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The Scooter Economy
- andrewfromx 8y agoHere here I never understand the haters. Specially if you are for green nrg!
- swyx 8y agothe fact that someone just went "hey what if we had Uber but with scooters" and it worked is the very definition of low hanging fruit. the good ideas are NOT all taken. (am being facetious, but only somewhat)
- dpiers 8y agoThe Xiaomi M365 scooters everyone is using were released Dec 15th, 2016. Bird started working on rigging them for rentals less than 6 months later and launched in August 2017. If you have been following the developments in personal electric transportation, the timing is hardly random. The M365 was one of the first scooters that had the range and speed to be viable for rentals. The good idea was not low hanging, it was just taken by good founders before you realized it was good.
- microdrum 8y ago"Good founders" Um. I'll take the founders who designed and engineered the actual technology (i.e. the scooter, not the app). They will be the winners in the long run. Show me a great lithium/PV/manufacturing/fluids/materials team and I'll invest!
- dpiers 8y agoBrushless DC motor and lithium battery advancements are the primary tech enabling these devices, and both are commoditized. The winners in this market will be the people who can best externalize the cost of repositioning, charging, and storing these scooters.
- microdrum 8y agoThere are proprietary advances in lithium and other chemistries, as well as in the charging systems. Uber can best reposition and charge scooters ofc, not bird or lime. But very unclear that it will be worthwhile to do so. There is also the price that the consumer will bear for a scooter. When it's cheaper to own one's own after 30 days, and storage is trivial (not true with cars, true with scooters), not clear there is a rental business to be had. Comparison: the UberX experience these days is terrible. Smelly cars, surly people. But popular still, bc because need it and it's the best option. Whaddya going to do? Drive yourself? That's impractical for UberX use cases. When the Bird experience is no longer novel and the scooters cause broken arms and are smeared with urine, will people still use them? Or pop $300 for their own clean ones? Or walk? Both possible for all use cases.
- swyx 8y agodidnt actually know the timeline, thanks for that.
- imbusy111 8y agoThat particular scooter is only $500 + tax from Amazon (or was just weeks ago, it's sold out at the moment, but you have many other options). If you like it, just buy it and it will pay off within months. It is not like a car where the upfront costs are substantial. I heard that it is even $210 at wholesale prices if you can ship it from China and there is not even an import tax. Of course the author was just visiting SF and only needed it temporarily - in that case I understand the need for a rental option, but you should be able to rent it for a whole week for little cost. I am an owner of an electric scooter myself, but I do not enjoy the shared scooters lying around everywhere on the streets like trash. It is understandable to me why the numbers would be limited by the city.
- subpixel 8y agoAn issue is where/how to park your own scooter. It's a good deal larger (and dirtier) than many offices will allow to be brought in an leaned against your desk. And there is no place to lock your $700 scooter on the street.
- imbusy111 8y agoI have never had anyone deny access to my scooter inside. It is very compact. I keep it under my desk.
- dilap 8y agothis hardly seems fair, sonce everyone gets to leave their cars lying around everywhere. also, believe me when i tell you that for SF at least, scooters are the least of your aesthetic concerns on the streets and sidewalks...
- thinkmassive 8y agoIf you leave a car “laying around” in a spot not designated for parking a car then it’s likely to be towed, or at least ticketed. This works because the car usually has a registered owner who wants it back.
- dilap 8y agoa weird side-effect of living in SF is cities in movies start to look fake: where is all the feces and shattered glass and tent cities? i've always assumed the city govt was just disfunctional, but the speed with which they removed the menace of convenient, ecofriendly scooters makes me wonder if they're actually malevolent, somehow.
- laughinghan 8y agoHave you considered the possibility that the scooters are genuinely unpopular? It may only be a minor inconvenience for you or I to walk over them when strewn all over the sidewalk, but for someone in a wheelchair, they can be a serious obstacle to getting from one place to another.
- aeneasmackenzie 8y agoAre the feces, shattered glass, and tent cities only a minor inconvenience to this person in a wheelchair?
- heckanoobs 8y agoJust like SF has microclimates for weather it also has them for compartmentalizing the city's various problems. Fidi and east cut (or whatever realtors are calling it now) don't have feces, needle, and tent problems. It does have scooter litter problems. The city population swells 2x every work day and the majority of those workers interact with scooters parked haphazardly. If it's one thing entitled early adopters and east bay commuters have in common, it's that they DGAF about the sense of community in SF. So they park these things in the most selfish ways possible. I swear some of them have to be doing it on purpose. I've seen them blocking turn styles at embarcadero station before. I had a friend visiting from out of state and usually the first criticism of SF I hear is something about homelessness as we pass through the 'loin. But this time we were by embarcadero and it was "did a scooter gang of children all get raptured at once?"
