Those might certainly be factors, but they aren't really relevant for my argument that someone with a recognizable degree has a higher probability of capturing

Those might certainly be factors, but they aren't really relevant for my argument that someone with a recognizable degree has a higher probability of capturing more of their earning potential. Someone without a degree even with the same ambition and focus will face the burden of other things. Say you join a large tech company, gets a fair amount of stock, enjoy the stock increase and as a result make an additional $100k. That is not an unlikely scenario even in the early stages of a career for someone with a recognizable degree. If you don't have a degree it is certainly possible to do the same thing, it just isn't probable. For every step where you have to be aware of something, understand it and make a decision the probability of getting it right decreases. And the same is true for housing, career, startups and even relationships. It doesn't make sense to say that you can succeed if certain things happen. Because it is the if that is the challenge.