5 ms·

The company itself seems to be in a downward spiral getting hit from multiple sides. To me it's unclear if they'll make it.

toomuchtodo 8y ago
Can you provide a citation? If they make their 5k/week production target by the end of this month (which it looks like they will), they’re on their way to being cash flow positive, and also not needing another capital raise in the near term. Challenges for sure, but “downward spiral”? Hyperbole.
- Judgmentality 8y ago
  I am not sure why you think it's likely they'll hit 5k/week by the end of the month, considering Musk has been promising that for the better part of a year now. I admittedly do not know enough about the financials to know if that will truly make them cash flow positive, but even if it does they still have to pay back over $1 billion in debt at the beginning of 2019. Tesla is going to need to raise more money in less than a year (probably less than 6 months). If you truly don't believe that, I will happily take a bet.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
  - toomuchtodo 8y ago
    Based on Musk’s track record, he delivers. Late? Sure. But always delivers. Disclaimer: TSLA investor with extremely high limit order set in order to prevent my shares from being lent to short sellers
    - nopriorarrests 8y ago
      Do you think he will deliver on FSD eventually being available on already sold model 3's?
      - toomuchtodo 8y ago
        If FSD is possible at all, yes.
        nopriorarrests 8y ago
        Hmm. I can easily see the case of FSD being possible with (supposedly very expensive) LIDAR-enabled Waymo hardware stack, but out of reach with hardware that goes into Tesla model 3. That what makes this particlar Musk promise so interesting and so challenging. It's too late to change the price or hardware set. He has to deliver with software-only solution...
        toomuchtodo 8y ago
        Not necessarily. Assume that LIDAR becomes a requirement in the future, while the cost of LIDAR is decreasing very rapidly (a quick Google search will confirm this). The retrofit then becomes much cheaper in the future vs today. It’s similar to how renewable projects are being bid on and sold today, with the price of the power being determined by what the equipment will cost several years in the future when it’s installed.
        nopriorarrests 8y ago
        Respectfully disagree. While LIDAR price is going down, retroffitting all FSD-enabled cars won't be cheap. It's like a recall, but instead of fixing or changing some part, you need to install new part, do all the wiring (which may include a lot of disassembling and assembling again) and test it. I can easily see 10-20 hours of human labor per car (plus cost of LIDAR itself, of course)
    - tomp 8y ago
      Why don’t you want to lend to short sellers?
      - toomuchtodo 8y ago
        Mission over economic/market efficiency. Short sellers are out only to profit, Tesla needs to profit to survive, but is out to electrify transportation. Make vultures suffer. https://www.newyorker.com/cartoon/a16995 https://www.newyorker.com/cartoon/a16995
        ptsch 8y ago
        This is a cult like speech. Its management has fiduciary duty to its investors to do their best to give them return. It’s not a non profit foundation.
        deleted 8y ago
        [deleted]
        toomuchtodo 8y ago
        This subject comes up frequently on HN, but Tesla does not need to maximize their profits to ensure shareholder fiduciary requirements are met. I invest because it’s a cause that matters to me.
        ptsch 8y ago
        So you think people who work hard for Tesla do not want/expect to make money on their stock options? It’s literally a part of compensation package.
        toomuchtodo 8y ago
        Employee compensation is valuable consideration of course. I prefer to not enable short sellers from profiting off of Tesla’s challenges, if that wasn’t clear. Sidenote: Tesla employees with stock comp are going to do very well when a short squeeze drives the stock price up. And they deserve that comp.
    - Judgmentality 8y ago
      Tesla cars being sold with 'full self-driving capable hardware' will NEVER reach level 4 autonomy. If you can create a bet around this with reasonable terms (so not waiting 50+ years because 'never' is a long time) I will put my life-savings into it.
    - ptsch 8y ago
      How does high limit order prevents your shares from being lent out?
      - toomuchtodo 8y ago
        It ties the shares up as an open order. https://www.quora.com/Is-it-true-that-putting-a-high-limit-sell-order-will-prevent-shorts-from-borrowing-your-shares https://www.quora.com/Is-it-true-that-putting-a-high-limit-s...
        ptsch 8y ago
        This link does not provide evidence that it would prevent broker from lending out your shares. This “lock” is only placed internally in the broker’s internal system, there is nothing preventing the broker from lending out your share anyway. If they can’t get your shares back in time before your order triggers then they would just compensate you. Where did you get this idea from, anyway?
        toomuchtodo 8y ago
        I confirmed it with my broker. They answer any questions I might have pretty quickly.
    - marketgod 8y ago
      You should really buy lottery options on TSLA if you are going that long and dedicated. You would make millions easily. Look for TSLA to break $330 and it is going to make a move.
      - deleted 8y ago
        [deleted]
- akhatri_aus 8y ago
  > and also not needing another capital raise in the near term. It's very probably they need to raise cash for their foray into China. > If they make their 5k/week production target by the end of this month How many months/years is that behind schedule? Even Twitter will eventually be profitable.

toomuchtodo 8y ago

Can you provide a citation? If they make their 5k/week production target by the end of this month (which it looks like they will), they’re on their way to being cash flow positive, and also not needing another capital raise in the near term. Challenges for sure, but “downward spiral”? Hyperbole.

