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I think you should stay in school. I know it’s harder t justify in America where it’s really expensive, but the benefits can be immense if you use your time in

I think you should stay in school. I know it’s harder t justify in America where it’s really expensive, but the benefits can be immense if you use your time in the educational institutions correct. It’s really the most secure path to a meaningful life if you’re willing to work hard at bettering yourself. That being said I think the article stumbles a little. Where there 1000 Steve Jobs and Wozes working on a personal computer at the time? Where there 1000 people working on an global online payment system when Musk was building PayPal? I think timing is important, but I don’t think luck makes that much of a difference. You don’t obtain connections by being lucky, for instance, you obtain them because you want them and work hard at it.

AJ007 8y ago
When I dropped out of school I thought the odds on the outcome of staying and graduating were worse than leaving. The bad outcome having been getting an average salary at a job I was unhappy with. I dropped out with a tiny income from my business, and the extra free time made a massive difference within 12 months. The biggest lesson I’ve learned was to think through problems myself. There are a lot of degrees and dimensions to success. If you live in a first world country, are physically healthy, and everything is working with your brain, you are 90% of the way there. Exceptionalism is not a requirement to success.
- TrinaryWorksToo 8y ago
  That in itself sounds exceptional.
blackflame7000 8y ago
"You don’t obtain connections by being lucky, for instance, you obtain them because you want them and work hard at it."- I have to disagree. You have little control who comes into your life outside your 1st and maybe 2nd degree of separation. You have almost no control over who will be assigned your freshman dormmate, your instructors, or even your boss. You can't work hard to be put in the same dorm as mark zuckerberg. That is just plain flat out luck. However, smart people are attracted to other smart people and that is why smart people tend to "Create" their own luck. They dont posses any special ability, per say, other than a desirable trait that others like them want to exalt.
- TAForObvReasons 8y ago
  The luck really starts with your parents and grandparents, as their financial status generally determines your early social network. http://philip.greenspun.com/bg/ http://philip.greenspun.com/bg/ discussed some of Gates' early advantages, like having a trust fund to fall back on if risks don't pan out.
  - blackflame7000 8y ago
    But that excludes countless counterexamples with people being born with nothing and becoming self-made millionaires. Again that's not luck its a product of work.
    - TheOtherHobbes 8y ago
      And that excludes even more countless examples of those who work hard and fail. There are vastly more of the latter than the former. Work - if it’s the right kind of work - can only ever increase your odds. It can never guarantee success. What’s needed is hard data about the relative influence of market fit, hours worked, personality, network and wealth of origin, and so on.
      - BkBlue 8y ago
        Analysis paralysis is arguably as dangerous as survivorship bias. Of course winning the genetic lottery bestows tremendous advantage. And of course luck is a huge variable. But the intersection of luck, preparation, and willingness is serendipity. And every successful entrepreneur has that in spades in the end, regardless of where they started. Sure that sounds like another empty platitude, but the fact of the matter is there is no formula or one simple trick.
        civilitty 8y ago
        I fear that winning the genetic lottery is more than just a simple advantage. In the case of being born into a wealthy family, it turns the situation from "it's all up to you to succeed" into "all you have to do is not fuck up." Since tremendous luck, good or bad, is relatively rare the condition from generation to generation just doesn't change much - regardless of hard work - except in so much as society itself grows wealthier.
erikb 8y ago
Young people usually don't look for "secure" though. But I would say if you don't have rich parents it is even the quickest way with the most success. Even the chance to a successful startup increases if one follows a stable career path in the beginning. Everyone who succeeded without it, like Bill Gates, actually succeeded because they had a secret joker through the success of their parents. I myself had to become 30+ before I understood this, though.
ainiriand 8y ago
Agree 100%. Reminds me of what they say in Wall Street, to be successful dont try to time the market, put time in the market.

AJ007 8y ago

When I dropped out of school I thought the odds on the outcome of staying and graduating were worse than leaving. The bad outcome having been getting an average salary at a job I was unhappy with. I dropped out with a tiny income from my business, and the extra free time made a massive difference within 12 months. The biggest lesson I’ve learned was to think through problems myself. There are a lot of degrees and dimensions to success. If you live in a first world country, are physically healthy, and everything is working with your brain, you are 90% of the way there. Exceptionalism is not a requirement to success.

TrinaryWorksToo 8y ago
That in itself sounds exceptional.

blackflame7000 8y ago

"You don’t obtain connections by being lucky, for instance, you obtain them because you want them and work hard at it."- I have to disagree. You have little control who comes into your life outside your 1st and maybe 2nd degree of separation. You have almost no control over who will be assigned your freshman dormmate, your instructors, or even your boss. You can't work hard to be put in the same dorm as mark zuckerberg. That is just plain flat out luck. However, smart people are attracted to other smart people and that is why smart people tend to "Create" their own luck. They dont posses any special ability, per say, other than a desirable trait that others like them want to exalt.

TAForObvReasons 8y ago
The luck really starts with your parents and grandparents, as their financial status generally determines your early social network. http://philip.greenspun.com/bg/ http://philip.greenspun.com/bg/ discussed some of Gates' early advantages, like having a trust fund to fall back on if risks don't pan out.
- blackflame7000 8y ago
  But that excludes countless counterexamples with people being born with nothing and becoming self-made millionaires. Again that's not luck its a product of work.
  - TheOtherHobbes 8y ago
    And that excludes even more countless examples of those who work hard and fail. There are vastly more of the latter than the former. Work - if it’s the right kind of work - can only ever increase your odds. It can never guarantee success. What’s needed is hard data about the relative influence of market fit, hours worked, personality, network and wealth of origin, and so on.
    - BkBlue 8y ago
      Analysis paralysis is arguably as dangerous as survivorship bias. Of course winning the genetic lottery bestows tremendous advantage. And of course luck is a huge variable. But the intersection of luck, preparation, and willingness is serendipity. And every successful entrepreneur has that in spades in the end, regardless of where they started. Sure that sounds like another empty platitude, but the fact of the matter is there is no formula or one simple trick.
      - civilitty 8y ago
        I fear that winning the genetic lottery is more than just a simple advantage. In the case of being born into a wealthy family, it turns the situation from "it's all up to you to succeed" into "all you have to do is not fuck up." Since tremendous luck, good or bad, is relatively rare the condition from generation to generation just doesn't change much - regardless of hard work - except in so much as society itself grows wealthier.

erikb 8y ago

Young people usually don't look for "secure" though. But I would say if you don't have rich parents it is even the quickest way with the most success. Even the chance to a successful startup increases if one follows a stable career path in the beginning. Everyone who succeeded without it, like Bill Gates, actually succeeded because they had a secret joker through the success of their parents. I myself had to become 30+ before I understood this, though.

ainiriand 8y ago

Agree 100%. Reminds me of what they say in Wall Street, to be successful dont try to time the market, put time in the market.