4 ms·

The dockless approach doesn't work. People rightfully hate the race-to-the-bottom that leads to bikes/scooters being dumped everywhere. Once you accept the dock

by dnomad 8y ago

The dockless approach doesn't work. People rightfully hate the race-to-the-bottom that leads to bikes/scooters being dumped everywhere. Once you accept the dockless approach doesn't work there's three interesting possibilities: 1) The city picks a winner. This could be done fairly by auctioning off a five year contract or it could be done via corruption. Either way the scooter companies should be taking the millions they've raised and greasing officials. 2) Establish a market for docks. There's an interesting opportunity here in that scooter "stations" don't need to be the sort of big official stations that have beeen deployed for bikes where each station holds 30+ bikes. You could imagine a lot of small business, stores, etc. offering to host small stations that hold 4-5 scooters on their own private property. The scooter companies would then either race to lease as many of these stations as possible or would be forced to pay each time a scooter of theirs gets docked at the station. The winner is the company that owns the most stations. That's a real moat and the stations become real assets. 3) The simplest solution is probably to just to give people scooters. Let people "lease" a scooter and trade in these "leased" scooters at any time 24/7. Trade ins need not be a big centralized, complicated thing; you could imagine something like a scooter delivery service. In <20 minutes an Uber shows up and drops off a new scooter and collects an old one. Don't charge people if the scooter is stolen or breaks but do charge people if their scooter is left on the sidewalk and gets seized by the city. Then it would be up to individuals to make sure their scooter doesn't get left on public property. Scooters are so small -- and only getting smaller and more portable -- that you could imagine that most people won't mind stashing them under their desk/in their office. All three of these possibilities btw lead to a single winner. At the end of the day, like with most transportation plays, you're looking at powerful economies of scale where the big guys only get bigger. It's a market to invest in if you think you can pick the winner cuz that winner probably will take all.

dnomad 8y ago
The entire dockless business model started in China and they're way ahead with the backlash. Shanghai has cracked down hard [1] but it's still a huge problem with bikes being dumped all over the place [2]. If people can move past the dockless approach and realize it doesn't scale then we might get more efficient business models that could be defended without gobs of VC money. [1] http://www.wri.org/blog/2018/01/chinese-cities-aim-rein-bike-sharing-boom http://www.wri.org/blog/2018/01/chinese-cities-aim-rein-bike... [2] https://news.sky.com/story/in-china-rental-bikes-have-become-a-social-menace-11191053 https://news.sky.com/story/in-china-rental-bikes-have-become...
- Camillo 8y ago
  But scooters are _much_ smaller than bikes, and Americans are _much_ less likely to ride scooters or bikes than the Chinese are. I haven't seen anything close to those Chinese scenes in San Francisco while they had scooters. In fact, I haven't really seen anything that looked like much of a problem, in terms of parking. Anyway, cities could make parking rules and require the scooter companies to help with enforcement. E.g., to lock the scooter you have to park it properly and take a picture with the app. The city's parking enforcement gets access to the pictures and can fine people without even having to get off their chairs. The real problem with scooters, from what I've heard, is that boomers hate them because they're new and because some people ride them on the sidewalks. But the dock solution does not help at all with that.
dsfyu404ed 8y ago
>Either way the scooter companies should be taking the millions they've raised and greasing officials. Refreshingly honest.
Karrot_Kream 8y ago
> Establish a market for docks. Fascinating idea, thanks for that analysis.
woolvalley 8y ago
I don't think the docked approach works well either, because the heavyweight docks are never close enough to where you want them to be. It's really just a parking problem. We don't want another cable company / taxis v2 and 'pick' a winner with horrible service. You mandate that these things need to be locked to something and most of the problem resolves itself. Businesses that want it to be easier to shop where they are will install bike racks. The city will fund new bike racks with scooter permits. You could even allow scooter companies to install and pay for new bike racks themselves as they probably understand demand dynamics far better than random cities. If the scooter companies install the racks, you just have to say they can be used by everyone and are owned by the city. We don't need heavy duty docking systems that are exclusionary to one docking company. A simple cheap metal bike rack that everyone can use will be plenty enough and more economically efficient. You can also detect if the renter rider puts the scooter in the right area or if someone is screwing with the scooters after the fact with accelerometers. You could even detect if they are in a tipped over state or not.
- DrScump 8y ago
  You can also detect if... someone is screwing with the scooters after the fact with accelerometers How does that help you? You can't do anything about it.
  - woolvalley 8y ago
    It's how you attribute parking tickets. If you can tell the renter did the action, then you can pass the ticket to them, which incentives them to keep it upright. It also lets you put them back up with workers: https://www.limebike.com/blog/new-tech-helping-lime-keep-bikes-electric-scooters-upright https://www.limebike.com/blog/new-tech-helping-lime-keep-bik... Also by locking the devices the likelihood of them falling or being in the way is low.
    - DrScump 8y ago
      If you can tell the renter did the action But you can't, without onboard video, anyway. Anybody wanting to steal or vandalize a scooter won't do so on one for which they are (or just were) an active renter. by locking the devices the likelihood of them falling or being in the way is low I don't get that at all. All locking does is prevents unpaid usage as a scooter; it doesn't prevent theft, vandalism, or bad acts with it (e.g. piling a bunch of them in the CEO's driveway as a protest).
shanghaiaway 8y ago
4) It creates a larger market for scooters. Nobody wants to deal with docks.
lozenge 8y ago
It's worth noting that docks can be virtual now - as simple as a few painted lines and a rugged Bluetooth device without a screen, that shakes hands with hardware installed in the scooter.

