4 ms·
The thesis of the article is not "lets conclude whatever I want" The foundational assumption is that (a) historically people have just picked the values for th
by mechsquirrel 8y ago
The thesis of the article is not "lets conclude whatever I want"
The foundational assumption is that (a) historically people have just picked the values for the Drake Equation that "felt right", and this is wrong, biased, and stupid, and (b) we should not be surprised if the Drake parameters fall in any order of magnitude. So let's Monte Carlo in a log-scaled distribution (roughly). Thus, given what we actually do know, median civilizations per galaxy is 0.32, average is 27 million.
Interestingly, this suggests that optimistic Drake Equation parameters must be wrong, lest they create an empirically impossibly-populated galaxy.