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>Everyone's reaction to this seems to be "He is crazy / paranoid". He also investigated "sabotage" when a SpaceX rocket exploded in 2016. >or a competing manu

>Everyone's reaction to this seems to be "He is crazy / paranoid". He also investigated "sabotage" when a SpaceX rocket exploded in 2016. >or a competing manufacturer, or an oil / gas company finally picking things up after a terrible oil price collapse This is borderline ridiculous. Are you really convinced that Tesla is on the verge of upending the entire energy world? That any minute now they are going to put Big Oil out of business? Companies like Exxon and BP are doing far more R&D into renewables than Tesla is. They aren't even thinking about Tesla. Other auto manufacturers are spending more on R&D and working hard to get cars out. They are behind, but they are succeeding. Outside of the coastal elites or tech junkies, Tesla is practically unknown and is a rounding error to competitors. The data shows they aren't "growing like gangbusters". Model S/X are stagnating, SolarCity is installing far less per quarter (and essentially laid everyone off recently). Read the financials. There are tons of competitors in both renewables and cars, but they all decided to pick on Tesla, did they? >but when you're working at this level as CEO I feel like you have to at least consider the possibility. So you say it in an email and leak it to the press before any investigation is done? I called this a long time ago, on these forums: if/when Tesla blows up, everyone is going to point to some conspiracy, rather than lack of execution. Silicon Valley has completely lost touch with reality.

magnetic 8y ago
> Outside of the coastal elites or tech junkies, Tesla is practically unknown and is a rounding error to competitors. Tesla outsells BMW, Audi and Mercedes' flagships in their home market - https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-outsells-bmw-audi-mercedes-flagships/ https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-outsells-bmw-audi-m... Tesla Model 3 Outsells BMW, Mercedes Equivalents in California - The Model 3 is the best selling mid-size premium sedan sold in California in the first quarter. - https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/tesla-outsold-bmw-mercedes-in-california-in-the-first-quarter-14599367 https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/tesla-outsold-bmw... It seems it would be healthy for competitors to take note of this "rounding error"...
- dsabanin 8y ago
  And, of course, BMW and Mercedes are simply incapable of competing with Tesla on quality engineering and streamlined manufacturing processes, so the only option they have left is sabotage. It is very hard to connect electric motors to laptop battery packs and to replace the dashboard with an android tablet.
  - cepth 8y ago
    Wouldn’t you say this is a little glib? Nissan’s LEAF famously struggled with battery degradation over time. You can shade Tesla’s execution/financial performance/etc., but the battery technology improvements they’ve made are real. They’re going to be the first battery manufacturer to deliver costs of lower than $100/kWh, not to mention effectively doubling global production of lithium ion batteries. A BMW is my most driven car, and I’ve test driven the i3, but it’s quite glib to suggest that BMW and Mercedes could come out with an electric car at any point in time. Tesla’s batteries have degradation performance like this: https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-batteries-last-longer/ https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-batteries-last-long.... BMW only offers a warranty on the i3 battery to 80% capacity after 100k miles. One last thing: clean infotainment software is not a given. BMW iDrive was terrible until 2016. The Mercedes interface is still ugly. Neither maker has touchscreens standard.
    - dsabanin 8y ago
      I agree that was glib, but some of the statements made by Tesla fans (speaking as a former somewhat Tesla fan myself) are just asking for it. — I don't want to dismiss Tesla, they did achieve a lot. However, it would be a mistake to think that there's some technological breakthrough that they possess that makes them unbeatable or even the most likely winner in the upcoming electric car competition. Among the reasons why, I would say there are many — engineering culture (and part of that is quality control and standards), haphazard management, brain leak (because of the competition poaching employees, unclear financials, and the management), financials (not making a profit and burning through money like crazy), dismissive approach to the competition and other company's engineering efforts and solutions (stupid robots everywhere, autopilot with the freaking webcams, when everyone said it's a bad idea). I think the reason why we see that BMW, Mercedes, Audi and others are not building the electric cars with the same favorable characteristics as Tesla, and without similar fanfare, is because they have a bottom line that they'd like to stay in the black. They have to know that electric car market is a very small niche right now, and they are letting Tesla to be the one who makes customers intrigued and creates some pressure for bringing up at least a little bit of infrastructure for the charging. Imagine the daily commute in the big city, how many cars are driving through the main city artery? How many cars are pumping gas in any given 30 minutes? How many supercharger stations are needed to accommodate for this? I think you can create a societal collapse right now if 5% of the drives in US would switch to electric cars. People wouldn't find a place to charge their car, electric grid would become unstable and overloaded from all these people who hooked up Tesla to their 200 amp residential fuse box, while having dishwasher, washing maching, drier, TVs, computers and a ton of lights running. For fun, you can also imagine superchargers with enormous lines, with people reserving spots and selling them to those who are in a rush. I'm sure that the blunt of BMW's and alikes engineering resources are spent right now in different areas, because they just can't afford building this perfect electric car which only 1% of their customers would want to buy. That's how you get bankrupt. Remember Apple Newton?

