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Keep in mind that there is probably a significant selection effect going on there. In other words, if you don't plan on having children, expensive cities are st

Keep in mind that there is probably a significant selection effect going on there. In other words, if you don't plan on having children, expensive cities are still an option for you. Whereas if you plan on having children, they are not.

pitt1980 8y ago
Considering the ratio of career gains that go to those working in a few expensive cities, even if this is largely selection effects, I'm not sure this paints a very rosy picture of the society we're creating. I'm reminded of how few heads of EU states are parents https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do-childless-leaders-mean-the-death-of-europe-2017-05-26 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do-childless-leaders-mean-...
- JumpCrisscross 8y ago
  There is a Brazilian show on Netflix, 3%, that explores (caution: spoiler for Season 1) a sterile elite ruling over a dystopia.
- toasterlovin 8y ago
  This stage of the demographic transition is a huge problem, IMO. The more I think about it, the more it seems like a ratchet (as in, it only moves in one direction): Basically, two incomes are useful, so both people in a relationship pursue careers. Now they have more money to compete on the housing market. This seems like a good move, so others follow suit. At first this is largely a win for people who pursue this route. But, as more people do this, it becomes necessary in order to compete for real estate in good neighborhoods. Now there is an advantage to be had by putting off having a family even longer, or having even less children. So people do this. But as more and more people follow suit, the advantage evaporates. And so on and so forth until you have demographic implosion. For the life of me, I can’t see a way out of this in the short term. Maybe a wholesale transition to remote work?
  - nomocrypto 8y ago
    Sane zoning laws would be much easier and do a lot more to ease the burden on people (I currently live in an “OMG no high rises! Won’t someone think of the neighborhood character!?” city and the rent is ridiculous). We just have to have the political will to change them, which unfortunately means angering very powerful monied interests, including Betty and Edgar who really love their now-valued-at-$500,000 house next to downtown.
    - sien 8y ago
      This is bang on. Looking at the graph look where Harris County (Houston) and Dallas are. If the graphs were plotted with increase in population against the change in fertility then those places would be outliers. Texas zoning and tax on houses work. The funny thing about housing prices is that a state in the US has handled house prices so well with an economy that is doing well but Texas is often ignored in these discussions.
      - lotsofpulp 8y ago
        Thousands of acres with mcmansions in gated HOAs and no walkability sounds terrible.
      - CalRobert 8y ago
        Texas has pretty restrictive laws about parking minimums. It would be illegal to build a pleasant neighborhood (for my definition of pleasant) in Texas. Also, negative externalities of Texas' built environment (lung disease, cancer, potentially more autism near motorways(still early stages of research) dead people on roads, inability to travel or perform basic tasks for those who can't or prefer not to drive, being impoverished by your automobile, and the potential collapse of global civilization due to climate change) are not priced in, so often the neighbors or the rest of the world are paying for those houses.
      - krinchan 8y ago
        > Texas zoning and tax on houses work. Texas zoning also paved over all the marsh land that would've kept the city from flooding.
divanvisagie 8y ago
Yeah when I see stuff like this I'm reminded of this relevant XKCD: https://xkcd.com/925/ https://xkcd.com/925/
CalRobert 8y ago
Anecdatum, but: My wife and I live in an expensive city. It's pretty fun. Except, we just had a child. She's pretty fun too. In fact, we think we might like another. She makes all the fun stuff in the city irrelevant (not heading to the bars these days), and the bad stuff in the city pretty horrible. * She's inhaling poison every morning I walk her to creche. * If I let her ride a bike on our street she will die. So, thinking to ourselves "this is crap" we decided "let's have dad get a remote job and buy a cheap place in the country". She hates her job anyway. Lo and behold, a few days after we said "all right, that's it, we're doing it" she gets two interviews for jobs she'd really like, in her sector (museums and heritage) - In the city (around the corner, in fact). So, if she gets the job we're staying in the city and not having another kid. If she doesn't we're moving to the country and probably having another kid. In all this, you'll notice I never said "we could find a place with more room within a reasonable distance from her potential new job" - because it's not really an option. They're quite expensive, and on top of that, banks here (not the US) make it quite challenging to get a mortgage. We've managed to save a reasonable deposit (if we could get a mortgage) but can't quite buy a place in the city for cash. We could get a place in the country for cash, though.
- toasterlovin 8y ago
  Fuck the job. Do your one kid a favor and have another kid. Siblings are just about the most useful things you can have in life.
  - mkirklions 8y ago
    I hope to have a large family for this reason. I dont know if I'll have the time to give kids my full attention. I found my brother was/is the reason I'm a nerd. Sure my dad was a database manager, but I spend hours daily with my brother gaming. I dont even think I wanted to spend a half hour with my 'boring' dad.
    - toasterlovin 8y ago
      When thinking about having children and about the level of care and attention you’ll be able to give them, I think it’s useful to have the right comparison in mind. If you’re considering having another child, that child’s choices are not between your limited time and attention on the one hand and, on the other, parents who can shower them with time and attention. Instead, the alternative to your limited time and attention is never getting to be alive. When you frame things that way, the answer for parents who are considering another child is pretty much always to give the child the gift of life. In the developed world, at least.
alf-pogz 8y ago
Anecdotal, but I put off dating altogether when my salary was low and home prices were skyrocketing in my home town (San Diego). I left San Diego altogether two years ago, but I'm still suffering (perhaps too drastic of a word) from the affects of not even being in a relationship for over half a decade. Meaning, being with women used to come naturally to me, now it's generally awkward after being single for so long.

pitt1980 8y ago

Considering the ratio of career gains that go to those working in a few expensive cities, even if this is largely selection effects, I'm not sure this paints a very rosy picture of the society we're creating. I'm reminded of how few heads of EU states are parents https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do-childless-leaders-mean-the-death-of-europe-2017-05-26 https://www.marketwatch.com/story/do-childless-leaders-mean-...

