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Any guesses where is the next Shenzhen going to be? Or is there now a dispersion/diaspora wave occurring that makes it difficult to determine a new center of gr

• baybal2 8y ago
  >dispersion/diaspora wave occurring that makes it difficult to determine a new center of gravity? Yes, dispersion is real. Local oldtimers say that 10 years ago, things were very convenient when one can walk from an RnD office to factory floor in 15 minutes. Now, with factories located in a circular pattern around Shenzhen city, you have to drive 2 hours from downtown Shenzhen to first locality with significant industrial presence. And if you get stuck in traffic doing so, it sucks. These commutes in between RnD offices and factory floors are giant time wasters. Not to say that this is even a bigger nightmare for component logistics, especially for companies with longer supply chains. To add to this, it takes really big money to drag high-end talent to places like Longhua. Living in a skyscraper apartment next to a collective farm with pig pens is not for everybody. Everybody wants to live in the fancy urban core, and those who can afford, certainly do. Yet, jobs there are few, unless you want to work as a starbucks barista. I'd say that Dongguan will take over Shenzhen for general light industry manufacturing, and Zhuhai for high-value service/products/stuff in next 5 years, and Shenzhen as it once was will be gone.