kruger instead of over-confidence or hubris to describe it. Everyone thinks they demonstrate above average skill. During the 2007-2009 financial crisis every single financial services firm justified their executive bonuses by claiming their personnel were above average. Very few car drivers consider themselves below average. Before germ theory gained acceptance or was even understood, physicians and surgeons considered themselves above hand washing as a gentleman's hands are always clean. Ignaz Semmelweis discovered that washing hands and tools in chlorine solution reduced childbirth deaths. But he was unable to convince others. In modern times doctors have answered a survey on the effect of pharmaceutical representatives visit. The overwhelming majority responded that they are not swayed by drug saleswomen, but that other docs are susceptible to choosing a prescription drug because of salesmanship instead of only efficacy & risk.

inimino 8y ago
These are examples of illusory superiority[1], or the "Lake Wobegone effect". [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_superiority https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Illusory_superiority Dunning-Kruger is something more specific, that people with lower skill in an area overestimate their skill, because they are unable to distinguish competence in that area.
taneq 8y ago
It's not the Dunning-Kruger effect because it's overconfidence expressed by highly trained, highly competent experts about their own performance compared to their peers. If anything it's "skilled and too aware of it" rather than "unskilled and unaware of it".
shanghaiaway 8y ago
>I like to use the term Dunning-Kruger instead of over-confidence or hubris to describe it. Everyone thinks they demonstrate above average skill. On HN, everyone thinks that everyone but themselves are affected by Dunning Kruger. In fact, calling out Dunning Kruger in others is a symptom of someone under the very same effect.
vertexFarm 8y ago
Good points. I feel like in the surgeon's case it's subtly but significantly different, though; these people aren't ignorant amateurs, they're highly trained professionals who do actual work on human bodies, with all the problem-solving skills and knowledge that implies. By all accounts they should be able to accurately assess their own abilities, as opposed to people affected by Dunning-Kruger. I think it's important to be mindful of hubris among the competent as well, perhaps more so because they are the ones actually doing the work in the end. The effects you talk about definitely exist and I feel like a lot of those are arrogance, or possibly even our fundamental inability to observe without bias unless we take very careful precautions ahead of time. Perhaps doctors otherwise used to proper experimental control and thinking scientifically didn't apply the same precautions ahead of meeting with sales reps, because that appeared to be out of context of practicing medicine at the time, even though it is still part of the process. Apparently they are affected by bias without being aware of it. This is wholly conjecture on my part.