6 ms·

It's still in the same downward channel

by anjc 8y ago

std_throwaway 8y ago
The company itself seems to be in a downward spiral getting hit from multiple sides. To me it's unclear if they'll make it.
- toomuchtodo 8y ago
  Can you provide a citation? If they make their 5k/week production target by the end of this month (which it looks like they will), they’re on their way to being cash flow positive, and also not needing another capital raise in the near term. Challenges for sure, but “downward spiral”? Hyperbole.
  - Judgmentality 8y ago
    I am not sure why you think it's likely they'll hit 5k/week by the end of the month, considering Musk has been promising that for the better part of a year now. I admittedly do not know enough about the financials to know if that will truly make them cash flow positive, but even if it does they still have to pay back over $1 billion in debt at the beginning of 2019. Tesla is going to need to raise more money in less than a year (probably less than 6 months). If you truly don't believe that, I will happily take a bet.
    - deleted 8y ago
      [deleted]
    - toomuchtodo 8y ago
      Based on Musk’s track record, he delivers. Late? Sure. But always delivers. Disclaimer: TSLA investor with extremely high limit order set in order to prevent my shares from being lent to short sellers
      - nopriorarrests 8y ago
        Do you think he will deliver on FSD eventually being available on already sold model 3's?
        toomuchtodo 8y ago
        If FSD is possible at all, yes.
        nopriorarrests 8y ago
        Hmm. I can easily see the case of FSD being possible with (supposedly very expensive) LIDAR-enabled Waymo hardware stack, but out of reach with hardware that goes into Tesla model 3. That what makes this particlar Musk promise so interesting and so challenging. It's too late to change the price or hardware set. He has to deliver with software-only solution...
        toomuchtodo 8y ago
        Not necessarily. Assume that LIDAR becomes a requirement in the future, while the cost of LIDAR is decreasing very rapidly (a quick Google search will confirm this). The retrofit then becomes much cheaper in the future vs today. It’s similar to how renewable projects are being bid on and sold today, with the price of the power being determined by what the equipment will cost several years in the future when it’s installed.
        nopriorarrests 8y ago
        Respectfully disagree. While LIDAR price is going down, retroffitting all FSD-enabled cars won't be cheap. It's like a recall, but instead of fixing or changing some part, you need to install new part, do all the wiring (which may include a lot of disassembling and assembling again) and test it. I can easily see 10-20 hours of human labor per car (plus cost of LIDAR itself, of course)
      - tomp 8y ago
  - akhatri_aus 8y ago
    > and also not needing another capital raise in the near term. It's very probably they need to raise cash for their foray into China. > If they make their 5k/week production target by the end of this month How many months/years is that behind schedule? Even Twitter will eventually be profitable.

It's still in the same downward channel

by anjc 8y ago

It's still in the same downward channel

The company itself seems to be in a downward spiral getting hit from multiple sides. To me it's unclear if they'll make it.

toomuchtodo 8y ago
Can you provide a citation? If they make their 5k/week production target by the end of this month (which it looks like they will), they’re on their way to being cash flow positive, and also not needing another capital raise in the near term. Challenges for sure, but “downward spiral”? Hyperbole.
- Judgmentality 8y ago
  I am not sure why you think it's likely they'll hit 5k/week by the end of the month, considering Musk has been promising that for the better part of a year now. I admittedly do not know enough about the financials to know if that will truly make them cash flow positive, but even if it does they still have to pay back over $1 billion in debt at the beginning of 2019. Tesla is going to need to raise more money in less than a year (probably less than 6 months). If you truly don't believe that, I will happily take a bet.
  - deleted 8y ago
    [deleted]
  - toomuchtodo 8y ago
    Based on Musk’s track record, he delivers. Late? Sure. But always delivers. Disclaimer: TSLA investor with extremely high limit order set in order to prevent my shares from being lent to short sellers
    - nopriorarrests 8y ago
      Do you think he will deliver on FSD eventually being available on already sold model 3's?
      - toomuchtodo 8y ago
        If FSD is possible at all, yes.
        nopriorarrests 8y ago
        Hmm. I can easily see the case of FSD being possible with (supposedly very expensive) LIDAR-enabled Waymo hardware stack, but out of reach with hardware that goes into Tesla model 3. That what makes this particlar Musk promise so interesting and so challenging. It's too late to change the price or hardware set. He has to deliver with software-only solution...
        toomuchtodo 8y ago
        Not necessarily. Assume that LIDAR becomes a requirement in the future, while the cost of LIDAR is decreasing very rapidly (a quick Google search will confirm this). The retrofit then becomes much cheaper in the future vs today. It’s similar to how renewable projects are being bid on and sold today, with the price of the power being determined by what the equipment will cost several years in the future when it’s installed.
        nopriorarrests 8y ago
        Respectfully disagree. While LIDAR price is going down, retroffitting all FSD-enabled cars won't be cheap. It's like a recall, but instead of fixing or changing some part, you need to install new part, do all the wiring (which may include a lot of disassembling and assembling again) and test it. I can easily see 10-20 hours of human labor per car (plus cost of LIDAR itself, of course)
    - tomp 8y ago
- akhatri_aus 8y ago
  > and also not needing another capital raise in the near term. It's very probably they need to raise cash for their foray into China. > If they make their 5k/week production target by the end of this month How many months/years is that behind schedule? Even Twitter will eventually be profitable.