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We as a society just need to focus on getting out of this local minima that we are stuck in. It is clear to any of us here on HN that autonomous cars will resul
by genericone 8y ago
We as a society just need to focus on getting out of this local minima that we are stuck in. It is clear to any of us here on HN that autonomous cars will result in fewer deaths, I have no doubts about that whatsoever, humans are statistically terrible drivers. It will only be when the data becomes clear that autonomous vehicles (Uber at the bottom, Waymo at the top currently) are better than humans, that naysayers will not be able to fight this. There is not enough data at this point to fight naysayers. The argument will necessarily proceed to the point where "who is responsible" becomes less important than "reducing vehicular deaths". Since big money is driving all of this, the conversation is still about financial liability, the conversation needs to move past that. In 5-10 years time, we should be able to judge just based on statistics:
For the USA:
37,000 vehicle deaths / year
2.35 million injuries / year
1,600 child deaths / year
8,000 killed in crashes involving drivers ages 16-20
$230.6 billion per year in crash associated costs
If any company can show that these statistics can be reduced (halved/thirded/decimated) in any meaningful way with their autonomous tech, that's when we'll finally reach a new era in transportation. How can anyone advocate for human-driven cars once the implications become clear? Let's say that the Uber autonomous car reduces vehicular injuries and deaths by only 5%, well shouldn't that be enough evidence to say, put that on our roads? I think that the current level of tech is already at a point where it will save lives on average more than a human driver, what more do you need from a regulatory point of view?
- londons_explore 8y agoThe numbers can be dramatically reduced by better safety standards for roads, vehicles, and better training (stricter driving tests, better control of distracted and drunken driving). Take the UK for example. It has many of these safety improvements, and gets one quarter of the risk of dying in a car accident (one half the risk per mile driven, since Americans drive further). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-r...
- perl4ever 8y ago"We as a society just need to focus on getting out of this local minima that we are stuck in. It is clear to any of us here on HN that autonomous cars will result in fewer deaths, I have no doubts about that whatsoever, humans are statistically terrible drivers." Getting out of a "local minimum" by definition requires things to get worse before they get better - that's what makes it a local minimum. So it requires faith, which is belief in the absence of clear evidence. Faith is always uncertain, which is why people get strident and appeal to emotion when it is challenged.
- erobbins 8y ago> It is clear to any of us here on HN that autonomous cars will result in fewer deaths, I have no doubts about that whatsoever, humans are statistically terrible drivers. It's anything but clear
- JoeAltmaier 8y agoHaven't the statistical already show this? Millions of miles of testing?
- erobbins 8y agoNot really. We have a little bit of data on how mostly automated cars handle driving on controlled access roads in good conditions, and tons of data on what humans end up doing on all types of roads in all types of conditions.