Judgmentality 8y ago
I am not sure why you think it's likely they'll hit 5k/week by the end of the month, considering Musk has been promising that for the better part of a year now. I admittedly do not know enough about the financials to know if that will truly make them cash flow positive, but even if it does they still have to pay back over $1 billion in debt at the beginning of 2019. Tesla is going to need to raise more money in less than a year (probably less than 6 months). If you truly don't believe that, I will happily take a bet.
- deleted 8y ago
  [deleted]
- toomuchtodo 8y ago
  Based on Musk’s track record, he delivers. Late? Sure. But always delivers. Disclaimer: TSLA investor with extremely high limit order set in order to prevent my shares from being lent to short sellers
  - nopriorarrests 8y ago
    Do you think he will deliver on FSD eventually being available on already sold model 3's?
    - toomuchtodo 8y ago
      If FSD is possible at all, yes.
      - nopriorarrests 8y ago
        Hmm. I can easily see the case of FSD being possible with (supposedly very expensive) LIDAR-enabled Waymo hardware stack, but out of reach with hardware that goes into Tesla model 3. That what makes this particlar Musk promise so interesting and so challenging. It's too late to change the price or hardware set. He has to deliver with software-only solution...
        toomuchtodo 8y ago
        Not necessarily. Assume that LIDAR becomes a requirement in the future, while the cost of LIDAR is decreasing very rapidly (a quick Google search will confirm this). The retrofit then becomes much cheaper in the future vs today. It’s similar to how renewable projects are being bid on and sold today, with the price of the power being determined by what the equipment will cost several years in the future when it’s installed.
        nopriorarrests 8y ago
        Respectfully disagree. While LIDAR price is going down, retroffitting all FSD-enabled cars won't be cheap. It's like a recall, but instead of fixing or changing some part, you need to install new part, do all the wiring (which may include a lot of disassembling and assembling again) and test it. I can easily see 10-20 hours of human labor per car (plus cost of LIDAR itself, of course)
  - tomp 8y ago
    Why don’t you want to lend to short sellers?
    - toomuchtodo 8y ago
      Mission over economic/market efficiency. Short sellers are out only to profit, Tesla needs to profit to survive, but is out to electrify transportation. Make vultures suffer. https://www.newyorker.com/cartoon/a16995 https://www.newyorker.com/cartoon/a16995
      - ptsch 8y ago
        This is a cult like speech. Its management has fiduciary duty to its investors to do their best to give them return. It’s not a non profit foundation.
        deleted 8y ago
        [deleted]
        toomuchtodo 8y ago
        This subject comes up frequently on HN, but Tesla does not need to maximize their profits to ensure shareholder fiduciary requirements are met. I invest because it’s a cause that matters to me.
        ptsch 8y ago
        So you think people who work hard for Tesla do not want/expect to make money on their stock options? It’s literally a part of compensation package.
        toomuchtodo 8y ago
        Employee compensation is valuable consideration of course. I prefer to not enable short sellers from profiting off of Tesla’s challenges, if that wasn’t clear. Sidenote: Tesla employees with stock comp are going to do very well when a short squeeze drives the stock price up. And they deserve that comp.
  - Judgmentality 8y ago
    Tesla cars being sold with 'full self-driving capable hardware' will NEVER reach level 4 autonomy. If you can create a bet around this with reasonable terms (so not waiting 50+ years because 'never' is a long time) I will put my life-savings into it.
  - ptsch 8y ago
    How does high limit order prevents your shares from being lent out?
    - toomuchtodo 8y ago
      It ties the shares up as an open order. https://www.quora.com/Is-it-true-that-putting-a-high-limit-sell-order-will-prevent-shorts-from-borrowing-your-shares https://www.quora.com/Is-it-true-that-putting-a-high-limit-s...
      - ptsch 8y ago
        This link does not provide evidence that it would prevent broker from lending out your shares. This “lock” is only placed internally in the broker’s internal system, there is nothing preventing the broker from lending out your share anyway. If they can’t get your shares back in time before your order triggers then they would just compensate you. Where did you get this idea from, anyway?
        toomuchtodo 8y ago
        I confirmed it with my broker. They answer any questions I might have pretty quickly.
  - marketgod 8y ago
    You should really buy lottery options on TSLA if you are going that long and dedicated. You would make millions easily. Look for TSLA to break $330 and it is going to make a move.
    - deleted 8y ago
      [deleted]
akhatri_aus 8y ago
> and also not needing another capital raise in the near term. It's very probably they need to raise cash for their foray into China. > If they make their 5k/week production target by the end of this month How many months/years is that behind schedule? Even Twitter will eventually be profitable.