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The plan is a gerrymander that maximally concentrates people likely to vote Democratic into one state along the coast. Democrats have had enough of gerrymander

The plan is a gerrymander that maximally concentrates people likely to vote Democratic into one state along the coast. Democrats have had enough of gerrymandering, and California is pretty blue these days. This won't pass.

creaghpatr 8y ago
Sure but if I'm not mistaken they would gain 4 additional Senators (collectively) which would theoretically 'balance' the fracturing and likely loss of democrat house seats and/or electoral votes. Democrats have a greater disadvantage in the Senate currently so this could be good for them in the short term- they could swing the Senate under the current Congress which is a huge deal. I don't have an opinion on whether that's better or worse, but there are pros and cons. I doubt it will happen but it's a more plausible debate than succession at least.
- rectang 8y ago
  The issue is not just Senators. Splitting California is also an electoral college win for Republicans, and a state government win as well. Secession would be a cowardly abandonment of those who are treated poorly in other states.
  - throwaway5752 8y ago
    Bingo. It fractures a powerful adversary for the parties pushing this. This comes up all the time with NYC/Long Island and New York (but, curiously, not for Texas or Florida) for the same reason. There are advantages to controlling the largest state in the country, and that advantage would shift to Texas. Since in either outcome this causes distraction and dissension, it's already a victory.
    - protomyth 8y ago
      There has been talk of splitting Texas into 5 states. Florida has had a South Florida split talks in the past. New York City would be interesting because it seems like a split would really need to cross state lines which would make it really, really difficult.
      - throwaway5752 8y ago
        "There has been talk of splitting Texas into 5 states" - 1845 "Florida has had a South Florida split talks in the past" - Municipal level NY and CA are on a whole different level than anything else in recent history.
- mikelward 8y ago
  Where does it say the house district lines are changing?
shostack 8y ago
So if a hostile foreign nation is looking to sow chaos and discord to ultimately pit Americans against each other during the election, which angle will they push on social media for this?
- AnimalMuppet 8y ago
  Both sides. The goal is the chaos and discord, not a particular outcome. They would make the debate very strange, though. At least some of the agitation will sound literally foreign to our normal concerns.
mikelward 8y ago
The state containing San Francisco would lean Democrat. The state containing Los Angeles would lean Democrat. The third state (San Diego, Fresno, Bakersfield) would lean Republican. That seems more representative to me? http://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-political-geography/ http://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-political-geogra...
- rectang 8y ago
  Applying that logic to only California and not other states like Texas produces a partisan result. If all red states were to be winner-take-all in the electoral college, and all blue states were to split their electors according to vote percentages, that would not be more "representative".
  - mikelward 8y ago
    Ah, yes, I suppose the Democrats would gain Senators but lose Electoral College votes.
    - AnimalMuppet 8y ago
      I don't see it. Currently the Democrats have two senators from California. Do the three-way split, and Democrats have two senators from California-SF and two from California-LA, and the Republicans have two senators from California-EverywhereElse. Democrats gained two senators, and Republicans gained two senators. That seems neutral to me.
      - mikelward 8y ago
        You're right.
    - angryasian 8y ago
      sentors would technically be the same count. Currently California is +2 Dems In the new plan it would most likely be +2 Dems +2 Rep +2 Dems = +2 Dems So no new gain. Where it would hurt would be the electorate college. California has 55, now 1/3rd of that would go to Rep.
curun1r 8y ago
Everyone is looking at the impact on national politics, but this won't pass because of state politics, particularly water politics. Southern California just doesn't get enough rain and if Northern California were separate, they'd vote, either directly by proposition or through representatives, to keep it all or sell it at market rates. Southern California agriculture interests can't let that happen.

creaghpatr 8y ago

Sure but if I'm not mistaken they would gain 4 additional Senators (collectively) which would theoretically 'balance' the fracturing and likely loss of democrat house seats and/or electoral votes. Democrats have a greater disadvantage in the Senate currently so this could be good for them in the short term- they could swing the Senate under the current Congress which is a huge deal. I don't have an opinion on whether that's better or worse, but there are pros and cons. I doubt it will happen but it's a more plausible debate than succession at least.

rectang 8y ago
The issue is not just Senators. Splitting California is also an electoral college win for Republicans, and a state government win as well. Secession would be a cowardly abandonment of those who are treated poorly in other states.
- throwaway5752 8y ago
  Bingo. It fractures a powerful adversary for the parties pushing this. This comes up all the time with NYC/Long Island and New York (but, curiously, not for Texas or Florida) for the same reason. There are advantages to controlling the largest state in the country, and that advantage would shift to Texas. Since in either outcome this causes distraction and dissension, it's already a victory.
  - protomyth 8y ago
    There has been talk of splitting Texas into 5 states. Florida has had a South Florida split talks in the past. New York City would be interesting because it seems like a split would really need to cross state lines which would make it really, really difficult.
    - throwaway5752 8y ago
      "There has been talk of splitting Texas into 5 states" - 1845 "Florida has had a South Florida split talks in the past" - Municipal level NY and CA are on a whole different level than anything else in recent history.
mikelward 8y ago
Where does it say the house district lines are changing?

shostack 8y ago

So if a hostile foreign nation is looking to sow chaos and discord to ultimately pit Americans against each other during the election, which angle will they push on social media for this?

AnimalMuppet 8y ago
Both sides. The goal is the chaos and discord, not a particular outcome. They would make the debate very strange, though. At least some of the agitation will sound literally foreign to our normal concerns.

mikelward 8y ago

The state containing San Francisco would lean Democrat. The state containing Los Angeles would lean Democrat. The third state (San Diego, Fresno, Bakersfield) would lean Republican. That seems more representative to me? http://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-political-geography/ http://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-political-geogra...

rectang 8y ago
Applying that logic to only California and not other states like Texas produces a partisan result. If all red states were to be winner-take-all in the electoral college, and all blue states were to split their electors according to vote percentages, that would not be more "representative".
- mikelward 8y ago
  Ah, yes, I suppose the Democrats would gain Senators but lose Electoral College votes.
  - AnimalMuppet 8y ago
    I don't see it. Currently the Democrats have two senators from California. Do the three-way split, and Democrats have two senators from California-SF and two from California-LA, and the Republicans have two senators from California-EverywhereElse. Democrats gained two senators, and Republicans gained two senators. That seems neutral to me.
    - mikelward 8y ago
      You're right.
  - angryasian 8y ago
    sentors would technically be the same count. Currently California is +2 Dems In the new plan it would most likely be +2 Dems +2 Rep +2 Dems = +2 Dems So no new gain. Where it would hurt would be the electorate college. California has 55, now 1/3rd of that would go to Rep.

curun1r 8y ago

Everyone is looking at the impact on national politics, but this won't pass because of state politics, particularly water politics. Southern California just doesn't get enough rain and if Northern California were separate, they'd vote, either directly by proposition or through representatives, to keep it all or sell it at market rates. Southern California agriculture interests can't let that happen.