4 ms·
First, frequency != probability. What negative outcome is expected by sharing the actual values though?
by nonbel 8y ago
First, frequency != probability. What negative outcome is expected by sharing the actual values though?
- gowld 8y agoTo the extent that probability means anything in the real world, it means frequency. The domain of the frequency is the rub.
- jessriedel 8y agoYes, and correlation doesn't imply causation except when it does. Say, a patient doesn't take an important drug because the 0.001% chance of death seems too large, or alternatively they are falsely comforted by a seemingly-small 1% chance of death.
- nonbel 8y agoI don't get it, "seems to0 large" and "seemingly-small" according to who? It seems like you are against the patient doing their own cost-benefit analysis and instead someone else needs to be doing it for them. Who and on what basis?
- jessriedel 8y agoSo, we can first infer that the patient isn't correctly taking the numbers under advisement because they use them inconsistently (e.g., they worry more about four things that are 1 in a million rather than one thing that's 1 in 10 thousand). The question of how to align the patients understanding and actions with what they would do if they had perfect knowledge and intelligence is of course fraught, but one way is to compare medical risks to other risks they understand more intuitively. It's a big topic.