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The Xiaomi M365 scooters everyone is using were released Dec 15th, 2016. Bird started working on rigging them for rentals less than 6 months later and launched

by dpiers 8y ago

The Xiaomi M365 scooters everyone is using were released Dec 15th, 2016. Bird started working on rigging them for rentals less than 6 months later and launched in August 2017. If you have been following the developments in personal electric transportation, the timing is hardly random. The M365 was one of the first scooters that had the range and speed to be viable for rentals. The good idea was not low hanging, it was just taken by good founders before you realized it was good.

microdrum 8y ago
"Good founders" Um. I'll take the founders who designed and engineered the actual technology (i.e. the scooter, not the app). They will be the winners in the long run. Show me a great lithium/PV/manufacturing/fluids/materials team and I'll invest!
- dpiers 8y ago
  Brushless DC motor and lithium battery advancements are the primary tech enabling these devices, and both are commoditized. The winners in this market will be the people who can best externalize the cost of repositioning, charging, and storing these scooters.
  - microdrum 8y ago
    There are proprietary advances in lithium and other chemistries, as well as in the charging systems. Uber can best reposition and charge scooters ofc, not bird or lime. But very unclear that it will be worthwhile to do so. There is also the price that the consumer will bear for a scooter. When it's cheaper to own one's own after 30 days, and storage is trivial (not true with cars, true with scooters), not clear there is a rental business to be had. Comparison: the UberX experience these days is terrible. Smelly cars, surly people. But popular still, bc because need it and it's the best option. Whaddya going to do? Drive yourself? That's impractical for UberX use cases. When the Bird experience is no longer novel and the scooters cause broken arms and are smeared with urine, will people still use them? Or pop $300 for their own clean ones? Or walk? Both possible for all use cases.
swyx 8y ago
didnt actually know the timeline, thanks for that.

by dpiers 8y ago

microdrum 8y ago

"Good founders" Um. I'll take the founders who designed and engineered the actual technology (i.e. the scooter, not the app). They will be the winners in the long run. Show me a great lithium/PV/manufacturing/fluids/materials team and I'll invest!

dpiers 8y ago
Brushless DC motor and lithium battery advancements are the primary tech enabling these devices, and both are commoditized. The winners in this market will be the people who can best externalize the cost of repositioning, charging, and storing these scooters.
- microdrum 8y ago
  There are proprietary advances in lithium and other chemistries, as well as in the charging systems. Uber can best reposition and charge scooters ofc, not bird or lime. But very unclear that it will be worthwhile to do so. There is also the price that the consumer will bear for a scooter. When it's cheaper to own one's own after 30 days, and storage is trivial (not true with cars, true with scooters), not clear there is a rental business to be had. Comparison: the UberX experience these days is terrible. Smelly cars, surly people. But popular still, bc because need it and it's the best option. Whaddya going to do? Drive yourself? That's impractical for UberX use cases. When the Bird experience is no longer novel and the scooters cause broken arms and are smeared with urine, will people still use them? Or pop $300 for their own clean ones? Or walk? Both possible for all use cases.

swyx 8y ago

didnt actually know the timeline, thanks for that.