4 ms·

I think he's made a lot of money investing in startups so characterizing him as totally passive is a bit unfair. A more appropriate analogy would be something l

I think he's made a lot of money investing in startups so characterizing him as totally passive is a bit unfair. A more appropriate analogy would be something like poker, where there's some skill involved in addition to luck. But it's harder to teach investing in startups than playing poker

lostcolony 8y ago
Maybe, except poker has a fixed set of contexts. The hands you can hold, the hands your competition can hold, the winning and loss conditions, are fully enumerated. And you still can't assume that someone who did really well at a professional level can teach others to play at that level. How much worse in the land of startups when none of those things are fully enumerable or known? If you want to draw that analogy, I think Pratchett's statement in Good Omens about God playing dice with the universe is more accurate - “God does not play dice with the universe; He plays an ineffable game of His own devising, which might be compared, from the perspective of any of the other players [i.e. everybody], to being involved in an obscure and complex variant of poker in a pitch-dark room, with blank cards, for infinite stakes, with a Dealer who won't tell you the rules, and who smiles all the time.”
- aaavl2821 8y ago
  I guess another way to think about it is with a sports analogy haha: he's like a coach of a professional team. Not all professional coaches were the best players, but many of them played professionally and were just good students of the game. That's maybe a better characterization of Sam: he played in the "big leagues", wasn't a huge success, but did well as a coach / angel afterwards
- TheCoelacanth 8y ago
  God plays Calvinball with the universe.
jacquesm 8y ago
> I think he's made a lot of money investing in startups That's not how I see it. He got lucky being in one of the first YC batches, had his failing start-up Loopt acquired for a very slight premium over all investments up to that point. Then for some reason Paul Graham made him CEO of YC. Now, Paul is anything but dumb so obviously Sam Altman has some qualities and quite possibly he will be instrumental in leveling up YC. But so far all that has happened is that he's tended the garden that others have built. Making money when you start with a large pile of money is a reasonably sure thing.
- aaavl2821 8y ago
  I believe he made a good amount of money investing independent of YC before he joined. He was a scout for sequoia and invested from his proceeds from the sale of loopt. That doesn't necessarily qualify him to lead YC but I do think he has an angel investing track record independent of YC that is quite good compared to peers. But you're right, his relationship with PG probably had more to do with him getting his current job

lostcolony 8y ago

Maybe, except poker has a fixed set of contexts. The hands you can hold, the hands your competition can hold, the winning and loss conditions, are fully enumerated. And you still can't assume that someone who did really well at a professional level can teach others to play at that level. How much worse in the land of startups when none of those things are fully enumerable or known? If you want to draw that analogy, I think Pratchett's statement in Good Omens about God playing dice with the universe is more accurate - “God does not play dice with the universe; He plays an ineffable game of His own devising, which might be compared, from the perspective of any of the other players [i.e. everybody], to being involved in an obscure and complex variant of poker in a pitch-dark room, with blank cards, for infinite stakes, with a Dealer who won't tell you the rules, and who smiles all the time.”

aaavl2821 8y ago
I guess another way to think about it is with a sports analogy haha: he's like a coach of a professional team. Not all professional coaches were the best players, but many of them played professionally and were just good students of the game. That's maybe a better characterization of Sam: he played in the "big leagues", wasn't a huge success, but did well as a coach / angel afterwards
TheCoelacanth 8y ago
God plays Calvinball with the universe.

jacquesm 8y ago

> I think he's made a lot of money investing in startups That's not how I see it. He got lucky being in one of the first YC batches, had his failing start-up Loopt acquired for a very slight premium over all investments up to that point. Then for some reason Paul Graham made him CEO of YC. Now, Paul is anything but dumb so obviously Sam Altman has some qualities and quite possibly he will be instrumental in leveling up YC. But so far all that has happened is that he's tended the garden that others have built. Making money when you start with a large pile of money is a reasonably sure thing.

aaavl2821 8y ago
I believe he made a good amount of money investing independent of YC before he joined. He was a scout for sequoia and invested from his proceeds from the sale of loopt. That doesn't necessarily qualify him to lead YC but I do think he has an angel investing track record independent of YC that is quite good compared to peers. But you're right, his relationship with PG probably had more to do with him getting his current job