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Tesla doesn't publish current mileage or crash incident reports under autopilot; given their willingness to lie about Wei Huang's conduct before his crash I'd b

by dbt00 8y ago

Tesla doesn't publish current mileage or crash incident reports under autopilot; given their willingness to lie about Wei Huang's conduct before his crash I'd be surprised if their statistics actually held up as beneficial. The numbers I recall seeing were specific to Uber, who were attempting to operate a fully autonomous vehicle (Tesla doesn't claim to, except when Elon does press). In any event, if you're going to compare injury and crash rates, you should compare Tesla to other luxury cars with FCW+AEB. Those systems alone create 40% fewer crashes in at least one analysis[1] but don't come with the risk issues of automated lane changes and steering control that create driver inattention. That improvement is over and above passive safety improvements in luxury cars. 1. https://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/IIHS-CicchinoEffectivenessOfCWS-Jan2016.pdf https://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/I...

slg 8y ago
So just so we are clear, you stated as a fact that "software has a higher crash and fatality rate" while not having any evidence that what you said is true?
- gamblor956 8y ago
  His evidence is the 4 driver fatalities resulting from Tesla's Autopilot, which is infinitely more than the 0 driver fatalities of any other self-driving system. Including pedestrian, cyclist, and other-vehicle fatalities, Tesla's fatality statistics are so bad that they exceed the combined total of every other self-driving system back to their respective launch dates.
  - slg 8y ago
    Where did that 4th fatality come from? I have only ever seen reports of 3. Either way, you can't credibly use aggregate totals without at least mentioning the underlying rate statistics. That would be like me saying that over a 100 people die every day from manual driving but only 3 people have ever been killed by self driving Teslas and therefore Teslas are safer. Statistics doesn't work like that. Tesla's have more fatalities than any other semi-autonomous car because they have orders of magnitude more miles driven. It is far to early to tell whether they are either safer or more dangerous.

by dbt00 8y ago

slg 8y ago

So just so we are clear, you stated as a fact that "software has a higher crash and fatality rate" while not having any evidence that what you said is true?

gamblor956 8y ago
His evidence is the 4 driver fatalities resulting from Tesla's Autopilot, which is infinitely more than the 0 driver fatalities of any other self-driving system. Including pedestrian, cyclist, and other-vehicle fatalities, Tesla's fatality statistics are so bad that they exceed the combined total of every other self-driving system back to their respective launch dates.
- slg 8y ago
  Where did that 4th fatality come from? I have only ever seen reports of 3. Either way, you can't credibly use aggregate totals without at least mentioning the underlying rate statistics. That would be like me saying that over a 100 people die every day from manual driving but only 3 people have ever been killed by self driving Teslas and therefore Teslas are safer. Statistics doesn't work like that. Tesla's have more fatalities than any other semi-autonomous car because they have orders of magnitude more miles driven. It is far to early to tell whether they are either safer or more dangerous.