4 ms·
Everything you say is true, but extremely misleading. China's nuclear posture uses what's called the "minimum means of reprisal", which means they have an extr
by jackpirate 8y ago
Everything you say is true, but extremely misleading. China's nuclear posture uses what's called the "minimum means of reprisal", which means they have an extremely small nuclear force that is incapable of completing the scenario you outline.
Let me just quote the abstract from Jeffery Lewis's phd dissertation on the topic:
Among the 5 states authorized under the NPT to possess nuclear weapons, China has the most restrained pattern of deployment: The People"s Republic of China (PRC) operationally deploys about 80 nuclear warheads exclusively for usewith land"based ballistic missiles. Its declaratory doctrine rejects the initiation of nuclear war under any circumstance. The PRC does not maintain tactical nuclear forces of any kind, and its strategic forces are kept off alert, with warheads in storage. This posture has been sustained over time and changes in threat perception, suggesting restraint is the result of choice and not expediency.
Furthermore, most of the land based ballistic missiles China has deployed are targeted at India, and not capable of hitting the mainland US.
While the dissertation was written in 2004, essentially nothing substantial has changed since then.
- JPKab 8y agoNothing has changed in 14 years with China's nuclear arsenal? Based on what evidence?
- jackpirate 8y agoThere have been no substantive changes, but of course there have been minor changes. If you're actually interested in learning more, there's a lot of open source information available. Lewis's blog http://armscontrolwonk.com http://armscontrolwonk.com is a great starting point, but covers a much greater scope.