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When is Tesla going to bite the bullet and issue a full recall so they can retrofit all existing Tesla cars with LIDAR? They are still claiming on their websit

by JackCh 8y ago

When is Tesla going to bite the bullet and issue a full recall so they can retrofit all existing Tesla cars with LIDAR? They are still claiming on their website: >"All Tesla vehicles produced in our factory, including Model 3, have the hardware needed for full self-driving capability at a safety level substantially greater than that of a human driver." ...but without LIDAR that simply isn't true. Either the accident rate is going to accelerate, or their efforts to push out "full self-driving capability" will stall. And from what we've seen from this company so far, I'm afraid it's going to be the first. A recall to retrofit LIDAR is the only way they can save themselves from their marketing lie. They need to bite the bullet and fess up.

sushibowl 8y ago
Tesla disagrees with you on this, they are still operating with the belief that cameras will eventually be superior and cheaper compared to LIDAR. https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/7/16988628/elon-musk-lidar-self-driving-car-tesla https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/7/16988628/elon-musk-lidar-s...
- JackCh 8y ago
  I know they disagree with me, they have multiple reasons to bury their heads in the sand. Admitting they were wrong would be a PR disaster, it would probably hurt Elon's ego, and a recall to retrofit LIDAR would probably be extremely costly. But if you talk with the leading experts in the field of car automation, the research groups who are actually making it work to some degree today, they are all using LIDAR. Furthermore you have people like the CTO of Mobileye saying that Tesla was trying to push Mobileye's tech beyond what it's capable of (past tense was, because Mobileye apparently dropped Tesla over this, prompting Tesla to develop their own presumably equivalent non-LIDAR solution in house): https://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/09/tesla-dropped-by-mobileye-for-pushing-the-envelope-in-terms-of-safety/ https://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/09/tesla-dropped-by-mobile...
  - ageofwant 8y ago
    No. LIDAR has its place, but it certainly a tech that has seen its day. Integrated sensor arrays consisting of multiple cameras and image processors can build more accurate situational awareness pictures faster. And to imply that Tesla's automation assist is not working is ridiculous.
    - gamblor956 8y ago
      I think you have an unrealistic understanding of the state of visual processing systems today. The hardware simply isn't capable of the processing necessary to develop 360-degree situational awareness at the speeds that a vehicle would be driving.
    - JackCh 8y ago
      On the contrary, LIDAR is only recently coming into its own: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-08/alphabet-s-waymo-cuts-cost-of-key-self-driving-sensor-by-90 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-08/alphabet-... https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/01/googles-waymo-invests-in-lidar-technology-cuts-costs-by-90-percent/ https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/01/googles-waymo-invests-i... What I'm 'implying' (saying outright I thought) is that Tesla hardware is unsuitable for the continued advance of automation functionality. What they're doing currently is already pushing their inadequate sensors to the limit.
    - simion314 8y ago
      Are Tesla cars equipped with enough processing power? I agree that with some good cameras a ton of processing power and a super AI you could avoid crashes, I mean Tesla hit a fire Truck, the cameras would have been enough to detect the obstacle but the AI or the hardware needed to process the camera output is years behind what it should be.
- melling 8y ago
  Well, that’s not what the article says: “Musk reiterated his dislike of LIDAR and defended Tesla’s strategy of achieving “full autonomy” using only cameras, radar, and ultrasonic sensors.”
- gamblor956 8y ago
  At this point, nobody really cares what Tesla (or specifically, Musk) thinks about the virtues of cameras vs LIDAR. Autopilot's can't even sense stationary objects in front of the car. The most basic task of a self-driving system. Getting visual AI up to that point will require computing technology significantly more capable than what Tesla has on any of its vehicle--something on the order of two or three CPU/GPU generations more capable. By the time the visual processing hardware is up to the task, the cost of a LIDAR system will no longer be the most expensive part of the car. Hell, there are already systems in pre-production that now cost less than $2000/sensor, before economies of scale.
