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This is a deceptive use of statistics because it's papering over all the nuance involved. Not all road miles are equivalent. Specifically, Tesla Autopilot onl
by JackCh 8y ago
This is a deceptive use of statistics because it's papering over all the nuance involved. Not all road miles are equivalent. Specifically, Tesla Autopilot only functions (or is meant to function) in a very narrow subset of all conceivable driving conditions. Many of the situations that Tesla Autopilot isn't meant for are the most dangerous conditions that unassisted humans drive in.
Furthermore the statistic doesn't break out the role of "Autopilot" features from the role of other safety features present in Tesla cars but not present in many other cars. More effective airbags, crumple zones, emergency braking(?) could all be lowering the fatality rate in Tesla cars enough to mask the "Tesla Autopilot" making driving more dangerous than if it weren't present.
Tesla fatality rates should be compared against equivalent class cars when driven by humans under the conditions which Tesla Autopilot are meant for.
- panarky 8y ago> Not all road miles are equivalent Great point. I'm looking for numbers and found this story [0] that says the fatality rate on rural roads is 2.5x urban highways. How many miles are driven on highways and how many fatalities? Does one human driver die per 100M, 200M, 300M miles? Should the standard for autonomous driving be 100%, 50%, or 10% of the human-driver standard before we agree that it's beneficial? [0] https://www.npr.org/2009/11/29/120716625/the-deadliest-roads-are-rural https://www.npr.org/2009/11/29/120716625/the-deadliest-roads...
- primesplitter 8y agoAlso one still needs to include the impact bad wheather conditions, where Tesla's AP is not to be used either. Then there's the impact of "incompetent" drivers on the statistic. As a toy example, consider a world where competent drivers cause 1 death per 100mm miles. AP causes 2 deaths per 100mm miles. However, 20% of all human drivers are driving while drunk and/or sleepy and cause 10 deaths per 100mm miles. This gives an average of 2.8 deaths per 100mm miles. Clearly, AP has a better average but you should only use it while you're drunk.