by dnomad 8y ago

dnomad 8y ago

The entire dockless business model started in China and they're way ahead with the backlash. Shanghai has cracked down hard [1] but it's still a huge problem with bikes being dumped all over the place [2]. If people can move past the dockless approach and realize it doesn't scale then we might get more efficient business models that could be defended without gobs of VC money. [1] http://www.wri.org/blog/2018/01/chinese-cities-aim-rein-bike-sharing-boom http://www.wri.org/blog/2018/01/chinese-cities-aim-rein-bike... [2] https://news.sky.com/story/in-china-rental-bikes-have-become-a-social-menace-11191053 https://news.sky.com/story/in-china-rental-bikes-have-become...

Camillo 8y ago
But scooters are _much_ smaller than bikes, and Americans are _much_ less likely to ride scooters or bikes than the Chinese are. I haven't seen anything close to those Chinese scenes in San Francisco while they had scooters. In fact, I haven't really seen anything that looked like much of a problem, in terms of parking. Anyway, cities could make parking rules and require the scooter companies to help with enforcement. E.g., to lock the scooter you have to park it properly and take a picture with the app. The city's parking enforcement gets access to the pictures and can fine people without even having to get off their chairs. The real problem with scooters, from what I've heard, is that boomers hate them because they're new and because some people ride them on the sidewalks. But the dock solution does not help at all with that.

dsfyu404ed 8y ago

>Either way the scooter companies should be taking the millions they've raised and greasing officials. Refreshingly honest.

Karrot_Kream 8y ago

> Establish a market for docks. Fascinating idea, thanks for that analysis.

woolvalley 8y ago

I don't think the docked approach works well either, because the heavyweight docks are never close enough to where you want them to be. It's really just a parking problem. We don't want another cable company / taxis v2 and 'pick' a winner with horrible service. You mandate that these things need to be locked to something and most of the problem resolves itself. Businesses that want it to be easier to shop where they are will install bike racks. The city will fund new bike racks with scooter permits. You could even allow scooter companies to install and pay for new bike racks themselves as they probably understand demand dynamics far better than random cities. If the scooter companies install the racks, you just have to say they can be used by everyone and are owned by the city. We don't need heavy duty docking systems that are exclusionary to one docking company. A simple cheap metal bike rack that everyone can use will be plenty enough and more economically efficient. You can also detect if the renter rider puts the scooter in the right area or if someone is screwing with the scooters after the fact with accelerometers. You could even detect if they are in a tipped over state or not.

DrScump 8y ago
You can also detect if... someone is screwing with the scooters after the fact with accelerometers How does that help you? You can't do anything about it.
- woolvalley 8y ago
  It's how you attribute parking tickets. If you can tell the renter did the action, then you can pass the ticket to them, which incentives them to keep it upright. It also lets you put them back up with workers: https://www.limebike.com/blog/new-tech-helping-lime-keep-bikes-electric-scooters-upright https://www.limebike.com/blog/new-tech-helping-lime-keep-bik... Also by locking the devices the likelihood of them falling or being in the way is low.
  - DrScump 8y ago
    If you can tell the renter did the action But you can't, without onboard video, anyway. Anybody wanting to steal or vandalize a scooter won't do so on one for which they are (or just were) an active renter. by locking the devices the likelihood of them falling or being in the way is low I don't get that at all. All locking does is prevents unpaid usage as a scooter; it doesn't prevent theft, vandalism, or bad acts with it (e.g. piling a bunch of them in the CEO's driveway as a protest).

shanghaiaway 8y ago

4) It creates a larger market for scooters. Nobody wants to deal with docks.

lozenge 8y ago

It's worth noting that docks can be virtual now - as simple as a few painted lines and a rugged Bluetooth device without a screen, that shakes hands with hardware installed in the scooter.