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>I have been disregarding this very prominent advice since 2015. I am up over 200% since then, and up 40% YTD. Doing well over 3 years in a bull market is not

by tyrust 8y ago

>I have been disregarding this very prominent advice since 2015. I am up over 200% since then, and up 40% YTD. Doing well over 3 years in a bull market is not very impressive. If you can beat the market over 30 years and through bear markets then you're a force to be reckoned with. >Warren Buffett didn't get where he is today investing in ETF's and mutual funds None of us here are Warren Buffett. Most of us here are working full time jobs as software engineers, not investors.

jaxtellerSoA 8y ago
>Doing well over 3 years in a bull market is not very impressive. If you can beat the market over 30 years and through bear markets then you're a force to be reckoned with. It is a hell a lot better returns than simply investing in the S&P 500 for the past 3 years. Show me a 30 year period where the market wasn't bullish. Bear markets are short lived, they key is just to stay in and not be stupid and sell.
- tyrust 8y ago
  I'm not arguing whether you've done better than the S&P 500 in the past three years. I am predicting with a high degree of certainty that you will not do so over 30 years (unless you sell right now while you're ahead and reinvest in the S&P 500). edit to reply to your edit: >Show me a 30 year period where the market wasn't bullish. Bear markets are short lived, they key is just to stay in and not be stupid and sell. That's the argument for investing in an index. Individual stocks will come and go through these market cycles, but the index will average out ahead. If one is capable of predicting these individual stocks, power to them. You clearly think that you are one of these investing powerhouses and will not be convinced otherwise. Best of luck.
  - dominotw 8y ago
    > I am predicting with a high degree of certainty that you will not do so over 30 years What is the basis of this prediction ? That index fund are more diversified that individual stock picks?
    - tyrust 8y ago
      Yes, combined with the fact that some HN poster touting three years of sick gains probably isn't able to beat a highly diversified portfolio.

by tyrust 8y ago

jaxtellerSoA 8y ago

>Doing well over 3 years in a bull market is not very impressive. If you can beat the market over 30 years and through bear markets then you're a force to be reckoned with. It is a hell a lot better returns than simply investing in the S&P 500 for the past 3 years. Show me a 30 year period where the market wasn't bullish. Bear markets are short lived, they key is just to stay in and not be stupid and sell.

tyrust 8y ago
I'm not arguing whether you've done better than the S&P 500 in the past three years. I am predicting with a high degree of certainty that you will not do so over 30 years (unless you sell right now while you're ahead and reinvest in the S&P 500). edit to reply to your edit: >Show me a 30 year period where the market wasn't bullish. Bear markets are short lived, they key is just to stay in and not be stupid and sell. That's the argument for investing in an index. Individual stocks will come and go through these market cycles, but the index will average out ahead. If one is capable of predicting these individual stocks, power to them. You clearly think that you are one of these investing powerhouses and will not be convinced otherwise. Best of luck.
- dominotw 8y ago
  > I am predicting with a high degree of certainty that you will not do so over 30 years What is the basis of this prediction ? That index fund are more diversified that individual stock picks?
  - tyrust 8y ago
    Yes, combined with the fact that some HN poster touting three years of sick gains probably isn't able to beat a highly diversified portfolio.