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I always wonder if those people have tried to fit their approach to past results. Could they simulate past World Cup results to be sure their method is sane by
by caio1982 8y ago
I always wonder if those people have tried to fit their approach to past results. Could they simulate past World Cup results to be sure their method is sane by using player/team's archived statistics?
- mycodebreaks 8y agoLike the advise on investment products - past performance is not an indicator for future returns.
- maaaats 8y agoNo, but the model should fit. Otherwise, why should it fit now?
- maxxxxx 8y agoExactly. Past performance is not everything but it certainly is a prerequisite for prediction the future.
- everdev 8y agoUnless they take into account modern things like travel time (was probably a bigger factor decades ago with fewer connecting and long-distance flights), ref nationality (used to be a huge point of contention for accusations of favoritism, now probably less so because of video), VAR (maybe some teams are better at getting away with dirty tricks than others, but now can't with video review), etc. I'm sure an accurate model has to be updated as culture and technology changes and impacts the game itself.
- avip 8y ago3.4 Combining methods [...] are now compared with regard to their predictive performance. For this purpose, we apply the following general procedure: 1. Form a training data set containing three out of four World Cups. 2. Fit each of the methods to the training data. 3. Predict the left-out World Cup using each of the prediction methods. 4. Iterate steps 1-3 such that each World Cup is once the left-out one. 5. Compare predicted and real outcomes for all prediction methods.
- nonbel 8y agoDo they say they only did this once? Or do they imply they did hyperparam tuning, pipeline optimization, etc using one or more (or all) of the world cups included for the cv?