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These particular aircraft that are being scrapped were very early-production A380s which were delivered significantly overweight (rumoured to be >5 tonnes!) Sin

These particular aircraft that are being scrapped were very early-production A380s which were delivered significantly overweight (rumoured to be >5 tonnes!) Singapore Airlines planned to return them years ago and is, in fact, replacing them with new A380s. Other airlines don't want them because they are the worst A380s flying: their extra weight means they burn too much fuel. Certainly the A380 program hasn't been quite as successful as Airbus would have hoped, but I'm not sure it was ever in any real danger of being scrapped. Those rumours may have just been put out by Airbus in order to pressure Emirates into moving ahead with their order. There are still airlines like British Airways who have a lot of old B747s in service that are approaching their EOL. It seems likely that BA will order more A380s to replace at least some of these. And in any case, there are still more than 100 unfulfilled A380 orders on Airbus's books, meaning there's enough demand to keep production running for quite a few years to come, even if there were no additional orders.

selectodude 8y ago
It seems likely that BA will order more A380s to replace at least some of these. They already bought their A380s. They're not buying any more. The 747 will most likely be replaced by A350-1000s or 777-9s.
- Reason077 8y ago
  BA wants to buy additional A380s - they just haven't yet been able to agree on the price. For an airline with a slot-constrained hub (Heathrow), it would be a step backwards to replace 747s with smaller aircraft as this would reduce their overall route capacity. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-19/airbus-is-said-to-be-in-talks-with-british-airways-on-more-a380s https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-19/airbus-is...
  - chillydawg 8y ago
    UK government just approved an extra runway at Heathrow, so capacity there (and onto NYC) will increase a fair bit.
    - Reason077 8y ago
      It will, if it actually gets built. The Heathrow third runway will be subject to the mother of all protest movements and legal challenges, so it'll be a decade or more before it could possibly get built - well after the remaining 747s are due for retirement.
  - selectodude 8y ago
    They've been hollering about that for awhile now, the deal was supposed to close by Feb 15, then April 15, and now talks are suspended altogether. If it isn't dead I'd be surprised.
J-dawg 8y ago
How does a plane end up being overweight? And how did the weight get reduced on later models?
- dionian 8y ago
  https://www.wired.com/2015/12/airbuss-newest-design-is-based-on-slime-mold-and-bones/ https://www.wired.com/2015/12/airbuss-newest-design-is-based...
- magduf 8y ago
  That's what I want to know, and why can't they be retrofitted to match the specs of the later models?
  - rbanffy 8y ago
    It's not always cheap to remove 5 tonnes of wiring. You need to count downtime and the cost of removal proper (disassembly, testing, reassembly, more testing) and compare it with the difference in price of scrapping it and replace with another model that's, perhaps, a better match for your desired capacity and the difference in the operational cost over the plane's lifetime. There are two-engine planes that promise to almost match the actual usage of the 380 for a lower operational cost.
    - magduf 8y ago
      Your last part there is wrong: as covered in many comments here, the A380 is still selling, in fact to the same carrier that's not renewing the leases on these early models. So it does still have a niche that it excels at; the problem is just that the early models have too much weight compared to current models. This isn't about the A380 vs. other models, this is about old-A380 vs. new-A380. I was just asking why it wasn't feasible to retrofit the old ones to match the specs of the new ones, which these carriers do want and are buying. I could understand if we were talking about cars, where there's a well-tuned assembly line and it's almost never cost-effective to retrofit, and the unit cost is actually shockingly low when you consider the complexity and cost of components, but large aircraft aren't like cars. (Aircraft assembly plants make a few dozen a year, car plants make hundreds of thousands.)
woodandsteel 8y ago
Maybe the A380 program will continue for many years, but it seems unlikely the program as a whole, including development costs, will ever earn a profit.

selectodude 8y ago

It seems likely that BA will order more A380s to replace at least some of these. They already bought their A380s. They're not buying any more. The 747 will most likely be replaced by A350-1000s or 777-9s.

Reason077 8y ago
BA wants to buy additional A380s - they just haven't yet been able to agree on the price. For an airline with a slot-constrained hub (Heathrow), it would be a step backwards to replace 747s with smaller aircraft as this would reduce their overall route capacity. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-19/airbus-is-said-to-be-in-talks-with-british-airways-on-more-a380s https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-19/airbus-is...
- chillydawg 8y ago
  UK government just approved an extra runway at Heathrow, so capacity there (and onto NYC) will increase a fair bit.
  - Reason077 8y ago
    It will, if it actually gets built. The Heathrow third runway will be subject to the mother of all protest movements and legal challenges, so it'll be a decade or more before it could possibly get built - well after the remaining 747s are due for retirement.
- selectodude 8y ago
  They've been hollering about that for awhile now, the deal was supposed to close by Feb 15, then April 15, and now talks are suspended altogether. If it isn't dead I'd be surprised.

J-dawg 8y ago

How does a plane end up being overweight? And how did the weight get reduced on later models?

dionian 8y ago
https://www.wired.com/2015/12/airbuss-newest-design-is-based-on-slime-mold-and-bones/ https://www.wired.com/2015/12/airbuss-newest-design-is-based...
magduf 8y ago
That's what I want to know, and why can't they be retrofitted to match the specs of the later models?
- rbanffy 8y ago
  It's not always cheap to remove 5 tonnes of wiring. You need to count downtime and the cost of removal proper (disassembly, testing, reassembly, more testing) and compare it with the difference in price of scrapping it and replace with another model that's, perhaps, a better match for your desired capacity and the difference in the operational cost over the plane's lifetime. There are two-engine planes that promise to almost match the actual usage of the 380 for a lower operational cost.
  - magduf 8y ago
    Your last part there is wrong: as covered in many comments here, the A380 is still selling, in fact to the same carrier that's not renewing the leases on these early models. So it does still have a niche that it excels at; the problem is just that the early models have too much weight compared to current models. This isn't about the A380 vs. other models, this is about old-A380 vs. new-A380. I was just asking why it wasn't feasible to retrofit the old ones to match the specs of the new ones, which these carriers do want and are buying. I could understand if we were talking about cars, where there's a well-tuned assembly line and it's almost never cost-effective to retrofit, and the unit cost is actually shockingly low when you consider the complexity and cost of components, but large aircraft aren't like cars. (Aircraft assembly plants make a few dozen a year, car plants make hundreds of thousands.)

woodandsteel 8y ago

Maybe the A380 program will continue for many years, but it seems unlikely the program as a whole, including development costs, will ever earn a profit.