JumpCrisscross 8y ago
There is a Brazilian show on Netflix, 3%, that explores (caution: spoiler for Season 1) a sterile elite ruling over a dystopia.
toasterlovin 8y ago
This stage of the demographic transition is a huge problem, IMO. The more I think about it, the more it seems like a ratchet (as in, it only moves in one direction): Basically, two incomes are useful, so both people in a relationship pursue careers. Now they have more money to compete on the housing market. This seems like a good move, so others follow suit. At first this is largely a win for people who pursue this route. But, as more people do this, it becomes necessary in order to compete for real estate in good neighborhoods. Now there is an advantage to be had by putting off having a family even longer, or having even less children. So people do this. But as more and more people follow suit, the advantage evaporates. And so on and so forth until you have demographic implosion. For the life of me, I can’t see a way out of this in the short term. Maybe a wholesale transition to remote work?
- nomocrypto 8y ago
  Sane zoning laws would be much easier and do a lot more to ease the burden on people (I currently live in an “OMG no high rises! Won’t someone think of the neighborhood character!?” city and the rent is ridiculous). We just have to have the political will to change them, which unfortunately means angering very powerful monied interests, including Betty and Edgar who really love their now-valued-at-$500,000 house next to downtown.
  - sien 8y ago
    This is bang on. Looking at the graph look where Harris County (Houston) and Dallas are. If the graphs were plotted with increase in population against the change in fertility then those places would be outliers. Texas zoning and tax on houses work. The funny thing about housing prices is that a state in the US has handled house prices so well with an economy that is doing well but Texas is often ignored in these discussions.
    - lotsofpulp 8y ago
      Thousands of acres with mcmansions in gated HOAs and no walkability sounds terrible.
    - CalRobert 8y ago
      Texas has pretty restrictive laws about parking minimums. It would be illegal to build a pleasant neighborhood (for my definition of pleasant) in Texas. Also, negative externalities of Texas' built environment (lung disease, cancer, potentially more autism near motorways(still early stages of research) dead people on roads, inability to travel or perform basic tasks for those who can't or prefer not to drive, being impoverished by your automobile, and the potential collapse of global civilization due to climate change) are not priced in, so often the neighbors or the rest of the world are paying for those houses.
    - krinchan 8y ago
      > Texas zoning and tax on houses work. Texas zoning also paved over all the marsh land that would've kept the city from flooding.

divanvisagie 8y ago

Yeah when I see stuff like this I'm reminded of this relevant XKCD: https://xkcd.com/925/ https://xkcd.com/925/

CalRobert 8y ago

Anecdatum, but: My wife and I live in an expensive city. It's pretty fun. Except, we just had a child. She's pretty fun too. In fact, we think we might like another. She makes all the fun stuff in the city irrelevant (not heading to the bars these days), and the bad stuff in the city pretty horrible. * She's inhaling poison every morning I walk her to creche. * If I let her ride a bike on our street she will die. So, thinking to ourselves "this is crap" we decided "let's have dad get a remote job and buy a cheap place in the country". She hates her job anyway. Lo and behold, a few days after we said "all right, that's it, we're doing it" she gets two interviews for jobs she'd really like, in her sector (museums and heritage) - In the city (around the corner, in fact). So, if she gets the job we're staying in the city and not having another kid. If she doesn't we're moving to the country and probably having another kid. In all this, you'll notice I never said "we could find a place with more room within a reasonable distance from her potential new job" - because it's not really an option. They're quite expensive, and on top of that, banks here (not the US) make it quite challenging to get a mortgage. We've managed to save a reasonable deposit (if we could get a mortgage) but can't quite buy a place in the city for cash. We could get a place in the country for cash, though.

toasterlovin 8y ago
Fuck the job. Do your one kid a favor and have another kid. Siblings are just about the most useful things you can have in life.
- mkirklions 8y ago
  I hope to have a large family for this reason. I dont know if I'll have the time to give kids my full attention. I found my brother was/is the reason I'm a nerd. Sure my dad was a database manager, but I spend hours daily with my brother gaming. I dont even think I wanted to spend a half hour with my 'boring' dad.
  - toasterlovin 8y ago
    When thinking about having children and about the level of care and attention you’ll be able to give them, I think it’s useful to have the right comparison in mind. If you’re considering having another child, that child’s choices are not between your limited time and attention on the one hand and, on the other, parents who can shower them with time and attention. Instead, the alternative to your limited time and attention is never getting to be alive. When you frame things that way, the answer for parents who are considering another child is pretty much always to give the child the gift of life. In the developed world, at least.

alf-pogz 8y ago

Anecdotal, but I put off dating altogether when my salary was low and home prices were skyrocketing in my home town (San Diego). I left San Diego altogether two years ago, but I'm still suffering (perhaps too drastic of a word) from the affects of not even being in a relationship for over half a decade. Meaning, being with women used to come naturally to me, now it's generally awkward after being single for so long.