4 ms·

Defaulting on the Federal debt to China could have a wee bit of a repercussion.

anamax 16y ago
> Defaulting on the Federal debt to China could have a wee bit of a repercussion. They'd seize every US or American-owned asset that they could get their hands on and stop sending us stuff on credit. The former is much smaller than the debt that they hold (so we could compensate private holders and still end up ahead) and the latter is arguably a good thing.
- anigbrowl 16y ago
  And then they would just forget about it and let bygones be bygones, I suppose.
  - anamax 16y ago
    > And then they would just forget about it and let bygones be bygones, I suppose. Not at all. They'd remember and never loan us money again. Given our spending habits, that would be a good thing. Or maybe they would loan money in the future if they decided that was in their best interests. Remember, other countries have defaulted and gotten loans later, some more than once. Why would this be any different?
    - anigbrowl 16y ago
      In a nutshell, because the Chinese take that sort of thing personally. I do not think you are really serious, if you consider this course of action credible in in either fiscal or strategic terms.
      - anamax 16y ago
        I am serious. You're assuming that the Chinese will be benevolent if we don't default and aggressively malevolent if we do. That's naive. If they're willing to be aggressively malevolent, they'll be so without an excuse so it's absurd to worry about excuses. If they're unwilling, their worst is actually good for us - it will force us to live within our means. BTW - A US-class blue water navy is really hard to build. So, the likely malevolence is nuclear.
- po 16y ago
  > They'd seize every US or American-owned asset that they could get their hands on That might include coming over to get it by force.
  - anamax 16y ago
    > That might include coming over to get it by force. How? They don't have a blue water Navy.
    - mkramlich 16y ago
      They're building one.

> Defaulting on the Federal debt to China could have a wee bit of a repercussion. They'd seize every US or American-owned asset that they could get their hands on and stop sending us stuff on credit. The former is much smaller than the debt that they hold (so we could compensate private holders and still end up ahead) and the latter is arguably a good thing.

anigbrowl 16y ago
And then they would just forget about it and let bygones be bygones, I suppose.
- anamax 16y ago
  > And then they would just forget about it and let bygones be bygones, I suppose. Not at all. They'd remember and never loan us money again. Given our spending habits, that would be a good thing. Or maybe they would loan money in the future if they decided that was in their best interests. Remember, other countries have defaulted and gotten loans later, some more than once. Why would this be any different?
  - anigbrowl 16y ago
    In a nutshell, because the Chinese take that sort of thing personally. I do not think you are really serious, if you consider this course of action credible in in either fiscal or strategic terms.
    - anamax 16y ago
      I am serious. You're assuming that the Chinese will be benevolent if we don't default and aggressively malevolent if we do. That's naive. If they're willing to be aggressively malevolent, they'll be so without an excuse so it's absurd to worry about excuses. If they're unwilling, their worst is actually good for us - it will force us to live within our means. BTW - A US-class blue water navy is really hard to build. So, the likely malevolence is nuclear.
po 16y ago
> They'd seize every US or American-owned asset that they could get their hands on That might include coming over to get it by force.
- anamax 16y ago
  > That might include coming over to get it by force. How? They don't have a blue water Navy.
  - mkramlich 16y ago
    They're building one.