- laughinghan 8y agoI’m confused by your dismissive tone, the answers to this seem like common sense. No, feces and shattered glass are not a major impediment; wheelchair tires can usually go over them, and additionally, area taken up by individual instances of feces on the street is measured in square inches, so wheelchairs can typically be navigated such that the wheels avoid touching them. Yes, tent cities are also an impediment, which is why the city actively works to get rid of them, even implementing short-term solutions that do no good and possibly harm in the long run like having the police and community workers forcibly clear them. Not to mention the literal hundreds of millions of dollars a year the city spends on homeless programs, which is many, many orders of magnitude more than they’ve spent on any kind of regulation of scooters.
- md2be 8y agoI’m officially a “bird” hunter. Get this bird crap off the sidewalks. For those opposed like I, crap on these scooters like they crap on you
- drcode 8y agoFor someone living in a town that is still scooter-free at the moment (Chicago) can someone explain to me: 1. Wouldn't it be a great business for thieves to specialize in stealing these and finding out a way to fence them in large quantities? 2. How can it be economical to pay people to lug these to their homes and charge them on a regular basis? 3. With tires that small, and with many riders riding them that are not experienced with skateboarding and other small-tired vehicles (which can get viciously trapped in crevasses/potholes while driving full speed) isn't the risk of injury pretty high, far higher than a bicycle? 4. What is the reliability like on these things? It seems like it would be a device with pretty frequent electrical problems and loose connections. I'm mostly a fan of the idea BTW, I just am unclear of the economics...
- sschueller 8y agoOne thing I can say is that the scotters from Lime around Zürich appear to be in quite bad shape for only being on the streets for a few weeks now.
- CaptainZapp 8y agoI wondered about them, since it's illegal in Switzerland to ride anything motorized on a pavement (also goes for hover boards, Segway's and such). While the cops will hardly send in a SWAT team to nab offenders there's a very real risk, in that insurers will not pay if you're involved in an accident.
- sschueller 8y agoI was wondering that myself so I checked. It turns out scotters with a handle bars are legal but with restrictions. - they must ride where bikes go. This means they must use bike paths if available and stay of the sidewalk - Users must be 16 or older. Under 16 but over 14 can use them but must have a Mofa license. - max speed must be under 20km/h - helmets are not required. I have however only ever seen people using them on the sidewalk :/
- runako 8y ago
- HillaryBriss 8y agoIn OP's claim that there's a meaningful moat around a Scooter company (or a ride-sharing company), this sentence is used as support: Riders will, all things being equal, use one service habitually And, I'm wondering if this is really true. It hasn't been for me in the ride-sharing industry. I switch back and forth between services.
- morogop 8y agoThe investors hope it's true, because otherwise they're just pissing away money creating a low-profit commodity service.
- wffurr 8y agoOr to flesh that out a bit with more context from the article, I think it's likely you're a "typical tech first-adopter" since you're commenting on Hacker News: >> your typical tech first-adopter may have no problem checking multiple apps to catch a quick ride, but I suspect most riders would prefer to use the same app they already have on their phone. Then again I'm more in the latter case. I only use Lyft because a) it's not Uber and b) I already installed it and set it up on my phone.
- conductr 8y agoIt goes both ways, I've only ever installed and used one service. Uber got me first and I see no reason to even deal with the inconvenience of downloading the Lyft app; although I have heard great things about Lyft and maybe it's cheaper/faster at times. It requires a small amount of effort on my part that I don't care to make
- DrScump 8y agoDid you look at the privileges you gave the Uber app when you installed it on the phone?
- gandreani 8y agoI like today's article. I've been subscribed for a couple of months now (volun-told at work) and a lot of the latest articles had the author trying to sell the "Aggregation Theory" a bit too much. I found myself skipping large parts of the articles because they were just re-iterating the theory, applied to current events. It's a shame cause I really like the analysis provided otherwise. Specially when numbers are brought in like today with the parking spaces.
- neves 8y agoWhat is the Aggregation Theory and how it is related to scooters?
- gandreani 8y agoSorry, my comment was aimed at other frequent stratechery readers. Here's a page listing all the relevant articles on it https://stratechery.com/concepts/ https://stratechery.com/concepts/
- swyx 8y agoas a onetime subscriber i'd say ben has nothing to sell or prove anymore with regards to his theory. he just truly honestly sees the world through Aggregation a lot of the time. he's clearly right. but i agree its more interesting when he starts talking about new ideas and biz models.
- gandreani 8y ago> as a onetime subscriber i'd say ben has nothing to sell or prove anymore with regards to his theory. he just truly honestly sees the world through Aggregation a lot of the time I agree! I probably shouldn't have used the word "sell". Maybe "apply" works better
- microdrum 8y agoBecause the scooters are commodities and extremely cheap, it's hard to see the economics of these companies as strong, contrary to Ben's assertion. Much of the demand comes from the novelty factor. (Cars are boring, especially the Prius, yet Uber was a winner from day one!) When the novelty factor wears off, consumers will "get real" about their last-mile transpo options, and either there will be so many scooter services that the price is $0.25 + $0.50/min (Bird economics broken) OR you will buy your own scooter to have forever for $300 (Bird economics broken).
