4 ms·

It’s crazy that a startup bound by logistics is growing this fast.

by adamnemecek 8y ago

deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
seba_dos1 8y ago
Hindsight will be painful.
drewmate 8y ago
I don't see how a scooter rental like this can be anything but a race to the bottom. I have used competitors' services (though never Bird) and they work just fine. There's no network effect with a fleet of drivers like Uber/Lyft. I'll happily use the app of whichever scooter is cheap and right in front of me.
- beamatronic 8y ago
  What if you don’t already have their app. Then there is friction. I am about 20 feet away from a Bird scooter but under the present circumstances I’m not interested in creating an account, etc.
  - drewmate 8y ago
    I'm guessing you're not really in the target market of scooter users then. Getting the app and creating the account (for any of these companies) is very straightforward. You should give it a try, if for no reason then to satisfy your curiosity for a couple bucks.
  - z6 8y ago
    Well, if (when?) uber/lyft enter the market, you probably already have their apps, so this is a non-issue. For others, I think if you have competent product people, you'd limit registration to a phone number and offer apple/android pay. With iOS 12, for example, it would be so seamless since it can auto-fill confirmation codes. So all you'd have to do is put in your phone number and you're logged into a new account.
    - ericpauley 8y ago
      Better yet just make the scooters tap to pay on device.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- partiallypro 8y ago
  Not only is there no network effect, but capital cost and cost of market entry is very low. Unless Bird's ultimate goal is to block competitors by lobbying cities or licensing to cities like some bike sharing companies do limiting competition, which is entirely possible.
  - drewmate 8y ago
    In many ways, it seems very similar to the taxi industry, which only seems to be as profitable as it is (in addition to safe and reliable) thanks to regulation and a sanctioned geographic monopoly. Somehow I doubt such a monopoly will be granted to a single corporation like Bird, though perhaps there is another path to viability.
sonnyblarney 8y ago
"It’s crazy that a startup bound by logistics is growing this fast." I think basically they launched in a city and were able to demonstrate the unit metrics on some level - and os use the 'Uber theory' they can justify to investors multiplying that across 100's of cities as fast as they can. Taking on a lot of cash might make sense as market dominance might create a systematic advantage. Strong note: this sharing stuff is massive in China, in a way, it's something 'invented there' and investors are on to that. So just like the US built out some things that Chinese innovators were able to adapt/copy and scale quickly due to the already validated model ... this has a little bit of the inverse going for it. And surpluses are generally a lot higher in North America for everything. So if the unit economics work, then there's some rationality about the big raise. I do believe however it may not pan out due to major risks: > Unit economics over the long haul are not what they want > The recharging model doesn't really take hold > People outside of LA don't really 'get' the scooter thing and cities shut them down due to various regulations and risks > Not a powerful competitive advantage. Uber will exist I believe in one way or another in 10 years, it's just a matter of how profitable they will be, how big investors win/lose. Bird ... it's risky for sure, but risk is part of VC.

It’s crazy that a startup bound by logistics is growing this fast.

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

seba_dos1 8y ago

Hindsight will be painful.

drewmate 8y ago

I don't see how a scooter rental like this can be anything but a race to the bottom. I have used competitors' services (though never Bird) and they work just fine. There's no network effect with a fleet of drivers like Uber/Lyft. I'll happily use the app of whichever scooter is cheap and right in front of me.

beamatronic 8y ago
What if you don’t already have their app. Then there is friction. I am about 20 feet away from a Bird scooter but under the present circumstances I’m not interested in creating an account, etc.
- drewmate 8y ago
  I'm guessing you're not really in the target market of scooter users then. Getting the app and creating the account (for any of these companies) is very straightforward. You should give it a try, if for no reason then to satisfy your curiosity for a couple bucks.
- z6 8y ago
  Well, if (when?) uber/lyft enter the market, you probably already have their apps, so this is a non-issue. For others, I think if you have competent product people, you'd limit registration to a phone number and offer apple/android pay. With iOS 12, for example, it would be so seamless since it can auto-fill confirmation codes. So all you'd have to do is put in your phone number and you're logged into a new account.
  - ericpauley 8y ago
    Better yet just make the scooters tap to pay on device.
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
partiallypro 8y ago
Not only is there no network effect, but capital cost and cost of market entry is very low. Unless Bird's ultimate goal is to block competitors by lobbying cities or licensing to cities like some bike sharing companies do limiting competition, which is entirely possible.
- drewmate 8y ago
  In many ways, it seems very similar to the taxi industry, which only seems to be as profitable as it is (in addition to safe and reliable) thanks to regulation and a sanctioned geographic monopoly. Somehow I doubt such a monopoly will be granted to a single corporation like Bird, though perhaps there is another path to viability.

sonnyblarney 8y ago

"It’s crazy that a startup bound by logistics is growing this fast." I think basically they launched in a city and were able to demonstrate the unit metrics on some level - and os use the 'Uber theory' they can justify to investors multiplying that across 100's of cities as fast as they can. Taking on a lot of cash might make sense as market dominance might create a systematic advantage. Strong note: this sharing stuff is massive in China, in a way, it's something 'invented there' and investors are on to that. So just like the US built out some things that Chinese innovators were able to adapt/copy and scale quickly due to the already validated model ... this has a little bit of the inverse going for it. And surpluses are generally a lot higher in North America for everything. So if the unit economics work, then there's some rationality about the big raise. I do believe however it may not pan out due to major risks: > Unit economics over the long haul are not what they want > The recharging model doesn't really take hold > People outside of LA don't really 'get' the scooter thing and cities shut them down due to various regulations and risks > Not a powerful competitive advantage. Uber will exist I believe in one way or another in 10 years, it's just a matter of how profitable they will be, how big investors win/lose. Bird ... it's risky for sure, but risk is part of VC.