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>Representing 260,000 UPS drivers, sorters and other workers, the union wants UPS to hire more full-time workers to help handle the surge in packages. It has op

by kevan 8y ago

>Representing 260,000 UPS drivers, sorters and other workers, the union wants UPS to hire more full-time workers to help handle the surge in packages. It has opposed technology such as autonomous vehicles and drones and is wary of projects that do work with fewer employees. This isn't tenable for the company. The union might be able to stall automation in UPS for a few years, but it'll end with UPS being unable to compete with its competitors. At that point UPS will have a lot more leverage in union negotiations because the alternative will be bankruptcy and everyone losing their jobs. Hopefully union leadership adopts a longer-term view before then.

gonzo41 8y ago
That type of automation will probably knock out 1 in 5 jobs, or more. The workforce will change. And those who don't move up the value chain (become robot technicians and programmers) will be pushed out. I totally sympathize with the union and understand it's motivations. When things like healthcare are linked to having a job in America, replacing people with machines is rough.
- Spooky23 8y ago
  The automation will impact the ground facility guys, who are low seniority chum whom a union will typically sacrifice. My guess is that they overutilize seasonal/temp people and understaff later in the year from the unions pov.
- icelancer 8y ago
  Even if it does eliminate 20% of jobs (that number is way too high), opposing it in the short-run won't solve anything permanently, as the GP said. Then when UPS is losing money and facing layoffs, the leverage will be massive. The union needs to adopt a long-term strategy or risk getting destroyed 5-10 years down the road.
  - toomuchtodo 8y ago
    Amazon, with all of its technological and operations might, is pathetically terrible at their own last mile delivery operations (I'm going to discount them hauling trailers from distribution centers to USPS sort facilities; anyone can do that). To displace UPS and Fedex, you would require immense amounts of capital for your delivery network, and staff properly compensated and treated well for quality work (ie a union or benefits of sufficient quality, a union isn't required). Arm chair "logistics experts" should go sling packages for a few weeks to see what it takes to compete with real operations before declaring existing operations dead if they don't "disrupt themselves". UPS, Fedex, and USPS aren't going anywhere.
    - jjeaff 8y ago
      While I agree that delivery logistics are not easy, I don’t think it is something that will take massive amounts of capital. Simply increasing the compensation for delivery people high enough to get competent full timers would likely solve the problem. And due to the union wages of ups, there is a lot of room to raise wages for drivers.
    - toast0 8y ago
      The trick with the capital requirements is Amazon is totally willing to contract out to small regional conpanies; so you can have big plans, but start small and grow, if it works out. There's room outside of Amazon delivery too.
      - toomuchtodo 8y ago
        Name a regional last mile delivery firm with the quality of UPS, FedEx, or USPS.
        jcims 8y ago
        FedEx full timers. Their subcontractors are terrible.
        toomuchtodo 8y ago
  - citrablue 8y ago
    You are saying that you don't think UPS' automation efforts will reduce the effective workforce by 20% in the next decade? I would strongly disagree with your certainty, and believe if their per-package efforts don't decline by > 20%, they will consider their efforts a failure. Also, it is possible the union sees no end-game in sight and is just trying to preserve jobs as long as possible. (The robots won't have a union, and if they did, this union would be unlikely to be a part of forming it.) I think I agree that the UPS union's decision is possibly a poor one, but come on -- it's easy to see why they made it. Making self-interested, short-sighted decisions is literally what humans are best at. (Plus, it's not like we can pretend to predict the future and better than they can!)
xienze 8y ago
> At that point UPS will have a lot more leverage in union negotiations because the alternative will be bankruptcy and everyone losing their jobs. Hopefully union leadership adopts a longer-term view before then. Unfortunately that's not usually how it works out. See for example, Hostess a couple years back. The union thought management was bluffing about their imminent bankruptcy, turns out they weren't.
russdpale 8y ago
It is tenable. We will be fine I think. The answer is to use the AI automation and humans in a symbiotic relationship where in the AI or the human would not be as effective without the other. Its easy to justify the workforce on the books if they are producing for example, 10x more than what they do now and despite the myth of unions, we actually have a ton of good employees who would jump at the chance to do some of this stuff. The bottom line is that there are ways to make this work and be vastly profitable, but I think ultimately, the question is whether our management and union leaders will work to do that.
- dagss 8y ago
  If there was a 10x larger market for shipping then UPS and its competitors would have already taken it. Some things actually are zero sum games. And we are a lot closer to that now than 50 years ago when there was so much more room for growth.
  - russdpale 8y ago
    Yeh I see what you are saying, you could very well be right.
dmead 8y ago
Or they could do the socially correct thing and not automate. Or, all that automation is just vaporware outside of marketing demos and the unions will be fine.
- imglorp 8y ago
  Have you ever seen a modern factory?
  - dmead 8y ago
    yes in fact, but we're not talking about a factory.
- whb07 8y ago
  How are you writing this on the web?
  - dmead 8y ago
    I wasn't aware me posting on a webzone was actually displacing thousands of manual laborers.
    - whb07 8y ago
      What do you mean? Have you seen switchboard operators? Surely internet packets displaced the phone companies! What about most things that you own today? Surely the metals you come across the very electronic you’re typing away on didn’t come from a blacksmith? I’m sure I could go ad nauseum but I hope you get my point. I’d believe you if you lived somewhere in the artic circle in a remote corner of that desert. But here you are on HN of all places! Edit: typo
      - dmead 8y ago
        those jobs are already gone. the fact they were eliminated decades ago doesn't support the idea of accelerating joblessness through automation.
JumpCrisscross 8y ago
> At that point UPS will have a lot more leverage in union negotiations because the alternative will be bankruptcy and everyone losing their jobs The history of companies with incalcitrant unions isn’t the unions getting crushed at the last minute. It’s everyone losing jobs because the company goes bust.
- jjeaff 8y ago
  Not to mention that even if they did suddenly decide to cooperat, it will be far too late.

by kevan 8y ago

gonzo41 8y ago

That type of automation will probably knock out 1 in 5 jobs, or more. The workforce will change. And those who don't move up the value chain (become robot technicians and programmers) will be pushed out. I totally sympathize with the union and understand it's motivations. When things like healthcare are linked to having a job in America, replacing people with machines is rough.

