You picked .5 or .25 as the multiplier. If it's still 2-5 years until a public offering, it's also quite possible for the multiplier to be closer to 1.5 or 2.

You picked .5 or .25 as the multiplier. If it's still 2-5 years until a public offering, it's also quite possible for the multiplier to be closer to 1.5 or 2. Everybody has a different assessment of how likely each outcome is, so everybody has a different expected value.