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2. See 1. We aren't disconnected from social trends. The cost of change is huge, because the cost of a software developer's time is extremely expensive. We are
by pnathan 8y ago
2. See 1. We aren't disconnected from social trends.
The cost of change is huge, because the cost of a software developer's time is extremely expensive. We are tightly networked into cities where the cost of housing is 2-8x elsewhere in the country. So that two week integration costs something like $7-10,000 to execute on.
The other interesting thing is the volume, the raw size of the software we have today. We have tens, hundreds of thousands of lines of code - and it's getting spread out in distributed systems.
1. I will make a flat statement without more than a basic justification... it's extremely expensive to live in the US and achieve a healthy life without extreme amounts of risk. Health care costs are absurd. Housing costs in a region with adequate city services is absurd. Housing costs in a region where you can find a job when you lose your current one is absurd. In the US therefore, most people have to orient on survival far more than they did 30 years ago.
For justification, I refer the reader to the Guardian. But. I also have spent time reading memoirs of different people who lived 1940-1990 and taking a note of how easily they could rent/buy/move/find work. It's far easier than anyone I've met my age. Those times are gone, gone, gone. Today, talk to most anybody who just graduated college, and you will hear a story of how finding work was hard.
Another aspect that is playing out is that the Boomers and "Greatest" generation basically vacuumed up a lot of the wealth and power, siloed it into their children or or haven't really released it themselves.
And when you're worried about your health care and mortgages, you don't really have a reasonable way to take a new risk on your own.
And when your employees are insisting on living in expensive places that mitigate risk, you pay the cost and refuse to take the risks, because they are stupid expensive.
- TimJYoung 8y agoAll good points. We definitely have some parasitical forces in our economy, and they are taking their toll. Anyone that says otherwise isn't really paying attention. As someone that experienced a wonderful time coming into the software industry in the late 80s, it's all very depressing. I want this same experience for young people today, but it's very hard to fight such macro trends. I think the answer is going to have to be at some point "stop playing this version of the game".
- pnathan 8y agoIt's very very tense right now, under the surface. It would be very interesting to know what proportions of the population broken out by 5-year segments have adequate employment and stable housing. I have a notion that things are going to unwind in a rapid exothermic way at a certain critical level of age & responsibility. At 18 you can tolerate a fair bit of risk; at 35, married with a kid, you want to move out of "survival" mode. I would guess that as the "millenials" trailing edge gets into mid-late 20s, changes will be aggressively pushed to a far harder degree. The post-millenial generation is said to be a fair bit socially different (but I havn't looked into how that change is transpiring) - and they will have an even shorter end of the stick. Speculatively, an interesting project would be to build out a dashboard to deduce instability based on age & employment. None of that relates to software, but we see software face to face. I think software is the most affluent part of society right now in general. Other industries appear to be much more unequal with their workers much more exploited.