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Hear, hear. In fact, anyone who can disregard the history of past predictions (in energy or almost anything else) so much as to bother with a 32-years-out pred
by rossdavidh 8y ago
Hear, hear. In fact, anyone who can disregard the history of past predictions (in energy or almost anything else) so much as to bother with a 32-years-out prediction, seems untrustworthy.
Also, unlikely to persuade anyone of anything. It's a pretty well-known feature of human psychology that distant prospects don't motivate us the way they should. Actually, maybe the unreliability of long-term predictions is part of why we evolved to be like that...
- killjoywashere 8y agoJust finished reading that chapter of the The Black Swan. True, the 32-year year number is useless, but the slope is probably still good for the next couple of years. Of course the negative uncertainties still dominate. The more interesting question is how do you expose yourself to the positive uncertainties involved (e.g. a carbon negative power technology)? This requires investment in research in parallel with your infrastructure investments.