Spooky23 8y ago
The automation will impact the ground facility guys, who are low seniority chum whom a union will typically sacrifice. My guess is that they overutilize seasonal/temp people and understaff later in the year from the unions pov.
icelancer 8y ago
Even if it does eliminate 20% of jobs (that number is way too high), opposing it in the short-run won't solve anything permanently, as the GP said. Then when UPS is losing money and facing layoffs, the leverage will be massive. The union needs to adopt a long-term strategy or risk getting destroyed 5-10 years down the road.
- toomuchtodo 8y ago
  Amazon, with all of its technological and operations might, is pathetically terrible at their own last mile delivery operations (I'm going to discount them hauling trailers from distribution centers to USPS sort facilities; anyone can do that). To displace UPS and Fedex, you would require immense amounts of capital for your delivery network, and staff properly compensated and treated well for quality work (ie a union or benefits of sufficient quality, a union isn't required). Arm chair "logistics experts" should go sling packages for a few weeks to see what it takes to compete with real operations before declaring existing operations dead if they don't "disrupt themselves". UPS, Fedex, and USPS aren't going anywhere.
  - jjeaff 8y ago
    While I agree that delivery logistics are not easy, I don’t think it is something that will take massive amounts of capital. Simply increasing the compensation for delivery people high enough to get competent full timers would likely solve the problem. And due to the union wages of ups, there is a lot of room to raise wages for drivers.
  - toast0 8y ago
    The trick with the capital requirements is Amazon is totally willing to contract out to small regional conpanies; so you can have big plans, but start small and grow, if it works out. There's room outside of Amazon delivery too.
    - toomuchtodo 8y ago
      Name a regional last mile delivery firm with the quality of UPS, FedEx, or USPS.
      - jcims 8y ago
        FedEx full timers. Their subcontractors are terrible.
        toomuchtodo 8y ago
- citrablue 8y ago
  You are saying that you don't think UPS' automation efforts will reduce the effective workforce by 20% in the next decade? I would strongly disagree with your certainty, and believe if their per-package efforts don't decline by > 20%, they will consider their efforts a failure. Also, it is possible the union sees no end-game in sight and is just trying to preserve jobs as long as possible. (The robots won't have a union, and if they did, this union would be unlikely to be a part of forming it.) I think I agree that the UPS union's decision is possibly a poor one, but come on -- it's easy to see why they made it. Making self-interested, short-sighted decisions is literally what humans are best at. (Plus, it's not like we can pretend to predict the future and better than they can!)

xienze 8y ago

> At that point UPS will have a lot more leverage in union negotiations because the alternative will be bankruptcy and everyone losing their jobs. Hopefully union leadership adopts a longer-term view before then. Unfortunately that's not usually how it works out. See for example, Hostess a couple years back. The union thought management was bluffing about their imminent bankruptcy, turns out they weren't.

russdpale 8y ago

It is tenable. We will be fine I think. The answer is to use the AI automation and humans in a symbiotic relationship where in the AI or the human would not be as effective without the other. Its easy to justify the workforce on the books if they are producing for example, 10x more than what they do now and despite the myth of unions, we actually have a ton of good employees who would jump at the chance to do some of this stuff. The bottom line is that there are ways to make this work and be vastly profitable, but I think ultimately, the question is whether our management and union leaders will work to do that.

dagss 8y ago
If there was a 10x larger market for shipping then UPS and its competitors would have already taken it. Some things actually are zero sum games. And we are a lot closer to that now than 50 years ago when there was so much more room for growth.
- russdpale 8y ago
  Yeh I see what you are saying, you could very well be right.

dmead 8y ago

Or they could do the socially correct thing and not automate. Or, all that automation is just vaporware outside of marketing demos and the unions will be fine.

imglorp 8y ago
Have you ever seen a modern factory?
- dmead 8y ago
  yes in fact, but we're not talking about a factory.
whb07 8y ago
How are you writing this on the web?
- dmead 8y ago
  I wasn't aware me posting on a webzone was actually displacing thousands of manual laborers.
  - whb07 8y ago
    What do you mean? Have you seen switchboard operators? Surely internet packets displaced the phone companies! What about most things that you own today? Surely the metals you come across the very electronic you’re typing away on didn’t come from a blacksmith? I’m sure I could go ad nauseum but I hope you get my point. I’d believe you if you lived somewhere in the artic circle in a remote corner of that desert. But here you are on HN of all places! Edit: typo
    - dmead 8y ago
      those jobs are already gone. the fact they were eliminated decades ago doesn't support the idea of accelerating joblessness through automation.

JumpCrisscross 8y ago

> At that point UPS will have a lot more leverage in union negotiations because the alternative will be bankruptcy and everyone losing their jobs The history of companies with incalcitrant unions isn’t the unions getting crushed at the last minute. It’s everyone losing jobs because the company goes bust.

jjeaff 8y ago
Not to mention that even if they did suddenly decide to cooperat, it will be far too late.