- r00fus 8y ago
  They're going to say that until they go full-LIDAR having purchased a guarantee from major suppliers they can later vertically integrate. Just like Apple did with so many things.
- Shivetya 8y ago
  I really am of the belief he talked Tesla into a corner here. While LIDAR is bulkier it offers so much beyond RADAR and cameras that its not truly up for debate. I could ramble but this article Wired[1] does it properly As for today's announcement I don't know what to say other than maybe they are trying to get in front of something they know is coming down from the NHTSA. I certainly hope they don't try to bluff them https://www.wired.com/story/lidar-self-driving-cars-luminar-video/ https://www.wired.com/story/lidar-self-driving-cars-luminar-...
avelis 8y ago
I believe Elon has stated it should not be necessary. However, he also tweetes if his compsny comes to find there is no other way without Lidar they will figure a way to upgrade the hardware at no additional cost to those who have prepaid for it.
- gamblor956 8y ago
  There's no way to update the Model X for LIDAR. It's structurally incapable of supporting any of the existing LIDAR systems in production or currently in development. The same could arguably be said for the Model S, due to the front monopane windshield. Even if these vehicles could be modified to support LIDAR systems, the modifications alone would likely cost upwards of $10,000 per vehicle, not including the cost of the LIDAR system (currently $20,000 for cheapest system offering 360 coverage). Those costs would bankrupt Tesla. At some point, Musk needs to learn to keep his mouth shut. A sales person making these types of claims can be disregarded on the grounds that a sales person may not have the authority to bind the company. But if the CEO says the same things, customers who purchase cars based on the CEO's representations can definitely sue the company for failure to deliver promised goods.
  - manyoso 8y ago
    Then all Musk needs to do is not allow Tesla to "come to find" out that LIDAR is necessary before the technology has advanced to such a degree that they can retrofit the Model X and to do so when the cost has come down sufficiently to afford it. Which is what he's currently doing. When they do finally admit that LIDAR is necessary, Elon will play the "no body could have foreseen this situation and we were operating under the best knowledge at the time" card. He's bullshit all the way down.
ageofwant 8y ago
LIDAR is not magic. You can get full situational awareness with boring old video these days. LIDAR was just easier to characterize back in the day before gigahertz ASIC AD video processors.
- gamblor956 8y ago
  LIDAR may be more expensive, but it has one huge advantage: it can identify stationary objects in 3D space. For a visual processing system to accomplish the same task, it must first: identify objects in a frame. Identify objects in the next frame. Identify objects in the images taken from the other cameras. Compare the objects, taking into account positional differences arising from the speed of the vehicle, and triangulate their positions relative to the vehicle. This is certainly doable (Microsoft Photosynth has been around for at least a decade), but each one of these tasks, and especially the last task, requires more processing power than Tesla has put into its vehicles.
  - todd8 8y ago
    Interestingly, it can be done even with a single sensor. We can map object’s 3D positions with just one eye. The brain uses the relative motion of various object in the scene due to forward motion induced parallax and other clues such as object size. It’s possible to drive with one eye covered, but might as well use multiple sensors if available. See “Depth Perception” at [1]. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depth_perception https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depth_perception
    - orbital-decay 8y ago
      Motion is not required either. There's a reason for a shallow DoF in big photographic lenses/sensors. Bokeh can be represented as a processed depth map.
    - Symmetry 8y ago
      Your brain is using something in the ballpark of a petaflop of computing power to do that sort of incredible stuff.

