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The reason that planning software development is bullshit is that you simply cannot know all the little details because in software development you're always do

The reason that planning software development is bullshit is that you simply cannot know all the little details because in software development you're always doing something you've never done before (because if you did you could just copy-paste your previous work). If you can plan and execute putting a person on the moon, you can plan and execute software development. I think the problem is the overwhelming majority of software development is so low stakes, easy to replace, assumed that bugs are par for the course, etc... that most orgs have stopped putting real effort into planning AND executing on that planning, instead just cargo culting the planning phase.

toasterlovin 8y ago
> If you can plan and execute putting a person on the moon, you can plan and execute software development. But the budget for planning is limited. To realistically plan out most software projects would entail almost as much work as simply executing on them. That level of resources for planning vs. execution is acceptable for putting people on the moon. Probably not for building a line of business app.
wvenable 8y ago
You've missed the point. Nobody can (or did) accurately estimate how long the planning and development would take to get someone on the moon. Half the materials weren't even invented yet in 1962. Nobody knew that Velcro was flammable in pure oxygen. Sure once all that expensive and unknowable planning and development is done, you can double-click that executable and put a man on the moon.
handbanana 8y ago
> If you can plan and execute putting a person on the moon, you can plan and execute software development Okay, but I think you've missed the point. Planning is hard, and you can't possibly account for all the variables. Everything after that statement I can agree with
harryf 8y ago
> If you can plan and execute putting a person on the moon I think you vastly overestimate the quality of the software and systems that took men to the moon. Try reading https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.space.com/26593-apollo-11-moon-landing-scariest-moments.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.space.com/26593-apollo-11-m... for example - you might conclude "they got lucky"
denzil_correa 8y ago
> If you can plan and execute putting a person on the moon, you can plan and execute software development. Do we have the planning and estimates of projects that are similar to "put people on the moon"? I'd like to see how the plan/estimates of these projects look like and how they change.
deleted 8y ago
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eitland 8y ago
Getting to the moon took many many man years of planning, experiments, material development and cost a few lives. It also involved several of the worlds leading scientists, and probably the best computers money could get at the time. If you can accept those kinds of preparations and also agree to not change the specs much (i.e. no, we aren't going to Mars instead) after we've started developing it I'll say we can get you a pretty nice estimate.

toasterlovin 8y ago

> If you can plan and execute putting a person on the moon, you can plan and execute software development. But the budget for planning is limited. To realistically plan out most software projects would entail almost as much work as simply executing on them. That level of resources for planning vs. execution is acceptable for putting people on the moon. Probably not for building a line of business app.

wvenable 8y ago

You've missed the point. Nobody can (or did) accurately estimate how long the planning and development would take to get someone on the moon. Half the materials weren't even invented yet in 1962. Nobody knew that Velcro was flammable in pure oxygen. Sure once all that expensive and unknowable planning and development is done, you can double-click that executable and put a man on the moon.

handbanana 8y ago

> If you can plan and execute putting a person on the moon, you can plan and execute software development Okay, but I think you've missed the point. Planning is hard, and you can't possibly account for all the variables. Everything after that statement I can agree with

harryf 8y ago

> If you can plan and execute putting a person on the moon I think you vastly overestimate the quality of the software and systems that took men to the moon. Try reading https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.space.com/26593-apollo-11-moon-landing-scariest-moments.html https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.space.com/26593-apollo-11-m... for example - you might conclude "they got lucky"

denzil_correa 8y ago

> If you can plan and execute putting a person on the moon, you can plan and execute software development. Do we have the planning and estimates of projects that are similar to "put people on the moon"? I'd like to see how the plan/estimates of these projects look like and how they change.

deleted 8y ago

[deleted]

eitland 8y ago

Getting to the moon took many many man years of planning, experiments, material development and cost a few lives. It also involved several of the worlds leading scientists, and probably the best computers money could get at the time. If you can accept those kinds of preparations and also agree to not change the specs much (i.e. no, we aren't going to Mars instead) after we've started developing it I'll say we can get you a pretty nice estimate.