8 ms·

Not All Facts Are Equal

lando2319 8y ago
The facts that support one's narrative are the most important. Mainstream media 101
- tux1968 8y ago
  Bret Weinstein talked about his direct experience with that in a recent appearance in Vancouver. How left-leaning and right-leaning publications reported his story differently and to varying degrees of accuracy. He suggests it's exactly because of the underlying narrative of each side. https://youtu.be/bz0oxIZ3xIg?t=311 https://youtu.be/bz0oxIZ3xIg?t=311
- remyrylan 8y ago
  I agree that all mainstream media, no matter if it's on the right, the left, center, government owned or not -- it's all full of bias to push the narrative each organization cares about. Maybe 5% of the news reported is worth paying attention to, the rest may as well be garbage.
  - fvdessen 8y ago
    They put the narrative people want to read about. Have you seen what's on the clickbaity ads ? That's what people click on ! Most people want garbage.
    - remyrylan 8y ago
      Very true. I internally weep for humanity every time I use a browser without ad block.
  - lamename 8y ago
    And often lacks nuance or historical context. I can't blame people for wanting to avoid complexity, that's why headlines exist, but there will always be information left out. Even from more honest reporting. I understand why but it still saddens me.
- dang 8y ago
  Maybe so, but please don't post unsubstantive comments here. Especially not generic ones on ideological topics. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
hliyan 8y ago
This part is true: "In practice, this data-driven approach never worked and campaigns that relied on it, like Hillary Clinton’s presidential bid in 2016, have usually ended in failure." I think that a statistically significant set of detailed case studies is superior to a massive mountain of data where each data point is just an approximation of what it is supposed to measure (e.g. answers to a handful of questions, or some metric). Perhaps anecdotes, in large enough numbers, are data.
- flatline 8y ago
  > Perhaps anecdotes, in large enough numbers, are data. This was actually the original gist of that famous quote! http://blog.revolutionanalytics.com/2011/04/the-plural-of-anecdote-is-data-after-all.html http://blog.revolutionanalytics.com/2011/04/the-plural-of-an...
- digi_owl 8y ago
  The Clinton campaign had to so many sins that i suspect being data driven was the least of its problems.
  - noobermin 8y ago
    In many ways being too data driven whilst disregarding basic political wisdom (like actually campaigning in swing states) was more of a downfall.
    - specialist 8y ago
      No. HRC's campaign knew MI, MN, PA would be close. They just didn't factor in the wide spread, targeted voter disenfranchisement. For instance, ~200k voters in WI were blocked, concentrated in urban areas like Milwaukee.
  - specialist 8y ago
    HRC's greatest sins, why she lost, in rank order, are the electoral college, the 2m disenfranchised voters, not being a racist, not being given $3b in earned media (free advertising), and not being Putin's toady. PS- I'm not forgetting Comey's sabotage. I just don't know where the 2.5% swing it caused fits into this list. Probably #4.
whatshisface 8y ago
This confusion is rampant in the business world. Some people prefer to bamboozle and be bamboozled by case studies, some people prefer to bamboozle and be bamboozled by pie charts. Powerpoint is a common medium for both. However, despite their differences, they share their audience - people who can't do a good analysis and have no idea what one would look like. Inevitably, if this realization ever sinks in it will have to be worded in a way that doesn't make it sound like there's anything wrong with the people who don't know what they're doing. Now that journalists have started to phrase it in a way that makes it sound like the "facts," are at fault, I think it has a good chance of becoming accepted.
- mAEStro-paNDa 8y ago
  This is an excellent point. Although, I think as far as (most) journalism goes, it's less about "facts" in general than it is defending an authority/legitimacy that was previously accepted (generally) but is now being put into question. It seems the author is pointing out how the tendencies that lead people to consider something as "fact" haven't changed despite the mechanism of communication improving in capability/efficiency.
BobbyVsTheDevil 8y ago
The author has a long track record of being one of the most careful and factual journalists in the English-speaking world. His reporting on the wars in the Middle East has been consistently some of the most informative, and unlike most of his colleagues he has put his body on the line by being physically present there. So an article like the OP is more worth listening to than it might seem.
- zafka 8y ago
  I always read carefully when I see this authors byline. If he did not quite often tell uncomfortable truths, he would probably be much more well known. As it is, he does not make the mainstream media very often.
RyanZAG 8y ago
Obligatory relevant xkcd: https://xkcd.com/882/ https://xkcd.com/882/ And if you think this only applies to statistics, you need to think about the problem being described here a bit more.
DoreenMichele 8y ago
I think the headline is great, the article not so much. I learned about the inequality of facts while processing accident claims. Accident claims are a little like a court case where a single judge determines a verdict. That verdict determines whether or not a check is cut to cover the claim. In any claim, you will see strong facts, weak facts, and even red flags that can indicate it is fraudulent. With reading it, you need to make one of four decisions: 1. Pay the claim. 2. Deny the claim. 3. Request more information. 4. Refer to the fraud department for review. Any given claim can have indicators to pay and contradictory indicators to deny. The decision to pay or deny hinges not only on how many such indicators there are, but on the strength of each of them. Kind of like DNA evidence will outweigh hearsay in a court case. Some facts are stronger than others. This is true even if you take out the element of politics.
deleted 8y ago
[deleted]
tqi 8y ago
I think the title of this piece is right (if a bit banal and obvious), but the op-ed is rambling and not at all convincing.
brobdingnagians 8y ago
I feel like literature can often have this problem too; the information density has become less thoughtful since there is so much data to quote and people spend less time just sitting and thinking. It is easy to quote data; it is much harder and more time consuming to connect the data yourself and come up with something meaningful to guide your life. "Where is the wisdom we have lost in knowledge? Where is the knowledge we have lost in information?" - TS Eliot
Bucephalus355 8y ago
FYI, the author, Patrick Cockburn, has a last name pronounced “co-burn”.

