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> You cannot estimate what you don't know Exactly! It tried to express that and a strategy for handling unknowns here - https://medium.com/@hfuecks/what-donald

by harryf 8y ago

> You cannot estimate what you don't know Exactly! It tried to express that and a strategy for handling unknowns here - https://medium.com/@hfuecks/what-donald-rumsfeld-can-teach-us-about-software-estimates-1be22864e509 https://medium.com/@hfuecks/what-donald-rumsfeld-can-teach-u... My theory is the reason why we’re not getting any better at estimating software projects rests on a flawed assumption; because computers are binary and deterministic, we assume that the process of creating software must also be deterministic and quantifiable. Example: when Apple opened the App Store to 3rd party developers, would it be realistic to expert an accurate estimate from one of those developers, building their first app? There were so many unknowns; how does the build / publish process work? what will pass the review process? what about all these new APIs?

softawre 8y ago
Agile has a concept called the cone of uncertainty. The way we use this concept in practice is by doing small chunks and delivering fast, and the more chunks we have done with a project/feature/whatever the more likely our estimates get better over time because there is less work left and we are more familiar with the work now. http://www.agilenutshell.com/cone_of_uncertainty http://www.agilenutshell.com/cone_of_uncertainty
- AstralStorm 8y ago
  Sometimes there are no "small chunks" and this is where all agile approaches fail. If a thing does not work it is not a deliverable. Bonus points if the thing is not really testable because it is tied to platform/OS. (And you'd either have to implement it in full our spend weeks implementing a test harness.)
  - jacques_chester 8y ago
    > Sometimes there are no "small chunks" and this is where all agile approaches fail. I work at Pivotal. Cloud Foundry is a successful application of agile (XP + Lean trimmings) to a large, complex distributed system.

by harryf 8y ago

softawre 8y ago

Agile has a concept called the cone of uncertainty. The way we use this concept in practice is by doing small chunks and delivering fast, and the more chunks we have done with a project/feature/whatever the more likely our estimates get better over time because there is less work left and we are more familiar with the work now. http://www.agilenutshell.com/cone_of_uncertainty http://www.agilenutshell.com/cone_of_uncertainty

AstralStorm 8y ago
Sometimes there are no "small chunks" and this is where all agile approaches fail. If a thing does not work it is not a deliverable. Bonus points if the thing is not really testable because it is tied to platform/OS. (And you'd either have to implement it in full our spend weeks implementing a test harness.)
- jacques_chester 8y ago
  > Sometimes there are no "small chunks" and this is where all agile approaches fail. I work at Pivotal. Cloud Foundry is a successful application of agile (XP + Lean trimmings) to a large, complex distributed system.