3 ms·

This is simple mathematics. If your birthrate is below replacement rate, pretty soon your population's births will outnumber its deaths. The only reason the U

This is simple mathematics. If your birthrate is below replacement rate, pretty soon your population's births will outnumber its deaths. The only reason the United States hasn't seen a shrinking population (and stagnating economy) like much of Europe and Japan is due to immigration: https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/11/10/16631980/fertility-immigration-economics-growth-family-friendly https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/11/10/16631980/fertili...

txsh 8y ago
Exactly. Population deceleration is a global crisis and virtually nobody is talking about it. It could mean the end of Western civilization. Our governments are built upon the assumption that the population will continue to increase, that there will be more taxpayers tomorrow to shoulder the burden of today’s spending. When the population begins to decrease in a few decades, every successive generation will have a lower standard of living than the one that proceded it. Having children will become more expensive which will lead to even more decline. Western countries will enter a death spiral and might never escape.
- derping_hacker 8y ago
  You're implying that technology won't be able to increase productivity. One of the biggest topics people are talking about is automation taking jobs, so why do we need to worry about population size? Human population grows exponentially, earth has finite resources. Constant population growth is suicidal.
  - candiodari 8y ago
    > You're implying that technology won't be able to increase productivity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secular_stagnation_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secular_stagnation_theory A component of which is the observation that real production growth has been essentially zero since the 1980s. So clearly you can have technological advances without any productivity growth. > Human population grows exponentially, earth has finite resources. Constant population growth is suicidal. Not nearly as suicidal as population decline, obviously. More nuanced, there are plenty of species, and races within species, that refuse to have their population grow. It doesn't end well.
    - txsh 8y ago
      > So clearly you can have technological advances without any productivity growth. A little perspective is required. From the 1860’s to the 1960’s we went from candles and horses to computers and the moon landing. In the past 50 years nothing comparable to electricity, automobiles, flight, space flight, antibiotics, refrigeration, computers, telephones, radio, nuclear power, etc. has been invented. We have only refined technology invented by our great grandparents. Our civilization is stagnant and incapable of producing the kind of people who can move us forward. And, when the population begins to decline, we’ll begin to regress. Our great grandchildren might only read about airplanes in books.
- lossolo 8y ago
  > Population deceleration is a global crisis Earth (global) problem is overpopulation. Depopulation is only a problem for western civilization/highly developed countries. Ask India, China or African countries do they need more citizens.
  - ElectricalPast 8y ago
    You are correct - developing nations such as China, India, and many countries in Africa do need more people in order to grow. Unfortunately, current models show their growth ending before they are wealthy. In other words - there's a good chance these countries will get old before they get rich. China is #1 example of this: http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-birth-limits-lifting-them-wont-help-worker-shortage-2018-5-1025100162 http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-birth-l...
Jayvino 8y ago
Your thread is gone from the front page now, even though it was getting a lot of votes.
candiodari 8y ago
Integration is the central story every government in Europe is preaching. It doesn't seem to be happening (and where it does, not nearly fast enough to matter). Now you might say "so they don't have your culture, big deal". No, that's not what I mean. I mean middle eastern sections in big european cities have unemployment rates that are only a little better than middle eastern cities, and that simply won't work. Effectively, with the numbers as they are, immigrants are largely a negative influence, purely economically speaking: they're a drag rather than a gain. Needless to say, given the political climate shift currently going through Europe, nobody likes reporting this, as it seems rather unlikely to improve anything.
- ElectricalPast 8y ago
  First - I said nothing about integration. But if we're going down that road, Second - America has been absorbing and integrating millions of people throughout its history and has only been the wealthier for it.
- uoaei 8y ago
  Europe doesn't quite know what to do with the massive influx of new faces. Governments say 'integration' but they shove them off into corners of the city because they can't afford to take the city housing from the established population. America was literally built by people showing up and carving out a life for themselves. There is something about the culture that offers more room for that to happen once you arrive.

txsh 8y ago

Exactly. Population deceleration is a global crisis and virtually nobody is talking about it. It could mean the end of Western civilization. Our governments are built upon the assumption that the population will continue to increase, that there will be more taxpayers tomorrow to shoulder the burden of today’s spending. When the population begins to decrease in a few decades, every successive generation will have a lower standard of living than the one that proceded it. Having children will become more expensive which will lead to even more decline. Western countries will enter a death spiral and might never escape.

derping_hacker 8y ago
You're implying that technology won't be able to increase productivity. One of the biggest topics people are talking about is automation taking jobs, so why do we need to worry about population size? Human population grows exponentially, earth has finite resources. Constant population growth is suicidal.
- candiodari 8y ago
  > You're implying that technology won't be able to increase productivity https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secular_stagnation_theory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secular_stagnation_theory A component of which is the observation that real production growth has been essentially zero since the 1980s. So clearly you can have technological advances without any productivity growth. > Human population grows exponentially, earth has finite resources. Constant population growth is suicidal. Not nearly as suicidal as population decline, obviously. More nuanced, there are plenty of species, and races within species, that refuse to have their population grow. It doesn't end well.
  - txsh 8y ago
    > So clearly you can have technological advances without any productivity growth. A little perspective is required. From the 1860’s to the 1960’s we went from candles and horses to computers and the moon landing. In the past 50 years nothing comparable to electricity, automobiles, flight, space flight, antibiotics, refrigeration, computers, telephones, radio, nuclear power, etc. has been invented. We have only refined technology invented by our great grandparents. Our civilization is stagnant and incapable of producing the kind of people who can move us forward. And, when the population begins to decline, we’ll begin to regress. Our great grandchildren might only read about airplanes in books.
lossolo 8y ago
> Population deceleration is a global crisis Earth (global) problem is overpopulation. Depopulation is only a problem for western civilization/highly developed countries. Ask India, China or African countries do they need more citizens.
- ElectricalPast 8y ago
  You are correct - developing nations such as China, India, and many countries in Africa do need more people in order to grow. Unfortunately, current models show their growth ending before they are wealthy. In other words - there's a good chance these countries will get old before they get rich. China is #1 example of this: http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-birth-limits-lifting-them-wont-help-worker-shortage-2018-5-1025100162 http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-birth-l...

Jayvino 8y ago

Your thread is gone from the front page now, even though it was getting a lot of votes.

candiodari 8y ago

Integration is the central story every government in Europe is preaching. It doesn't seem to be happening (and where it does, not nearly fast enough to matter). Now you might say "so they don't have your culture, big deal". No, that's not what I mean. I mean middle eastern sections in big european cities have unemployment rates that are only a little better than middle eastern cities, and that simply won't work. Effectively, with the numbers as they are, immigrants are largely a negative influence, purely economically speaking: they're a drag rather than a gain. Needless to say, given the political climate shift currently going through Europe, nobody likes reporting this, as it seems rather unlikely to improve anything.

ElectricalPast 8y ago
First - I said nothing about integration. But if we're going down that road, Second - America has been absorbing and integrating millions of people throughout its history and has only been the wealthier for it.
uoaei 8y ago
Europe doesn't quite know what to do with the massive influx of new faces. Governments say 'integration' but they shove them off into corners of the city because they can't afford to take the city housing from the established population. America was literally built by people showing up and carving out a life for themselves. There is something about the culture that offers more room for that to happen once you arrive.