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I think the reason Musk and Tesla are very sensitive about production numbers right now is that they want to hit their 200k electric car production number at ju

I think the reason Musk and Tesla are very sensitive about production numbers right now is that they want to hit their 200k electric car production number at just the right time. The way the $7500 federal tax credit works (and I am pretty certain this is right. Happy to follow a link to the actual law) is that after a company makes 200k qualifying vehicles, for the rest of that quarter and the quarter after that people still get the tax credit. So depending on when they hit the 200,000th car, the full tax credit will last between 3 and 6 months. Tesla would like to get the Model 3 production ramped up to a high level but not hit the 200k total production until right after the start of a quarter. It looks like they are going to do just that. Tesla is very close to 200k this month and that is probably partly why they shut down to "improve production rate". Slow down production in June to not hit 200k until after July 1. They have also been playing with exporting more cars to hit the 200k number at just the right time. Having the maximum 6 months instead of the minimum 3 months will be a lot of extra cars/people getting the tax credit. If they average 6000 cars a week over that time (12 weeks x 6000 x $7500) that is an extra $540 million. Then the tax credit goes in half for the next two quarters and in half again ($7500/4) for the next 2 quarters. Seems a bit strange for the law not just to say the credit extends for 6 months after the 200,000th car is built, but who knows how such laws get crafted.

cjhopman 8y ago
Your whole premise is wrong. The credit's expiration is based on # of cars sold for use in the US. Not, in any way, on # of cars built.
- njarboe 8y ago
  You are right. I knew that as seen in my reference to selling cars overseas. I should have said sold domestically not built.
- toast0 8y ago
  It's not a direct link, but it's pretty close. You can't sell cars that aren't built, and if they're built, you want to sell them ASAP so you don't have to deal with inventory. That you can sell them to other countries helps with the inventory issue though.
  - zormino 8y ago
    With the number of preorders, can Tesla claim they are sold as soon as they are manufactured?
    - zwily 8y ago
      They are sold when they are paid for. The preorders are not paid for.
cjhopman 8y ago
> and I am pretty certain this is right. Happy to follow a link to the actual law it's not: https://www.irs.gov/irb/2009-48_IRB https://www.irs.gov/irb/2009-48_IRB
- njarboe 8y ago
  Thanks for the link. My basic understanding is correct, I believe, but should have said "sold in the US" rather than built. Since it is a US tax credit, I just assumed it was for cars people in the US bought and didn't include the cars not sold in the US. I wonder what that fraction might be. From a page linked on the page you gave: "The new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period." I believe this somewhat convoluted language says the same thing I did. The phase out lasts a year. 50% for the first 6 months and 25% for the next 6 months. This starts after the end of the first full quarter after the quarter where the domestic sales are greater than 200k (ie, between 3 and 6 months after 200k sold).
rohit2412 8y ago
And GM has also stated that they intend to do the same for bolt and hot the limit in quarter4. I would guess that's why they haven't scaled up yet, they just want to be a quarter away from Tesla.
s2g 8y ago
Or we could quit making excuses given that Elon consistently over-promises.
- njarboe 8y ago
  Elon Musk does use a lot of words to express uncertainty in his estimates. If you are working on doing things that no one has done before, then the timeline to success is highly uncertain. He would have to publish some kind of probability curve estimate of when he thinks things will get finished for us to really know how good his estimations are. Also, many times you need a first deadline for people to plan to shoot for, but some parts of the system won't get done in time and that deadline will slip. So when you say you are planning to get done on X date does not mean you think you are likely to be done on X date.

cjhopman 8y ago

Your whole premise is wrong. The credit's expiration is based on # of cars sold for use in the US. Not, in any way, on # of cars built.

njarboe 8y ago
You are right. I knew that as seen in my reference to selling cars overseas. I should have said sold domestically not built.
toast0 8y ago
It's not a direct link, but it's pretty close. You can't sell cars that aren't built, and if they're built, you want to sell them ASAP so you don't have to deal with inventory. That you can sell them to other countries helps with the inventory issue though.
- zormino 8y ago
  With the number of preorders, can Tesla claim they are sold as soon as they are manufactured?
  - zwily 8y ago
    They are sold when they are paid for. The preorders are not paid for.

cjhopman 8y ago

> and I am pretty certain this is right. Happy to follow a link to the actual law it's not: https://www.irs.gov/irb/2009-48_IRB https://www.irs.gov/irb/2009-48_IRB

njarboe 8y ago
Thanks for the link. My basic understanding is correct, I believe, but should have said "sold in the US" rather than built. Since it is a US tax credit, I just assumed it was for cars people in the US bought and didn't include the cars not sold in the US. I wonder what that fraction might be. From a page linked on the page you gave: "The new qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period." I believe this somewhat convoluted language says the same thing I did. The phase out lasts a year. 50% for the first 6 months and 25% for the next 6 months. This starts after the end of the first full quarter after the quarter where the domestic sales are greater than 200k (ie, between 3 and 6 months after 200k sold).

rohit2412 8y ago

And GM has also stated that they intend to do the same for bolt and hot the limit in quarter4. I would guess that's why they haven't scaled up yet, they just want to be a quarter away from Tesla.

s2g 8y ago

Or we could quit making excuses given that Elon consistently over-promises.

njarboe 8y ago
Elon Musk does use a lot of words to express uncertainty in his estimates. If you are working on doing things that no one has done before, then the timeline to success is highly uncertain. He would have to publish some kind of probability curve estimate of when he thinks things will get finished for us to really know how good his estimations are. Also, many times you need a first deadline for people to plan to shoot for, but some parts of the system won't get done in time and that deadline will slip. So when you say you are planning to get done on X date does not mean you think you are likely to be done on X date.