"Large differences from the trend reflect the fact that only 19 percent of the variation in fertility changes can be predicted by home value changes." I would

"Large differences from the trend reflect the fact that only 19 percent of the variation in fertility changes can be predicted by home value changes." I would think high university tuition and student loans also play a big part in decreasing disposable income to the point where college-educated couples are delaying starting a family or having fewer kids. I think most people believe that a 4-year college education is mandatory for a decent life in the US these days (I don't agree), so it's rational for a couple to decide to have only 1 kid that they can afford to educate vs 2. Kids used to be able to pay for their own tuition with a part-time job. It may have taken 6 years to graduate, but it was doable. That is a lot harder / impossible now.