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You're comparing what humans do to what software could possibly do, which is a category error. Software doesn't recognize color coded warning signs. Software

by dbt00 8y ago

You're comparing what humans do to what software could possibly do, which is a category error. Software doesn't recognize color coded warning signs. Software doesn't trust it's stationary object recognition at high speeds. Software doesn't distinguish between high speeds on limited access highways and high speeds on pedestrian accessible roads. Software has a higher crash and fatality rate per mile driven than humans, right now, despite driving in statistically safer cars. Yes there are good reasons to be hopeful software can do better at those things eventually, but it's obvious now that it's not ready (or Tesla wouldn't have to trash-talk a dead man for not maintaining high enough torque on the steering wheel to inform the car he was steering, because he wouldn't be dead and they wouldn't have to require passive hands on the wheel).

slg 8y ago
>Software has a higher crash and fatality rate per mile driven than humans, right now, despite driving in statistically safer cars. Do you have a source for that claim because everything I have seen has been inconclusive so far?
- ben_w 8y ago
  From https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_autonomous_car_fatalities https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_autonomous_car_fatal... 3rd Tesla autopilot fatality happened at 210,000,000 km, giving a fatality rate of 9.2—14.3 per billion km of autopilot depending on if you take the average just before or just after the third death. From https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic... USA has an average of 7.1 fatalities per billion vehicle-km. I’m assuming most of the Tesla kilometres were in the USA. I don’t know if that is a reasonable assumption.
  - slg 8y ago
    >3rd Tesla autopilot fatality happened at 210,000,000 km That 210 million km (130 million miles) number is just flat out wrong for that time period. That number originally comes from Tesla's public statements after the first fatality in the US. That was close to 2 years before that 3rd fatality happened. Tesla should be well over 1.5 billion km by now which would bring the fatality rate to down below 2 per billion km. [1] - https://www.tesla.com/blog/tragic-loss https://www.tesla.com/blog/tragic-loss
    - dbt00 8y ago
      Tesla doesn't publish current mileage or crash incident reports under autopilot; given their willingness to lie about Wei Huang's conduct before his crash I'd be surprised if their statistics actually held up as beneficial. The numbers I recall seeing were specific to Uber, who were attempting to operate a fully autonomous vehicle (Tesla doesn't claim to, except when Elon does press). In any event, if you're going to compare injury and crash rates, you should compare Tesla to other luxury cars with FCW+AEB. Those systems alone create 40% fewer crashes in at least one analysis[1] but don't come with the risk issues of automated lane changes and steering control that create driver inattention. That improvement is over and above passive safety improvements in luxury cars. 1. https://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/IIHS-CicchinoEffectivenessOfCWS-Jan2016.pdf https://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/I...
      - slg 8y ago
        So just so we are clear, you stated as a fact that "software has a higher crash and fatality rate" while not having any evidence that what you said is true?
        gamblor956 8y ago
        His evidence is the 4 driver fatalities resulting from Tesla's Autopilot, which is infinitely more than the 0 driver fatalities of any other self-driving system. Including pedestrian, cyclist, and other-vehicle fatalities, Tesla's fatality statistics are so bad that they exceed the combined total of every other self-driving system back to their respective launch dates.
        slg 8y ago
        Where did that 4th fatality come from? I have only ever seen reports of 3. Either way, you can't credibly use aggregate totals without at least mentioning the underlying rate statistics. That would be like me saying that over a 100 people die every day from manual driving but only 3 people have ever been killed by self driving Teslas and therefore Teslas are safer. Statistics doesn't work like that. Tesla's have more fatalities than any other semi-autonomous car because they have orders of magnitude more miles driven. It is far to early to tell whether they are either safer or more dangerous.
  - FireBeyond 8y ago
    Autopilot is also (usually) only turned on in situations where it is worthwhile, works well, has a benefit. General human driving rarely has that luxury short of "do not drive at all". Comparing the "best/better world" scenarios of where AP is active, versus all miles driven is an apples and oranges comparison.

by dbt00 8y ago

slg 8y ago

>Software has a higher crash and fatality rate per mile driven than humans, right now, despite driving in statistically safer cars. Do you have a source for that claim because everything I have seen has been inconclusive so far?

ben_w 8y ago
From https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_autonomous_car_fatalities https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_autonomous_car_fatal... 3rd Tesla autopilot fatality happened at 210,000,000 km, giving a fatality rate of 9.2—14.3 per billion km of autopilot depending on if you take the average just before or just after the third death. From https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic-related_death_rate https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_traffic... USA has an average of 7.1 fatalities per billion vehicle-km. I’m assuming most of the Tesla kilometres were in the USA. I don’t know if that is a reasonable assumption.
- slg 8y ago
  >3rd Tesla autopilot fatality happened at 210,000,000 km That 210 million km (130 million miles) number is just flat out wrong for that time period. That number originally comes from Tesla's public statements after the first fatality in the US. That was close to 2 years before that 3rd fatality happened. Tesla should be well over 1.5 billion km by now which would bring the fatality rate to down below 2 per billion km. [1] - https://www.tesla.com/blog/tragic-loss https://www.tesla.com/blog/tragic-loss
  - dbt00 8y ago
    Tesla doesn't publish current mileage or crash incident reports under autopilot; given their willingness to lie about Wei Huang's conduct before his crash I'd be surprised if their statistics actually held up as beneficial. The numbers I recall seeing were specific to Uber, who were attempting to operate a fully autonomous vehicle (Tesla doesn't claim to, except when Elon does press). In any event, if you're going to compare injury and crash rates, you should compare Tesla to other luxury cars with FCW+AEB. Those systems alone create 40% fewer crashes in at least one analysis[1] but don't come with the risk issues of automated lane changes and steering control that create driver inattention. That improvement is over and above passive safety improvements in luxury cars. 1. https://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/IIHS-CicchinoEffectivenessOfCWS-Jan2016.pdf https://orfe.princeton.edu/~alaink/SmartDrivingCars/Papers/I...
    - slg 8y ago
      So just so we are clear, you stated as a fact that "software has a higher crash and fatality rate" while not having any evidence that what you said is true?
      - gamblor956 8y ago
        His evidence is the 4 driver fatalities resulting from Tesla's Autopilot, which is infinitely more than the 0 driver fatalities of any other self-driving system. Including pedestrian, cyclist, and other-vehicle fatalities, Tesla's fatality statistics are so bad that they exceed the combined total of every other self-driving system back to their respective launch dates.
        slg 8y ago
        Where did that 4th fatality come from? I have only ever seen reports of 3. Either way, you can't credibly use aggregate totals without at least mentioning the underlying rate statistics. That would be like me saying that over a 100 people die every day from manual driving but only 3 people have ever been killed by self driving Teslas and therefore Teslas are safer. Statistics doesn't work like that. Tesla's have more fatalities than any other semi-autonomous car because they have orders of magnitude more miles driven. It is far to early to tell whether they are either safer or more dangerous.
- FireBeyond 8y ago
  Autopilot is also (usually) only turned on in situations where it is worthwhile, works well, has a benefit. General human driving rarely has that luxury short of "do not drive at all". Comparing the "best/better world" scenarios of where AP is active, versus all miles driven is an apples and oranges comparison.