- RandallBrown 8y agoHaving your own scooter is a crappy option. Then I have to store it (both at home and at my destination), maintain it, and charge it. Right now the scooter businesses handling all of that is the only reason I would ever take a scooter somewhere. If there are multiple services, likely one of them can hang on long enough to take over the market as the others fail. If not, someone else can start a new one when all others fail and have gotten tired of the idea.
- themark 8y agoThe police are enforcing the helmet law in San Diego (300 dollar ticket). I think the convenience factor is diminished when you are forced to lug around a helmet.
- pg_bot 8y agoHow much does it cost to buy a comparable electric scooter? I just don't see how any of these rental scooter companies survive due to the capital and storage costs being so much lower than a car.
- shanev 8y agoThey retail for around $500. But that’s not the point. You can get them from and store them anywhere. You pay for the convenience of not lugging one around. You have the flexibility of walking between destinations, not always having to use the scooter.
- jonknee 8y agoBut then you have to carry a scooter around with you and remember to charge it. It seems way more useful to just have one that is charged always available. Especially at the price point.
- pg_bot 8y agoIsn't the point of the scooter to carry you around ;) Remembering to charge isn't a big deal. I do it for my phone and my car. I would buy a second charger and keep it at work to keep down on the hassle. A lot of offices have bike storage, why not scooters?
- maherbeg 8y agoYou can imagine a user doing both. Daily commutes get handled by the scooter you own. Evening / Weekend events get handled by the rentals when you don't want to lug it around all day. There's definitely space for both. (Think car owners that commute but use Uber/Lyft to go out drinking)
- neves 8y agoI wasn't understanding anything. It looks like the meaning of the word "scooter" has changed. For all the non-americans here, you can see photos of scooters: https://www.google.com/search?q=scooter&client=firefox-b-ab&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiB6aTF8MvbAhWHuFMKHTRYCWgQsAQIkwE&biw=1384&bih=753 https://www.google.com/search?q=scooter&client=firefox-b-ab&... You'll see the usual thing, that looks like a motorcycle, and the new one, which you can put below your desk.
- abakker 8y agoFor Americans, there have been effectively 2 meanings of scooter for a long time. There have been kick scooters back to the 80s at least, and in the late 90s to 2000s there was an explosion of razor scooters. The “small motorcycle” is also called a scooter, but at least in my own circles I hear people call those by the name “Vespa” (a common name brand for motor scooters) a lot more often.
- TwiztidK 8y agoMaybe just an American thing, but we kind use the term for both but usually call the larger ones "mopeds". If there was a change, I don't think it was too recent either as I had electric (similar to the Bird scooters, but much larger) and manual "scooters" in the late-90's/early-00's.
- stevehawk 8y agowell the problem there is that a moped is part bicycle.
- ertand 8y agoI was hoping to get a more in-depth analysis of the 2-sided network effects of the scooter space. I'm having a hard time understanding the defensibility of these companies against each other. Habit doesn't seem to be enough to win the market. Exclusive contracts or leveraging regulations could be options but they don't feel strong enough either. If it's not a winner takes all market and multiple players can coexist at the same time, then I don't understand the investment decision from the VC firms to value them so high so early. It feels like Uber/Lyft can easily get into this market and provide a better experience overall.
- notadoc 8y ago"The Scooter Rental Economy" is more accurate, I don't think a single scooter company actually sells them.
- johnvega 8y agoI rode bird scooters many times and I'm in favor of electric scooters succeeding. Yesterday, saw a couple of bird scooters that were not properly placed, just lying on the ground not using the kickstand. Just to do my small part, I fixed them up by using the kickstand and making sure they are least obstacle to foot traffic and wheelchairs. It only took less than 60 seconds. For those in favor, we can all chip in.
- the_watcher 8y agoIn what alternative reality is San Francisco "car-friendly"? I get that the public transit isn't great, but that doesn't make a city where reserved spots run upwards of $400 a month and street parking involves constantly moving your car out of seemingly permanent temporary construction zones and dodging getting towed (and having your car damaged, etc) "car-friendly"
- jamisteven 8y agoI used one the other night on the pedestrian bridge in Nashville, I had walked to the other side and realized I had forgot my wallet in my car, what would have been a 10min seriously boring walk turned into an awesome scooter-sesh that gave me the joy of a 10 year old. I dont see the scooters being littered everywhere as a problem though, more annoying is people walking while texting, actual trash-litter etc. Big gov will always want to regulate things they dont understand.