I'm not arguing whether you've done better than the S&P 500 in the past three years. I am predicting with a high degree of certainty that you will not do so ov

I'm not arguing whether you've done better than the S&P 500 in the past three years. I am predicting with a high degree of certainty that you will not do so over 30 years (unless you sell right now while you're ahead and reinvest in the S&P 500). edit to reply to your edit: >Show me a 30 year period where the market wasn't bullish. Bear markets are short lived, they key is just to stay in and not be stupid and sell. That's the argument for investing in an index. Individual stocks will come and go through these market cycles, but the index will average out ahead. If one is capable of predicting these individual stocks, power to them. You clearly think that you are one of these investing powerhouses and will not be convinced otherwise. Best of luck.