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> The consulting firm McKinsey estimates that new tech could make two-thirds of the Indian IT workforce “irrelevant” by 2020. Indian newspaper headlines warned

> The consulting firm McKinsey estimates that new tech could make two-thirds of the Indian IT workforce “irrelevant” by 2020. Indian newspaper headlines warned of an IT jobs “bloodbath,” There was an amazing answer to this "bloodbath" fallacy during an AI/ML conference in Bangalore. One of the panelists talked about "Manure" - During the Victorian era there used to be lot of horse carriages. More horses meant more manure. So when automobiles were introduced there was a fear that lot of people relying on manure related jobs. But that never happened as automobile related jobs took over. Same is expected to happen during the so-called "bloodbath". > The level of offshoring of IT services has taken a massive dip since Trump got in If this is true then the headline about "plateauing" doesn't make sense. It is more of a blip. Next elections when there is a non-Trump President things might get better. That said, the article reads more like a history of Infosys than actual headline content. Major points are simply - Trump and AI.

Apocryphon 8y ago
What came first, that conference or this scene? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XM1YWl9-ZG0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XM1YWl9-ZG0
- thisisit 8y ago
  The conference was back in April. And the conclusion of the conference is different from the video.
lotsofpulp 8y ago
I wouldn't characterize it as a fallacy. Whether or not it is a "bloodbath" depends on whether or not the rate at which people can re-tool is matched with the rate at which their existing jobs are destroyed. The horse manure and automobile jobs could very well have completely different Dynamics allowing for a steady flow from one to the other, not to mention different population characteristics. It doesn't make sense to use it as some sort of proof that people in existing jobs/careers/skill sets will not suffer as there will always be something they can do.
kamaal 8y ago
>>Next elections when there is a non-Trump President things might get better. They will, a little though. But Indians abused through a lot of processes. I know plenty of people who climb the ladder through very bad workplace politics, sycophancy and nepotism. No system can work well for a long time under these sort of inefficient circumstances. Eventually a clean up is inevitable.
kumarvvr 8y ago
That would be reassuring provided existing IT workers can be re-skilled to handle AI/ML stuff and that's a very long shot. AI/ML stuff is extremely hard and requires a lot of creative and problem solving skills. You can't just split an AI/ML system into neatly delegate-able steps that can be outsourced.

Apocryphon 8y ago

What came first, that conference or this scene? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XM1YWl9-ZG0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XM1YWl9-ZG0

thisisit 8y ago
The conference was back in April. And the conclusion of the conference is different from the video.

lotsofpulp 8y ago

I wouldn't characterize it as a fallacy. Whether or not it is a "bloodbath" depends on whether or not the rate at which people can re-tool is matched with the rate at which their existing jobs are destroyed. The horse manure and automobile jobs could very well have completely different Dynamics allowing for a steady flow from one to the other, not to mention different population characteristics. It doesn't make sense to use it as some sort of proof that people in existing jobs/careers/skill sets will not suffer as there will always be something they can do.

kamaal 8y ago

>>Next elections when there is a non-Trump President things might get better. They will, a little though. But Indians abused through a lot of processes. I know plenty of people who climb the ladder through very bad workplace politics, sycophancy and nepotism. No system can work well for a long time under these sort of inefficient circumstances. Eventually a clean up is inevitable.

kumarvvr 8y ago

That would be reassuring provided existing IT workers can be re-skilled to handle AI/ML stuff and that's a very long shot. AI/ML stuff is extremely hard and requires a lot of creative and problem solving skills. You can't just split an AI/ML system into neatly delegate-able steps that can be outsourced.