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Does anyone know of a publicly available resource one can use to determine how likely a number was randomly generated by a human? Wired [1] had a high-level app

Does anyone know of a publicly available resource one can use to determine how likely a number was randomly generated by a human? Wired [1] had a high-level approach and it seems like this paper [2] has some interesting ideas as well. Humans are truly poor at creating random numbers [3] and I wonder how well 1,968,538,584.82 and 576,528,652.00 would do in such a test. [1] http://www.wired.co.uk/article/how-to-detect-fake-numbers http://www.wired.co.uk/article/how-to-detect-fake-numbers [2] http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0041531 http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.... [3] http://www.loper-os.org/bad-at-entropy/manmach.html http://www.loper-os.org/bad-at-entropy/manmach.html

bhouston 8y ago
I am pretty sure the money exists in the bank account.
craigc 8y ago
I hope you do realize that the idea that the two large numbers were randomly chosen to represent funds in a bank account that doesn’t exist, and a law firm founded by three formal federal judges (one who was a former FBI director) reported and lied about it to mislead the public, is many many times more improbable than the idea that the Tether actually holds this amount of US dollars. That is one thing I find so crazy about the entire thing — the fact that they are backed 1:1 is the simplest possible explanation and yet the conspiracy that they were created out of thin air to artificially prop up the price of bitcoin is more believable to many/most people here. Just so you know money is created out of thin air by the federal reserve every day and much of it is used to prop up the stock market. I’m not saying that to defend it or imply it is happening here. I just think it’s ironic cause no one is claiming that the stock market is overly inflated or that the federal reserve should go to prison even though there is proof there that it happens. FWIW the stock market has a market cap around $30 trillion. Bitcoin alone is around $115 billion. Big price fluctuations are much more likely with a small supply and small market cap.
- ceejayoz 8y ago
  In a previous thread (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17304571 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17304571) it became apparent you've fallen for Tether's misinformation to the point where you believed they'd passed an audit. Again, they have completed zero of the "frequent" audits they claim on their website. Is it possible you see objections to Tether as "so crazy" because of this sort of fraud on Tether's part?
  - craigc 8y ago
    Just because I was wrong about that one thing doesn’t make what I just said any less true. You have yet to provide any evidence that they are not backed by USD. Just because they haven’t had an audit doesn’t prove any of your allegations. Why do you have it in for Tether so much in the first place?
    - ceejayoz 8y ago
      > Just because I was wrong about that one thing doesn’t make what I just said any less true. It's evidence of credulity where Tether is concerned. > You have yet to provide any evidence that they are not backed by USD. The onus is on Tether. "We have taken in two billion dollars, but can't find an auditor to say so, so here's a non-audit while we keep the 'frequent professional audits' statement up on our site" is outright fraud. Your threshold for claims made by proven fraudsters is remarkably low. > Why do you have it in for Tether so much in the first place? I don't like being lied to, especially when billions of dollars are at stake.
      - craigc 8y ago
        > I don't like being lied to, especially when billions of dollars are at stake. That’s totally understandable and fair. I also agree it is partially on them to prove that they can be trusted and I think this report today is a step in the right direction. That said, there is still no hard proof that they have been lying and I like to believe they are innocent until proven guilty. Also Tether can’t fully explain the run up in prices last year since Tether only accounts for some of the crypto trading volume, and many people still paid USD to buy Bitcoin and other cryptos last year.

bhouston 8y ago

I am pretty sure the money exists in the bank account.

craigc 8y ago

I hope you do realize that the idea that the two large numbers were randomly chosen to represent funds in a bank account that doesn’t exist, and a law firm founded by three formal federal judges (one who was a former FBI director) reported and lied about it to mislead the public, is many many times more improbable than the idea that the Tether actually holds this amount of US dollars. That is one thing I find so crazy about the entire thing — the fact that they are backed 1:1 is the simplest possible explanation and yet the conspiracy that they were created out of thin air to artificially prop up the price of bitcoin is more believable to many/most people here. Just so you know money is created out of thin air by the federal reserve every day and much of it is used to prop up the stock market. I’m not saying that to defend it or imply it is happening here. I just think it’s ironic cause no one is claiming that the stock market is overly inflated or that the federal reserve should go to prison even though there is proof there that it happens. FWIW the stock market has a market cap around $30 trillion. Bitcoin alone is around $115 billion. Big price fluctuations are much more likely with a small supply and small market cap.

ceejayoz 8y ago
In a previous thread (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17304571 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17304571) it became apparent you've fallen for Tether's misinformation to the point where you believed they'd passed an audit. Again, they have completed zero of the "frequent" audits they claim on their website. Is it possible you see objections to Tether as "so crazy" because of this sort of fraud on Tether's part?
- craigc 8y ago
  Just because I was wrong about that one thing doesn’t make what I just said any less true. You have yet to provide any evidence that they are not backed by USD. Just because they haven’t had an audit doesn’t prove any of your allegations. Why do you have it in for Tether so much in the first place?
  - ceejayoz 8y ago
    > Just because I was wrong about that one thing doesn’t make what I just said any less true. It's evidence of credulity where Tether is concerned. > You have yet to provide any evidence that they are not backed by USD. The onus is on Tether. "We have taken in two billion dollars, but can't find an auditor to say so, so here's a non-audit while we keep the 'frequent professional audits' statement up on our site" is outright fraud. Your threshold for claims made by proven fraudsters is remarkably low. > Why do you have it in for Tether so much in the first place? I don't like being lied to, especially when billions of dollars are at stake.
    - craigc 8y ago
      > I don't like being lied to, especially when billions of dollars are at stake. That’s totally understandable and fair. I also agree it is partially on them to prove that they can be trusted and I think this report today is a step in the right direction. That said, there is still no hard proof that they have been lying and I like to believe they are innocent until proven guilty. Also Tether can’t fully explain the run up in prices last year since Tether only accounts for some of the crypto trading volume, and many people still paid USD to buy Bitcoin and other cryptos last year.