An interesting point made in https://web.math.princeton.edu/~kollar/FromMyHomePage/fm-essay.pdf https://web.math.princeton.edu/~kollar/FromMyHomePage/fm-ess...

An interesting point made in https://web.math.princeton.edu/~kollar/FromMyHomePage/fm-essay.pdf https://web.math.princeton.edu/~kollar/FromMyHomePage/fm-ess... is that getting a fields medal is good for longevity, but bad if you "nearly got it": +8 yrs if you get it, -6 for "just missed" (see p. 6.) The main point of the article is not about longevity, but rather: does the award lead to better or worse research? (It is awarded relatively early.)