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Can people in finance and analysts start using stagger charts[0], please? Making predictions and not keeping score of predictions is useless. That's exactly wha
by Jugurtha 8y ago
Can people in finance and analysts start using stagger charts[0], please? Making predictions and not keeping score of predictions is useless. That's exactly what tarot readers do.
In the left column the months (or years or days) you make the predictions in. Top months are the months you're making the predictions for. The trace (R) is the actual real value (forecast of January in January, i.e: you have the number).
So:
The forecast for October made in January is 22.
The forecast for October made in June is 13.
The forecast for October made in September is 42.
This way, we can track all forecasts and track errors. The chart has memory. The chart cuts through bullshit.
J F M A M J J A S O N D
J R 12 13 14 53 12 21 34 19 20 22 19
F - R 14 13 51 10 20 30 17 22 24 15
M - - R 51 11 27 35 19 20 21 19 12
A - - - R 55 17 20 32 18 21 28 19
M - - - - R 73 42 11 34 17 23 12
J - - - - - R 61 21 67 13 22 82
J - - - - - - R 42 11 34 17 23
A - - - - - - - R 42 11 34 17
S - - - - - - - - R 42 11 34
O - - - - - - - - - R 42 11
N - - - - - - - - - - R 12
D - - - - - - - - - - - R
[0]: High Output Management - Andrew Grove
- Jugurtha 8y agoThe forecast for October made in January is 20. Sorry.
- tim333 8y ago> Making predictions and not keeping score of predictions is useless. Perhaps but I think you may misunderstand how these things work. "Nomura Instinet advising clients that the electric car maker's shares could rally 42 percent over the next year." is a sales pitch for people to become clients of Nomura and trade stuff. They have no interest in any one keeping score of their predictions. It's like "England may win the FA cup, place your bets with Ladbrokes" - not really about testability.