The facts that support one's narrative are the most important. Mainstream media 101

tux1968 8y ago
Bret Weinstein talked about his direct experience with that in a recent appearance in Vancouver. How left-leaning and right-leaning publications reported his story differently and to varying degrees of accuracy. He suggests it's exactly because of the underlying narrative of each side. https://youtu.be/bz0oxIZ3xIg?t=311 https://youtu.be/bz0oxIZ3xIg?t=311
remyrylan 8y ago
I agree that all mainstream media, no matter if it's on the right, the left, center, government owned or not -- it's all full of bias to push the narrative each organization cares about. Maybe 5% of the news reported is worth paying attention to, the rest may as well be garbage.
- fvdessen 8y ago
  They put the narrative people want to read about. Have you seen what's on the clickbaity ads ? That's what people click on ! Most people want garbage.
  - remyrylan 8y ago
    Very true. I internally weep for humanity every time I use a browser without ad block.
- lamename 8y ago
  And often lacks nuance or historical context. I can't blame people for wanting to avoid complexity, that's why headlines exist, but there will always be information left out. Even from more honest reporting. I understand why but it still saddens me.
dang 8y ago
Maybe so, but please don't post unsubstantive comments here. Especially not generic ones on ideological topics. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

This part is true: "In practice, this data-driven approach never worked and campaigns that relied on it, like Hillary Clinton’s presidential bid in 2016, have usually ended in failure." I think that a statistically significant set of detailed case studies is superior to a massive mountain of data where each data point is just an approximation of what it is supposed to measure (e.g. answers to a handful of questions, or some metric). Perhaps anecdotes, in large enough numbers, are data.

