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> I don't actually believe that any such system could ever reach any reasonable level of actual effectiveness due to the fundamental complexities of human behav

by deaps 8y ago

> I don't actually believe that any such system could ever reach any reasonable level of actual effectiveness due to the fundamental complexities of human behavior and circumstance... Absolutely it could - that would all be factored into the percentage. Human behavior and chance encounters are the exact reason you could never say 0% or 100%, however.

otakucode 8y ago
How many nodes do you need in your neural net in order to account for the variation of human behavior, the influence of happenstance, etc? When your model fails to converge, do you tell your government customer that you can't actually produce a score and give back the $200 million or whatever you got for the contract to create such a score?