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The philosophy behind HODL is that you need to hold for 5-10 years plus in order for the strategy to work. The 1-year timespan in the graphs on the site are wa
by fanzhang 8y ago
The philosophy behind HODL is that you need to hold for 5-10 years plus in order for the strategy to work. The 1-year timespan in the graphs on the site are way too short.
If you want to cherry pick a point to "disprove" HODL, just look at the fact that in November 2013 Bitcoin traded at an eye-watering $950+, and then for 2.5 years beat a steady retreat to $400.
At this point, bitcoin can taper down to $3K in value till 2020 and we would not have seen anything new in terms of relative price movement over a fix timespan.
For those who have watched bitcoin for a while, 2018 is just 2014 all over again, except this time a lot more people are paying attention.
- hangonhn 8y agoWhat's the reasoning behind the philosophy?
- nostrademons 8y agoBitcoin's a deflating currency; there's a fixed number that will ever be mined, and a number are lost to forgotten private keys etc, and so the supply will only ever go downwards. Meanwhile, if its boosters can actually keep it in the news, build things with it, and use it as a currency, demand for it in the long run will continue going up. This is the other unspoken assumption of HODLing, unspoken because most people don't want it explicitly known that they're hyping & propagandizing, but pretty apparent in their actions. This is also not true in the short run; hype cycles like what we saw in Dec 2017 are impossible to sustain forever, which is why the price today is significantly lower than it was then, which is why HODLing only works on long (5-10 year) timespans rather than short ones. Reduced supply + increased demand = higher price.
- deleted 8y ago[deleted]