flatline 8y ago
> Perhaps anecdotes, in large enough numbers, are data. This was actually the original gist of that famous quote! http://blog.revolutionanalytics.com/2011/04/the-plural-of-anecdote-is-data-after-all.html http://blog.revolutionanalytics.com/2011/04/the-plural-of-an...
digi_owl 8y ago
The Clinton campaign had to so many sins that i suspect being data driven was the least of its problems.
- noobermin 8y ago
  In many ways being too data driven whilst disregarding basic political wisdom (like actually campaigning in swing states) was more of a downfall.
  - specialist 8y ago
    No. HRC's campaign knew MI, MN, PA would be close. They just didn't factor in the wide spread, targeted voter disenfranchisement. For instance, ~200k voters in WI were blocked, concentrated in urban areas like Milwaukee.
- specialist 8y ago
  HRC's greatest sins, why she lost, in rank order, are the electoral college, the 2m disenfranchised voters, not being a racist, not being given $3b in earned media (free advertising), and not being Putin's toady. PS- I'm not forgetting Comey's sabotage. I just don't know where the 2.5% swing it caused fits into this list. Probably #4.

whatshisface 8y ago

This confusion is rampant in the business world. Some people prefer to bamboozle and be bamboozled by case studies, some people prefer to bamboozle and be bamboozled by pie charts. Powerpoint is a common medium for both. However, despite their differences, they share their audience - people who can't do a good analysis and have no idea what one would look like. Inevitably, if this realization ever sinks in it will have to be worded in a way that doesn't make it sound like there's anything wrong with the people who don't know what they're doing. Now that journalists have started to phrase it in a way that makes it sound like the "facts," are at fault, I think it has a good chance of becoming accepted.

mAEStro-paNDa 8y ago
This is an excellent point. Although, I think as far as (most) journalism goes, it's less about "facts" in general than it is defending an authority/legitimacy that was previously accepted (generally) but is now being put into question. It seems the author is pointing out how the tendencies that lead people to consider something as "fact" haven't changed despite the mechanism of communication improving in capability/efficiency.

BobbyVsTheDevil 8y ago

The author has a long track record of being one of the most careful and factual journalists in the English-speaking world. His reporting on the wars in the Middle East has been consistently some of the most informative, and unlike most of his colleagues he has put his body on the line by being physically present there. So an article like the OP is more worth listening to than it might seem.

zafka 8y ago
I always read carefully when I see this authors byline. If he did not quite often tell uncomfortable truths, he would probably be much more well known. As it is, he does not make the mainstream media very often.

RyanZAG 8y ago

Obligatory relevant xkcd: https://xkcd.com/882/ https://xkcd.com/882/ And if you think this only applies to statistics, you need to think about the problem being described here a bit more.

DoreenMichele 8y ago

I think the headline is great, the article not so much. I learned about the inequality of facts while processing accident claims. Accident claims are a little like a court case where a single judge determines a verdict. That verdict determines whether or not a check is cut to cover the claim. In any claim, you will see strong facts, weak facts, and even red flags that can indicate it is fraudulent. With reading it, you need to make one of four decisions: 1. Pay the claim. 2. Deny the claim. 3. Request more information. 4. Refer to the fraud department for review. Any given claim can have indicators to pay and contradictory indicators to deny. The decision to pay or deny hinges not only on how many such indicators there are, but on the strength of each of them. Kind of like DNA evidence will outweigh hearsay in a court case. Some facts are stronger than others. This is true even if you take out the element of politics.

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

tqi 8y ago

I think the title of this piece is right (if a bit banal and obvious), but the op-ed is rambling and not at all convincing.

brobdingnagians 8y ago

I feel like literature can often have this problem too; the information density has become less thoughtful since there is so much data to quote and people spend less time just sitting and thinking. It is easy to quote data; it is much harder and more time consuming to connect the data yourself and come up with something meaningful to guide your life. "Where is the wisdom we have lost in knowledge? Where is the knowledge we have lost in information?" - TS Eliot

Bucephalus355 8y ago

FYI, the author, Patrick Cockburn, has a last name pronounced “co-burn”.