magnetic 8y ago

> Outside of the coastal elites or tech junkies, Tesla is practically unknown and is a rounding error to competitors. Tesla outsells BMW, Audi and Mercedes' flagships in their home market - https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-outsells-bmw-audi-mercedes-flagships/ https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/tesla-outsells-bmw-audi-m... Tesla Model 3 Outsells BMW, Mercedes Equivalents in California - The Model 3 is the best selling mid-size premium sedan sold in California in the first quarter. - https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/tesla-outsold-bmw-mercedes-in-california-in-the-first-quarter-14599367 https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/tesla-outsold-bmw... It seems it would be healthy for competitors to take note of this "rounding error"...

dsabanin 8y ago
And, of course, BMW and Mercedes are simply incapable of competing with Tesla on quality engineering and streamlined manufacturing processes, so the only option they have left is sabotage. It is very hard to connect electric motors to laptop battery packs and to replace the dashboard with an android tablet.
- cepth 8y ago
  Wouldn’t you say this is a little glib? Nissan’s LEAF famously struggled with battery degradation over time. You can shade Tesla’s execution/financial performance/etc., but the battery technology improvements they’ve made are real. They’re going to be the first battery manufacturer to deliver costs of lower than $100/kWh, not to mention effectively doubling global production of lithium ion batteries. A BMW is my most driven car, and I’ve test driven the i3, but it’s quite glib to suggest that BMW and Mercedes could come out with an electric car at any point in time. Tesla’s batteries have degradation performance like this: https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-batteries-last-longer/ https://www.digitaltrends.com/cars/tesla-batteries-last-long.... BMW only offers a warranty on the i3 battery to 80% capacity after 100k miles. One last thing: clean infotainment software is not a given. BMW iDrive was terrible until 2016. The Mercedes interface is still ugly. Neither maker has touchscreens standard.
  - dsabanin 8y ago
    I agree that was glib, but some of the statements made by Tesla fans (speaking as a former somewhat Tesla fan myself) are just asking for it. — I don't want to dismiss Tesla, they did achieve a lot. However, it would be a mistake to think that there's some technological breakthrough that they possess that makes them unbeatable or even the most likely winner in the upcoming electric car competition. Among the reasons why, I would say there are many — engineering culture (and part of that is quality control and standards), haphazard management, brain leak (because of the competition poaching employees, unclear financials, and the management), financials (not making a profit and burning through money like crazy), dismissive approach to the competition and other company's engineering efforts and solutions (stupid robots everywhere, autopilot with the freaking webcams, when everyone said it's a bad idea). I think the reason why we see that BMW, Mercedes, Audi and others are not building the electric cars with the same favorable characteristics as Tesla, and without similar fanfare, is because they have a bottom line that they'd like to stay in the black. They have to know that electric car market is a very small niche right now, and they are letting Tesla to be the one who makes customers intrigued and creates some pressure for bringing up at least a little bit of infrastructure for the charging. Imagine the daily commute in the big city, how many cars are driving through the main city artery? How many cars are pumping gas in any given 30 minutes? How many supercharger stations are needed to accommodate for this? I think you can create a societal collapse right now if 5% of the drives in US would switch to electric cars. People wouldn't find a place to charge their car, electric grid would become unstable and overloaded from all these people who hooked up Tesla to their 200 amp residential fuse box, while having dishwasher, washing maching, drier, TVs, computers and a ton of lights running. For fun, you can also imagine superchargers with enormous lines, with people reserving spots and selling them to those who are in a rush. I'm sure that the blunt of BMW's and alikes engineering resources are spent right now in different areas, because they just can't afford building this perfect electric car which only 1% of their customers would want to buy. That's how you get bankrupt. Remember Apple Newton?