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Estimates in software are effectively experienced guesses. This is in contrast to other industries, such as construction, where planning is done for months to
by wvenable 8y ago
Estimates in software are effectively experienced guesses. This is in contrast to other industries, such as construction, where planning is done for months to ensure the estimate of time and materials is accurate. If you attempt to treat one as the other, you run into huge problems.
Software isn't like building a bridge; it's like planning to build the bridge.
I'm pretty good at software estimating; I can roughly tell when something will take an hour, 2 hours, 4 hours, a day, a week, or month, 3 months, or 6 months -- in those intervals. It's more difficult and time consuming to get more specific than that.
I've also had a 1 day task blow out to entire week more than a few times. At that point, you have to start questioning the predictive value of estimates.
- ghettoimp 8y agoHeh. But even in construction projects, serious cost/time overruns are very common. I can't find a good source through quick googling, but what I do find is horrifying.
- jacques_chester 8y agoIndustrial Megaprojects by Edward W. Merrow essentially shows that we're comparing ourselves to a myth of our own invention.
- ghettoimp 8y agoThanks, wow, this looks like a really interesting read!
- jacques_chester 8y agoIt is actually quite fascinating to see how our cousins get on. He's quite blunt about the dynamics that cause failure and that relatively few megaprojects ever live up to their business case.