by JackCh 8y ago

sushibowl 8y ago

Tesla disagrees with you on this, they are still operating with the belief that cameras will eventually be superior and cheaper compared to LIDAR. https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/7/16988628/elon-musk-lidar-self-driving-car-tesla https://www.theverge.com/2018/2/7/16988628/elon-musk-lidar-s...

JackCh 8y ago
I know they disagree with me, they have multiple reasons to bury their heads in the sand. Admitting they were wrong would be a PR disaster, it would probably hurt Elon's ego, and a recall to retrofit LIDAR would probably be extremely costly. But if you talk with the leading experts in the field of car automation, the research groups who are actually making it work to some degree today, they are all using LIDAR. Furthermore you have people like the CTO of Mobileye saying that Tesla was trying to push Mobileye's tech beyond what it's capable of (past tense was, because Mobileye apparently dropped Tesla over this, prompting Tesla to develop their own presumably equivalent non-LIDAR solution in house): https://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/09/tesla-dropped-by-mobileye-for-pushing-the-envelope-in-terms-of-safety/ https://arstechnica.com/cars/2016/09/tesla-dropped-by-mobile...
- ageofwant 8y ago
  No. LIDAR has its place, but it certainly a tech that has seen its day. Integrated sensor arrays consisting of multiple cameras and image processors can build more accurate situational awareness pictures faster. And to imply that Tesla's automation assist is not working is ridiculous.
  - gamblor956 8y ago
    I think you have an unrealistic understanding of the state of visual processing systems today. The hardware simply isn't capable of the processing necessary to develop 360-degree situational awareness at the speeds that a vehicle would be driving.
  - JackCh 8y ago
    On the contrary, LIDAR is only recently coming into its own: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-08/alphabet-s-waymo-cuts-cost-of-key-self-driving-sensor-by-90 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-08/alphabet-... https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/01/googles-waymo-invests-in-lidar-technology-cuts-costs-by-90-percent/ https://arstechnica.com/cars/2017/01/googles-waymo-invests-i... What I'm 'implying' (saying outright I thought) is that Tesla hardware is unsuitable for the continued advance of automation functionality. What they're doing currently is already pushing their inadequate sensors to the limit.
  - simion314 8y ago
    Are Tesla cars equipped with enough processing power? I agree that with some good cameras a ton of processing power and a super AI you could avoid crashes, I mean Tesla hit a fire Truck, the cameras would have been enough to detect the obstacle but the AI or the hardware needed to process the camera output is years behind what it should be.
melling 8y ago
Well, that’s not what the article says: “Musk reiterated his dislike of LIDAR and defended Tesla’s strategy of achieving “full autonomy” using only cameras, radar, and ultrasonic sensors.”
gamblor956 8y ago
At this point, nobody really cares what Tesla (or specifically, Musk) thinks about the virtues of cameras vs LIDAR. Autopilot's can't even sense stationary objects in front of the car. The most basic task of a self-driving system. Getting visual AI up to that point will require computing technology significantly more capable than what Tesla has on any of its vehicle--something on the order of two or three CPU/GPU generations more capable. By the time the visual processing hardware is up to the task, the cost of a LIDAR system will no longer be the most expensive part of the car. Hell, there are already systems in pre-production that now cost less than $2000/sensor, before economies of scale.
r00fus 8y ago
They're going to say that until they go full-LIDAR having purchased a guarantee from major suppliers they can later vertically integrate. Just like Apple did with so many things.
Shivetya 8y ago
I really am of the belief he talked Tesla into a corner here. While LIDAR is bulkier it offers so much beyond RADAR and cameras that its not truly up for debate. I could ramble but this article Wired[1] does it properly As for today's announcement I don't know what to say other than maybe they are trying to get in front of something they know is coming down from the NHTSA. I certainly hope they don't try to bluff them https://www.wired.com/story/lidar-self-driving-cars-luminar-video/ https://www.wired.com/story/lidar-self-driving-cars-luminar-...

avelis 8y ago

I believe Elon has stated it should not be necessary. However, he also tweetes if his compsny comes to find there is no other way without Lidar they will figure a way to upgrade the hardware at no additional cost to those who have prepaid for it.

gamblor956 8y ago
There's no way to update the Model X for LIDAR. It's structurally incapable of supporting any of the existing LIDAR systems in production or currently in development. The same could arguably be said for the Model S, due to the front monopane windshield. Even if these vehicles could be modified to support LIDAR systems, the modifications alone would likely cost upwards of $10,000 per vehicle, not including the cost of the LIDAR system (currently $20,000 for cheapest system offering 360 coverage). Those costs would bankrupt Tesla. At some point, Musk needs to learn to keep his mouth shut. A sales person making these types of claims can be disregarded on the grounds that a sales person may not have the authority to bind the company. But if the CEO says the same things, customers who purchase cars based on the CEO's representations can definitely sue the company for failure to deliver promised goods.
- manyoso 8y ago
  Then all Musk needs to do is not allow Tesla to "come to find" out that LIDAR is necessary before the technology has advanced to such a degree that they can retrofit the Model X and to do so when the cost has come down sufficiently to afford it. Which is what he's currently doing. When they do finally admit that LIDAR is necessary, Elon will play the "no body could have foreseen this situation and we were operating under the best knowledge at the time" card. He's bullshit all the way down.

ageofwant 8y ago

LIDAR is not magic. You can get full situational awareness with boring old video these days. LIDAR was just easier to characterize back in the day before gigahertz ASIC AD video processors.

gamblor956 8y ago
LIDAR may be more expensive, but it has one huge advantage: it can identify stationary objects in 3D space. For a visual processing system to accomplish the same task, it must first: identify objects in a frame. Identify objects in the next frame. Identify objects in the images taken from the other cameras. Compare the objects, taking into account positional differences arising from the speed of the vehicle, and triangulate their positions relative to the vehicle. This is certainly doable (Microsoft Photosynth has been around for at least a decade), but each one of these tasks, and especially the last task, requires more processing power than Tesla has put into its vehicles.
- todd8 8y ago
  Interestingly, it can be done even with a single sensor. We can map object’s 3D positions with just one eye. The brain uses the relative motion of various object in the scene due to forward motion induced parallax and other clues such as object size. It’s possible to drive with one eye covered, but might as well use multiple sensors if available. See “Depth Perception” at [1]. [1] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depth_perception https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Depth_perception
  - orbital-decay 8y ago
    Motion is not required either. There's a reason for a shallow DoF in big photographic lenses/sensors. Bokeh can be represented as a processed depth map.
  - Symmetry 8y ago
    Your brain is using something in the ballpark of a petaflop of computing power to do that sort of incredible stuff.