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The reasons it works out are subtle: (a) the host must know what's behind the doors, (b)the host must always open a door to a goat. Most people fail to keep in
by dnaquin 18y ago
The reasons it works out are subtle: (a) the host must know what's behind the doors, (b)the host must always open a door to a goat.
Most people fail to keep into account one of those assumptions. In fact most tellings of the problem fail to specify and just implicitly assume one. This leads to most confusion.
I think the telling in the movie was pretty clear though.
- dfranke 18y agoThe assumption that generally fails to get communicated is that the host will always give you an option to switch. You can only do proper statistical analysis of the situation if know what the host will do under any given set of conditions. Otherwise you have to consider the possibility that you'll have the option of switching iff your first choice was the correct one -- in which case you obviously should never switch.
- dnaquin 18y agoRight. I missed one.